Derrick Lewis and Travis Browne help figure out the heavyweight house of cards this February 19, 2017 at the Scotiabank Centre in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.

Single sentence summary:

Phil: The last generation of not-good-but-athletic takes on the next generation of not-good-but-athletic… at heavyweight.

David: Two of the most violent marionette dolls at heavyweight promise to help take the UFC heavyweight title off the back of its milk carton.

Stats?

Record: Derrick Lewis 17-4-1 NC Travis Browne 18-5-1 Draw

Odds: Derrick Lewis -115 Travis Browne -105

History lesson / introduction to the fighters

Phil: I can’t help but feel Derrick Lewis would be a bigger star if the UFC’s core demographic was a bit… different. Not to go all Tyron Woodley here, but the wider MMA hivemind tends to accept fighters quicker if they conform to certain stereotypes. Derrick Lewis does not. He’s about as far as you could feasibly get from, say, a Sage Northcutt. That said, there’s also the small factor, which we’ll likely address below, that stardom is normally at least partially a function of being good at the sport in question. Still, Black Beast up in this hoe.

David: You mean to tell me elegant racism might be a factor in explaining why stardom comes quicker to some more than others? Trigger warning: since I’m closer to being black than you, I will go half Tyron Woodley for you. To the extent that race is a factor, it’s similar to Hollywood’s version of racism, where stories can’t be trusted entirely to people of color. Think about Tom Cruise as the Japanese hero in the Last Samurai, the full body white wash of 21, or anything that inspired Avatar. Or even television, contrasting Martin and Living Single from the 90’s with Blackish and Rosewood, today. I’m recycling all points made by Ricky Rawls, but you get the point. The UFC is similar. Dana White just doesn’t know how to promote its colored stars. Pre-coke Jon Jones should have been a slam dunk. And Amanda Nunes deserved some benefit of the doubt, being the actual champion and all. None of this amounts to “that’s racist!”. It just amounts to Dana’s inability to promote black stars out of their “so athletic and explosive” foxhole. And to be fair, Lewis himself carbonates these stereotypes with a special flare.

Phil: Travis Browne is one of the many hopes of the heavyweight division who seemed to simply fall by the wayside. Along the way he’s picked up a lot of fan hate. Like, a lot. He just seems to be one of those guys who has a certain self-importance that grates with the aforementioned hivemind. Like Frank Mir I guess, but without the pseudo-intellectual bent or the occasional genuine introspection. Combining Browne with Rousey and Tarverdyan only accelerated the process. Still, he doesn’t seem quite as bad as he’s made out to be.

David: Damn. That’s cold, calling Mir pseudo-intellectual just because his analysis lacks depth despite being sincere, and he thought being in Circle of Pain was a good idea (to be fair, if someone had asked me to be in it, I would have said yes). Browne is a target of residue more than anything. Ronda gets criticized (Ring Magazine Ronda, however), Tarverdyan gets straight mocked, so of course Browne takes a vestigial hit. Of course, Browne’s real problem comes from the literal hits he can’t seem to avoid inside the cage.

What are the stakes?

Phil: Close to none. Random heavyweight main event. Maybe the winner fights Francis Ngannou or something.

David: Well, Lewis is on a five fight winning streak, so maybe that sets up a title fight on the day when heavyweight gold is at last worth something of value.

Where do they want it?

Phil: We often talk about fighters in terms of their preferences for space, or in terms of aggression, or even in more abstract ideas of how they view combat and how this informs their approach. We also talk about how skilled fighters are at the individual aspects of MMA, and here it is important to note: Derrick Lewis isn’t good at ANYTHING. There’s not a single aspect of MMA where he could be described as skilled. He’s a clunky striker with minimal defense, a mediocre wrestler, and a terrible mat grappler unless he has top position. What he does have going for him is that he’s absolutely enormous and packs revolting power into everything he throws. His primary improvements in his time in the UFC have been in improving his cardio, and adding some unpleasant looking body kicks into his arsenal, but essentially he is as close to a pure power fighter as you can get.

