Diggin’ Deep on the UFC Fight Night 90: Dos Anjos vs Alvarez main card

So how does the UFC intend to warm up for the title fight between Rafael dos Anjos and Eddie Alvarez? With heavyweights of course. Slow, plodding heavyweights that probably won’t provide much in terms of diverse skill sets. But hey, at least we can expect a KO…right?

The smart money says yes, as the heavyweights are Roy Nelson and Derrick Lewis. Nobody has accused them of hitting softly and they haven’t been shy about engaging in the past. Well…for the most part. The other offerings are a promising newcomer meeting a master of violence and an Irishman looking to get back on track. No, not that Irishman…

Roy Nelson (21-12) vs. Derrick Lewis (15-4, 1 NC), Heavyweight

How can you not love this fight? Two of the heaviest hitters in the entire sport will be looking to knock the blocks off of one another.

This fight is all about remaining relevant for Nelson. Having dropped five of his last six prior to picking up a win in his last appearance, Nelson knows his days of calling for a title shot are long gone. To his credit, all of those losses came to guys who’ve at least competed for a major title at some point. In other words, he isn’t losing to nobodies so he still has some value as a gatekeeper.

Lewis is looking to break through into the elite and Nelson would be the largest scalp he has nabbed by far if he proves successful. Perhaps best known for his social media presence, Lewis has made enough improvements recently to suggest he’s ready to start fighting contenders. He’s never won a fight by decision, so his penchant for finishing fights is something the UFC is excited about in terms of marketability.

Nelson’s game is almost solely dependent on him landing his powerful right hand, so much so that it can be seen locked and loaded to throw for a good chunk of the contest. He does have a lot of subtle tricks he uses to lure opponents into his range so he can land it, but those that are experienced and savvy have been able to avoid falling into that trap. The biggest question is whether or not Lewis is clever enough to avoid walking into the power shot. Jabs, hooks, and leg kicks are part of Nelson’s arsenal to set up the kill shot. Despite coming off of his first decision victory in the UFC, Nelson isn’t a volume striker and expecting him to win in that manner is foolish.

There are no subtleties to Lewis when it comes to his striking. He is trying to knock your block off and that is all there is to it. He has the physical strength to make this approach work and has gotten better at picking his spots to attack. Pushing his opponent against the fence so they have minimal room to run from his onslaught is his preferred method of attack whether it be a takedown or his heavy punching attack. His gas tank has been called into question as he puts everything into his punches which saps his stamina, though that hasn’t been as big of a problem recently as it was in the fairly recent past.

Though Nelson’s BJJ has been lauded, it has rarely been seen for about a decade. If there is a fight where it could make an appearance, this would be it as Lewis isn’t much of a grappler and getting him to the ground has been an easier task than one would think when looking at the mountain of a man. He can thank his lack of a formal wrestling background for that. Nelson has mixed in takedown attempts in recent fights and has found more success than most expected. His belly has helped make him difficult to move if he can get the side control so he can either work ground and pound (that is more busy than effective) or look for a choke.

If Lewis gets the top, it’s hard to see Nelson surviving. Nelson’s gut is a negative for him if he ends up on his back, as it makes it harder for him to sweep or scramble. Even more worrisome is Lewis’ extremely powerful ground strikes. There may not be a more fearsome ground and pounder, as his power translates very well to the ground. Similar to Nelson, his large frame makes him difficult to get out from underneath.

Nelson’s usefulness shouldn’t be expired if he loses this, as he is still a fan favorite due to his everyman appearance. But he is now 40 years old and chins don’t last forever. Perhaps I wouldn’t be so concerned if he wasn’t so prone to taking a lot of damage in his fights. He could end up cracking Lewis’ chin which has proven crackable, but I foresee him giving Lewis the biggest win of his career thus far. Lewis via TKO of the second round

Alan Jouban (13-4) vs. Belal Muhammad (9-0), Welterweight

One of the UFC’s premier action fighters welcomes one of the most promising newcomers to hit the scene in quite a while. This one could be flying under the radar.

Despite being a former model, Jouban has no qualms about eating a punch in the face as he is perfectly willing to get down in the trenches like few others. Three of his four UFC wins came by first round KO/TKO stoppage, a good indicator of the level of violence he usually brings to the table. If the UFC could instill his fighting style into their entire roster, they would gladly do so. He’s probably too old to give a push at 34, but he’s still good to give the audience a show.

Muhammad has been floating around Titan FC for the last year or so hoping to catch the UFC’s attention, and finally did so with an impressive performance over former WSOF champion Steve Carl. The reason it took them so long to notice him was that was his first finish in three years. He wasn’t facing pansies on the regional scene, but being unable to finish his opponents was a fair cause for concern. Regardless, the 27-year-old Muhammad has one of the most complete skills sets of any recent newcomer as he steps in for an injured Nordine Taleb.

