Diggin’ Deep on UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs. Waterson – FS1 prelims preview

Bucking the recent trend of the FOX prelims actually being on FOX, they will be found on the usual home for Fight Night cards, FS1. When you look at the contests being offered, it isn’t difficult to figure out why.

It isn’t that there isn’t any potential stars to be found in the names doting the televised prelims. It’s just that those that have that potential – Irene Aldana, Colby Covington, and Henrique da Silva – are too early in their development to tell for sure if they are going to be boom or bust. And yet we get Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall in the co-main event…. Maybe I’m just talking out of my ass. I don’t know.

The FS1 prelims begin at 5:00 PM ET/2:00 PM PT.

Henrique da Silva (12-0) vs. Paul Craig (8-0), Light Heavyweight

From complete unknown to one of the brighter prospects in a division devoid of young blood in less than a year, da Silva has made quite the journey into the good graces of the MMA media. Given his youth and inexperience against top competition, the UFC continues to take it slow with him. This time he gets another similarly inexperienced opponent to what he has faced in Craig who is making his UFC debut.

It’s hard not to enjoy watching da Silva’s performances. Not called Frankenstein for nothing, he wades forward eating punch after punch, looking to get in shots. He has shown signs of being human, being knocked down by Jonathan Wilson, but has taken the shots with little sign of it affecting him for the most part. Primarily known for his kicks upon his UFC entry – which he still has in his back pocket — he has instead established himself as a brawler, constantly wading into the pocket to sling leather.

While Craig has the similarity of launching kicks to the upper levels of his opponents, everything else is directly opposite of what da Silva offers. Much more measured in his standup, Craig isn’t a big threat on the feet. His jab is used more to measure distance than to do any actual damage with the kicks being about the only thing that regularly scores points.

Craig’s real offense comes in scrambles and when the fight hits the ground. An aggressive submission artist, his wrestling is more enthusiastic than it is technical, with poorly timed single and double-legs being the source of his takedown attempts. While he’s good at getting ahold of a neck in transition, his specialty is the triangle choke in the midst of a scramble. Henrique has shown some submission ability of his own, scoring an armbar over Joachim Christensen in a manner that would do Craig proud. Still, I’d give the Scot a slight advantage in the grappling department.

I don’t like the way Craig matches up with da Silva. If Craig was a better wrestler, I’d be singing a different tune. Not only is he a subpar wrestler, he’s also undersized for the division despite his 6’4″ frame. I haven’t seen anything in his standup that leads me to believe he can compete with da Silva on the feet while I can’t help but think da Silva’s grappling ability would allow him to survive on the ground at the very least. If nothing else, da Silva’s fights are always fun. Da Silva via TKO of RD1

Cole Miller (21-10, 1 NC) vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2), Featherweight

It has become well publicized that this is Miller’s last fight on his contract after he gave a scathing interview where one of the primary topics was the UFC’s new ownership. Given his unhappiness with them and his recent performances, there is a very strong possibility that this will be the longtime veteran’s last appearance in the organization. Hirota could end up being the benefactor of a man who has lost his passion for the sport.

Miller’s performance against Alex Caceres was indicative of a man near the end of the line. He was incredibly flat against an opponent who took the contest on short notice. Miller fought like someone who didn’t want to be there, a fact that is directly in line with his recent comments. When he’s on, Miller is an aggressive striker, winging hard hooks to compliment his basic one-two combinations. Front kicks and a spotty jab are other regular parts of his arsenal. Despite his 6’1″ frame and 74″ reach, Miller’s defense is still full of holes that can easily be exposed.

Whether or not the significantly smaller Hirota — 5’7″ with a 67″ reach – will be up to exposing those holes is up for debate. He’s a sound striker, mixing in kicks with his jab and cross-heavy attack. However, he does fall into bouts of inactivity. He’s proven to be extremely durable, never having been finished via strikes, a major necessity given his tendency to stay in the pocket and eat what his opponent throws at him. Hirota has also proven capable of bullying his opponent in the clinch, an approach that wouldn’t be surprising given Miller’s length.

