Canelo vs. Chavez Jr: Can Alvarez fight hard for 12 rounds?

Boxingnews24.com

By Eric Baldwin: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) is a strong favorite to hand former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs) his third defeat of his career on May 6 in their fight on HBO PPV. Canelo’s promoter Oscar De La Hoya says this is the fight that the boxing world has asked for. The fans want to see Canelo and Chavez Jr. fight each other, and he’s giving them what they want. I don’t know if that’s true.

There’s definitely a portion of the fan base that were asking for the Canelo-Chavez Jr. fight, but that was mostly 5 years ago when Chavez Jr. was still an active fighter. He’s become an irregular fighter like James Kirkland since 2012.

The 26-year-old Canelo is seen as the much younger fighter than Chavez Jr. for some reason despite the fact that he’s only 4 years older at 30. One reason why Chavez Jr. is viewed as so much older is the fact that he dropped out of the picture in boxing when he stopped fighting on a frequent basis against the higher echelon fighters. But the reality is, Canelo is not much younger than Chavez Jr.

The two of them are roughly the same age, and it’s not possible to separate them in the youth department. Canelo is the faster guy, and much more elusive. However, Chavez Jr. balances that out by being bigger, stronger and with a better chin. I know some boxing fans will argue with that point by saying that Canelo has never been knocked out before in his career. However, Canelo has been stunned in the past in a number of his fights, and that tells me that he’s not good at taking punishment as Chavez Jr.

The Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. fight breaks down to these important areas:

– Speed: Chavez Jr. is going to be giving up a great deal of hand speed to the faster Canelo.

– Power: Chavez Jr. might have a little more punching power than Canelo due to his size. Chavez Jr. might not be quite as heavy as Canelo, but he’s got height and that enabled him to get leverage on his punches. Canelo is built more like a wrestler than a puncher. Wrestlers aren’t known for being big punchers. If Chavez Jr. hits Canelo with one of his big body shots, we could see a knockout. Canelo hasn’t been fighting body punchers during his career. He’s been fighting a lot of guys that head hunt. Canelo has become really good at using head movement to evade the head shots. It’s a lot harder to avoid getting hit to the body, especially if you’re built as wide as Canelo is.

– Experience: The experience area is pretty even. Both fighters have a lot of experience.

– Stamina: Chavez Jr. has the better stamina by far compared to Canelo. We’ve never seen Chavez Jr. have a problem fighting hard for 3 minutes of every round. We have seen Canelo take rest breaks in many of his fights. He took 6-round rest break in his fight with Austin Trout in spending the second half of the fight leaning against the ropes like an older fighter.

– Ring IQ: Some boxing fans would say that Canelo has the better ring IQ. I’m not sure that he does. Canelo makes a lot of mistakes in his fights with the way he tries to box guys that are better boxers than him. In Canelo’s fights against Austin Trout, Mayweather and Erislandy Lara, he tried to box those fighters rather than using his weight and power advantage. Because of that, Canelo made those fighters a lot tougher than they otherwise would have been. That’s not to say tht Canelo would beat all three of them if he fought a smarter fight. It’s more to say that Canelo didn’t fight to the best of his capability in all three of those fights. Canelo also made other mistakes by resting on the ropes. It was not smart of him to do that.

– Defensive skills: Canelo is the better defensive fighter mainly because Chavez Jr. is totally preoccupied with his offense most of the time in his fights.

– Chin: This is an area that goes to Chavez Jr. He takes a punch better than Canelo. Chavez Jr. might have the best cin in the super middleweight division. Chavez Jr. was born with an ability to soak up punishment in his fights.

– Trainer: This area goes to Chavez Jr. He has the legendary trainer Nacho Beristain trining him for this fight. There’s no way that Canelo’s trainer Chepo Reynoso compares with the likes of Beristain. It’s night and day. Beristain has been around for ages and knows a lot about boxing. That doesn’t mean that Canelo can’t win. It just means that Reynoso is not going to outthink Beristain when it comes to giving instructions in the corner on the night of the fight.

– Size: It’s been talked about that the 6’0” Chavez Jr. is a lot bigger than the 5’9” Canelo, and possibly the heavier fighter when the two of them get inside the ring on May 6. I think the Chavez Jr’s size advantage is overblown. To be sure, Chavez Jr. is taller than Canelo and with a longer reach, but he might not be heavier. Canelo is no longer weighed in on the night of his fights, and there are some who believe he weighs in the ballpark of 185. Chavez Jr. has said recently that he’s weighing 179. If that weight stays where it’s at right now, Canelo will be the heavier fighter possibly on the night of the fight by roughly 5 pounds.