David: There’s nothing terribly figurative about Lewis’ nickname. He scraps with faux-autonomy, driven by pure amygdala. Lewis is a creature of propulsion, and relies on the raw momentum of pugilism. It has, for the most part, worked. Opponents have a difficult time with his approach, or are all too willing to accommodate his style. The Roy Nelson fight punctuated a necessary evolution in his game. I would never describe his cardio as great, but he’s made improvements, getting better at strike selection so that his heart can now keep up with his pace.

Phil: Travis Browne is another representative of a particular type of fighter who starts out dynamic and unstructured, then gradually becomes more structured over time, albeit at the cost of being effective in any way. Taverdyan may not be a great, or good, or even a mediocre MMA coach, but Browne has become a smoother, cleaner puncher under his tutelage. The problem is that Browne wears his technique like a sulking kid forced into a suit for his grandma’s birthday. I think Browne genuinely believes he can be a technical counterstriker, I think Tarverdyan believes he can be a technical counterstriker, but Browne’s subconscious does not agree with either one of them in the least.

A decent jab, a tricky right cross and some snap kicks to the body make up the bulk of Browne’s approach. While not much of a takedown artist, he can hit a few trips and sweeps, and is pretty vicious from top position. That’s pretty much it aside from the elbows near the cage that everyone(?) knows to avoid at this point.

David: Comparing him to a sulking kid forced into a suit might be the single most accurate description of him ever. I’m reminded of the circular logic of talent; how we recognize and identify talent only after the fact. Browne represents the circular logic of identity; how we assume a fighter that knows what they’re built for will lend itself toward better results. Despite the deserved criticism of Tarverdyan, I don’t believe Browne is a Diaz brother trapped in a beautiful violent body (seriously, psychology majors could write term papers on Dana’s Ronda/Diaz comments for decades). Nor is he a technician. He’s simply a fighter defined by flaws embedded in his DNA.

He’s not especially fast, nor does he have the movement to manage distance. Sure he has has nice options with that front kick, but he’s not adept at timing, and against other heavyweights, he gets easily crowded. Browne is a lot like Lewis in a lot of ways; the illusion of technique is precisely what makes them successful. The potential is realized just enough to grant them respect, and occasionally, wins. Can they progress beyond their technical boundaries?

Insight from past fights?

Phil: Why do people try to take Derrick Lewis down? It puzzles me somewhat. I get the basic idea: he hits hard, so put him in a place where he can’t do that. But… he’s not really a good striker! At all! In grappling with him, fighters like Roy Nelson and Abdurakhimov went strength-for-strength with an absolute behemoth and exhausted themselves. The simple fact that he is bigger and stronger than almost anyone means that even if people are winning in exchanges, they get tired faster than he does due to the sheer effort.

David: Browne’s last couple of fights were head scratching, but at least they reveal his likely gameplan, which benefits Browne because takedowns will definitely not be a factor in this one. In a way this fight is perfect for Browne in that it sets up to either lose spectacularly, or win spectacularly.

X-Factors?

Phil: How will Travis deal with not having Edmond in his corner? Will he really be able to build a gameplan without MMA’s greatest cornerman shrieking out hoarse encouragement like a furious combat sports mynah bird?

David: I don’t believe the Edmond factor is overstated in any way, but that doesn’t mean Rousey and Browne are prodigies of striking either. Browne has counterintuitive instincts, and good mechanics with questionable approaches. Even a modest makeover over these things won’t keep Lewis from swarming in, and finding potential success.

Prognostication:

Phil: These two fighters are not good. Lewis is a technical mess, and Browne seems to have almost no ability to pull the trigger. However, I feel like Lewis has been helped a bit of late by simply scaring people into grappling with him through sheer size and power. In an odd way, I don’t think Browne has enough imagination for that to work, and he’s physically able to compete with the Black Beast. I think he’ll sit there, box with Lewis, and probably make his way into a knockout, to his surprise as much as anyone else’s. Travis Browne by TKO, round 2.

David: Too much logic, Phil. This is MMA. Not a horror movie. The black guy doesn’t die first in this story. Derrick Lewis by TKO, round 1.