That approach wouldn’t come without risk either as Miller’s wheelhouse has long been his scrambling and grappling abilities. However, Miller is a poor wrestler who disguises his shots from the outside. With most of his takedowns coming from the clinch with trips, he probably wouldn’t mind Hirota taking the fight into close quarters. Hirota has strong submission defense, having survived Rani Yahya’s attack. Miller may not be able to finish Hirota, but he is just as capable of controlling him on the mat as Yahya is.

I get the feeling Miller is nearing the end. I fear his searing words towards the new ownership is partially due to his frustration with the recent downturn in the quality of his performances as well. The one thing I will credit him with is he made a nice comeback in the final round against Caceres, giving me hesitation to say he’s at the end of the line. I’m still going to go with Hirota as Miller no longer can be trusted, though I’ll be happy to see Miller make a return to form. Hirota via decision

Bryan Barberena (12-3) vs. Colby Covington (10-1), Welterweight

Is this where the Barberena hype-train ends? Hard not to get behind everyone’s favorite everyday man following his wins over Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves, but it is hard not to look at Covington’s 5-1 UFC record and not be impressed. By the way, anyone else find it wrong that Barberena wins his contest with Northcutt, hasn’t lost since that time, and yet it is Northcutt who is in the co-main event against a guy who beat up CM Punk? I’m just sayin’…

The reason I call Barberena an everyday man is due to his lack of athletic skills and rather plain looking frame. When he fought at 155, his biggest advantage was his size over his opponents. At 170, that advantage is nonexistent. Now it is his nonstop pace that he pushes in combination with his toughness. He mitigates his lack of athleticism by keeping the fight in close quarters, wearing out his opponent with a devastatingly busy clinch game whether it be dirty boxing, elbows, knees… whatever opening he can find, Barberena will use.

Whether or not he’ll be able to implement that strategy against the former collegiate All-American wrestler Covington is the question moving forward. While Covington can operate out of the clinch, he is doesn’t put the same hurting on his opponents that Barberena does. No, it’s Covington’s ability to drag Barberena to the ground as he doggedly chains his takedowns beautifully, which is exacerbated by his excellent athletic ability. Covington’s guard passes are smooth in addition to his smothering top game. Few can deal with his ground pressure.

Considering Covington’s well-documented striking issues and Barberena’s high output of offense, you’d think Barberena could stand a chance fighting from the outside. The problem is that Covington has been showing his progression in his standup abilities, scoring with a spinning back-elbow to finish off Johnathan Meunier. Barberena’s best strike standing, leg kicks, leaves him at greater risk to be taken down. Yikes.

Barberena has proven that he can’t be counted out. That doesn’t mean that I’m comfortable picking him in a contest against the likes of Covington, but he doesn’t ever give up and will present a unique challenge that Covington has yet to face. I anticipate Covington either dominates for an easy decision or scores a late finish. Covington via decision

James Moontasri (9-4) vs. Alex Morono (12-3), Welterweight

A curious bit of matchmaking as Moontasri is coming off of a one-sided loss to Alex Oliveira while Morono scored a controversial win over Kyle Noke. About the only thing I can think is that they are going for is a standup battle. Can’t say I’m going to complain about that.

Moontasri has the potential to be one of the most exciting strikers in the entire sport. The problem is every time he faces a decent athlete with a little bit of wrestling, he ends up being smothered and unable to let loose his impressive array of powerful kicks. Is Morono that athletic wrestler? Hardly. Despite owning a bigger frame than Moontasri, Morono may be the weakest wrestler Moontasri has faced. What Morono has going for him is he is still quite raw, meaning that he could still develop into a decent wrestler. He has had almost a year since we last saw him to work on that….

Does Morono stand a chance on the feet with Moontasri? I would say no given his footage on the regional scene, but he took the fight right to Kyle Noke and was able to steal the victory. He does a solid job of staying on the outside and throwing hard single shots, though he tends to get sloppy and is perfectly fine letting the fight degenerate into a brawl. Much like Moontasri, his signature is throwing out spinning back and wheel kicks, though he doesn’t have the same crispness to him that Moontasri does.

Where Morono does have an advantage is in the grappling department as he is aggressive in looking for submissions. It has turned into a bad thing from time to time as he is too comfortable staying on his back. Moontasri has sound submission defense, though the bigger question is if it will even come into play as it is doubtful Morono can get and keep him on the ground. If the fight does end by submission, it will likely be in a scramble, where Moontasri likely has the advantage.