There is no better way to describe Jouban than as a brawler. He pushes forward out of a southpaw stance mixing in kicks with his vicious punching combinations. Jouban is at his best is in the clinch, wearing out his opponent with knees while generating an ungodly amount of power in such a short distance – a single punch or elbow are capable of earning a stoppage. Like any true brawler, Jouban tends to eat a lot of damage, though his chin has held up well for the most part. Every now and then he’ll mix in a change-of-pace or reactive takedown, but his wrestling isn’t something he likes to turn to. He’s used it at times to just push the action against the cage where he can work his art and he’s perfectly happy with that result.

While Muhammad isn’t a brawler himself, his style should blend well with what Jouban has to offer in terms of creating some good action inside the cage. A volume puncher who alternates between being the aggressor and countering, Muhammad throws a lot of combinations while mixing in hard leg kicks as well. His hands are extremely active, as he keeps them moving while mixing in feints to keep his opponent guessing when and where he’ll thrown from. Footwork is another notable strength as he uses fantastic angles to attack with his combinations. Muhammad doesn’t have a lot of power, but he is accurate and pushes a fast pace that usually wears down his opponent by the end of the fight.

Both have exhibited similar abilities on the ground. Rather than looking for submissions, they’re content to find a position in which they can drop fists. Jouban showed the more active game off of his back with a major willingness to throw strikes from there, but both would rather scramble back to their feet and are pretty good at doing just that.

Due to his lack of finishes, Muhammad hasn’t gotten the attention he deserves as a top prospect and he isn’t getting any favors in facing Jouban in his first UFC test. It doesn’t mean it isn’t a winnable contest for him though. Jouban’s struggles have come against more technical fighters which tells me he’s going to struggle with the stylings of Muhammad. Should be a lot of fun though with action likely coming in all three rounds.Muhammad via decision

Joe Duffy (14-2) vs. Mitch Clarke (11-3), Lightweight

Did you know Joe Duffy is the last man to defeat Conor McGregor? Wait…that doesn’t apply anymore. Regardless, the UFC is still looking to get the Irishman back on track with this matchup against nice guy Clarke.

Having Nate Diaz ruin his biggest claim to fame has been the least of Duffy’s worries this year. Getting brutalized at the hands of Dustin Poirier to kick off the year looked bad, as Poirier was his first major step up in competition since coming back to the sport after a hiatus into professional boxing. Duffy needs an emphatic win here to reestablish himself as a potential contender in the near future and justify the massive hype that has surrounded him.

Did you know Clarke is the last man to defeat Al Iaquinta? Hmm…it doesn’t have the same ring as being the last man to beat McGregor. It’s still an impressive feat, as most expected Clarke to have washed out of the UFC by now. Sitting at 2-3 in the UFC and coming off of a loss to Michael Chiesa, there is a strong likelihood that he needs a win here in order to keep his job.

Even though Duffy’s professional boxing foray has been beaten over our heads time and time again by the UFC announce teams, there is good reason that it has been brought up as Duffy has legitimately benefited from that stint. Owning exceptionally fast hands, he usually fights with his hands low in order to entice opponents to throw first. Once he gets that response, Duffy counters with hard punches in short combinations. If he wants to be the one to push the action, he leads with a stinging jab that sets up his aforementioned combinations beautifully. Head movement and footwork help him avoid most damage, though he showed some weakness to Poirier’s intense pressure. While Duffy isn’t a horrible wrestler, Poirier showed he can be taken down and held down.

That’s good news for athletically challenged Clarke. Even though he has a reputation as a wrestler and grappler, Clarke has struggled mightily to get fights to the floor as he lacks explosion to drive his opponents to the mat with consistency. He’ll chain together his attempts in at least creating a scramble, as he has a nose for sinking in chokes in transition. He can also lull his opponent into a false sense of security as he did to Iaquinta before securing a sneaky brabo choke from off of his back. On the feet, he appears awkward and clunky with his strikes along with minimum power. Overall the sum of Clarke is greater than the individual parts as he simply finds a way to make his seemingly ragtag skill set work.

Despite Duffy being at a disadvantage on the ground and Clarke weaker on the feet, they are far from helpless from there. Duffy actually has more than twice as many submission wins as he does finishing with strikes while Clarke landed more significant strikes than Chiesa in his loss. Then again, a lot of Duffy’s subs were set up by knocking his opponents to the ground while Chiesa, though scrappy as hell, isn’t a great striker himself.

The UFC has put Clarke in situations where he was supposed to lose before only for him to surprise, so it is a bit hard to simply discount the Canadian. But the gulf between his physical skills and those that Duffy possesses is too great to ignore. Be prepared to hear plenty about Duffy’s professional boxing from the announce team and then see why they won’t shut up about it. Duffy via TKO of the second round

Odds (by Odds Shark)

Roy Nelson (-164) / Derrick Lewis (+136)

Alan Jouban (-175) / Belal Muhammad (+135)

Joseph Duffy (-380) / Mitch Clarke (+260)