Seeing as how this fight should end up staying on the feet the whole time, I struggle to see Morono stealing a win from Moontasri. Yes, Morono is a bit bigger and his will to win is impressive. But Moontasri’s explosion, ability to surprise, and underrated fists make him a difficult matchup for the youngster. It should be fun at the very least. Moontasri via TKO of RD2

Josh Emmett (10-0) vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1), Lightweight

So… are we allowed to call these guys prospects? Sure, Emmett has only fought once in the UFC while Holtzman is at three UFC appearances. But Emmett is now 31-years old and Holtzman comes in even older at 33. I suppose this is largely just a contest to see which one deserves their place in the UFC more over the other.

Emmett surprised many when he scored an upset victory over Jon Tuck on short notice. Owning a reputation as a brawler, he took a much more technical approach against Tuck, flashing a jab, kicks to all levels, and outside movement… a little bit of everything to keep him unpredictable. He can still be drawn into a brawl where he’ll wing hard hooks, though he has typically done well in the environment due to his durability and power in his fists.

Holtzman has been improving his effectiveness at range with counters and kicks to all levels, scoring a knockdown of Cody Pfister in his last contest with a head kick. He mixes punches to the body well and has shown a greater willingness to go for high-risk maneuvers such as flying knees. Despite the improvement, he is still much more comfortable making the fight a grinding affair against the cage. It isn’t always pretty, but his wrestling background helps him to control his opponents there while wearing them out with dirty boxing and short elbows.

Both have solid wrestling backgrounds, though Emmett didn’t use that side of his repertoire very much against a notoriously weak wrestler in Tuck for some odd reason. Holtzman on the other hand has relied heavily on it, finding most of his success in that field. However, Holtzman struggled to get Drew Dober to the ground. With Emmett owning a similar – if not better — wrestling background and possessing a similar amount of athleticism to Dober, it won’t be surprising to see Holtzman struggle.

I like this fight despite it being difficult for me to get too excited over it. Holtzman continues to improve with every contest, though both of his UFC wins have come against subpar competition. I like the savvy Emmett showed against Tuck, leading me to believe that he should be able to outwit Holtzman to secure a decision. Emmett via decision

Leslie Smith (8-7-1) vs. Irene Aldana (7-2), Women’s Bantamweight

Possibly the most underrated contest on the entire card, Aldana has the look of a future star in the eyes of many. Smith isn’t a star and never will be one with her physical limitations. However, she is the perfect star maker as she is as tough as they come and will leave it all in the cage every single time. In other words, she can make her opponents look like a million bucks in the eyes of the fans.

A quick glance at Smith’s last two losses – both TKO stoppages — might give you the false impression that she is becoming more brittle. Not true. Her ear was nearly ripped off her head in the loss to Eye while Smith, a natural flyweight, was facing the most dominant force in all of women’s MMA – Cris Cyborg — at a weight 15 lbs. above where Smith should be fighting. There is no reason to think Smith is not as durable as she once was. That’s needed in order for her to find success as she is a brawler and eats a lot of damage in the process.

Aldana is a very technical boxer, aggressively throwing short one-two combinations with the occasional leg kick for good measure. Exhibiting good movement, Aldana does a good job of avoiding damage while still getting in her shots. Once she has her opponent hurt, her killer instinct kicks in, mixing shots to the body and head until her opponent collapses. Most impressive is that she maintains her technique as she finishes them off.

Don’t expect wrestling or grappling to come into play. Aldana, still relatively new to the sport, has yet to fully develop her wrestling and grappling, though she has shown a knack for getting her opponent’s back within the midst of a scramble. Smith has sound takedown defense, but rarely if ever looks to take the fight to the ground. If nothing else, she has sound submission defense.

Many believe that Aldana is a star in the making. She has the frame and physical skills to find success, so long as the UFC doesn’t rush her too quickly. Smith is perfect for her UFC debut as she is tough as nails and capable of stealing a win from those less experienced than her. I still see Aldana pulling out the victory, but it should be close. Aldana via decision