The folly of prediction

 

By Adam Godfrey: We live in a world where what is unexpected should be expected. Boxing is not Politics with a capital P (although there is certainly such a thing as the politics of Boxing) and yet it still adheres to the principles of human unpredictability that dictate all other facets of our experience.

There is enormous folly in predicting with self-confident surety the outcome of a Boxing match when so much relies on so many variables. I personally encouraged several people to bet their houses, their actual houses, on Tony Bellew being knocked out by David Haye within three rounds. My confidence was both justified and completely misplaced. On paper, Bellew had an entire world of hurt coming to him when he stepped in the ring with the massive punching, slick Boxer that is David Haye. Considered one of the hardest punching Heavyweights in recent times, Haye should have theoretically been able to taunt the significantly smaller man for a full two rounds before going in for the kill and knocking the Liverpudlian out whenever he fancied ending the fight.

I’m sure Haye had a similar impression of how the bout would pan out. He showed little urgency during the front straight, seemingly comfortable in showing off his size and posing following each ineffective punch aimed at the head of the abrasive Bellew. I’m of the belief that had Haye committed to knocking out his opponent in the first round, rather than fart-arsing around for the supposed benefit of his audience, he would have done. It was as round two finished that I first started to feel relieved that none of my friends had shown faith in my powers of prediction and subsequently offered their abode to the nearest bookmaker. In round six Haye’s Achilles tendon collapsed, and the rest is history. What followed was one of the most difficult series of rounds of Boxing to watch I’ve ever experienced, as Haye hobbled around the ring, essentially a lame duck, before the fight was mercifully stopped by the referee in the eleventh round in the favor of Tony Bellew. Although Haye has some form when it comes to injuring himself (and pointing fervently to that injury as an excuse), nobody could have predicted that he would mangle such an important part of his body at the unfortunate time that he did.

If sport, and Boxing specifically, were predictable, then nobody would watch it. We do not watch our chosen obsession because we know with certainty what will occur. It would be as dull as dishwater. But we as Boxing fans cannot seem to help ourselves. For every keyboard warrior absolutely convinced that Kell Brook would have too much experience and too high a Boxing IQ for Errol Spence Jr. to handle, there was one convinced that the power and clear talent of the American would overwhelm the Brit. As it happened, the result was a combination of the two; Brook won the first half of the fight by being smart and, in all probability, harking back to his experiences in the ring dueling with Gennady Golovkin. In the second, Spence projected his own will, bullying and ultimately grinding down the Champion with his superior power and warrior spirit, eventually breaking his opponent’s eye socket and claiming a deserved TKO win (one which will not go unnoticed by the other elite fighters in the Welterweight division; do not expect to see them clamoring to fight the new IBF Champion, although I’d love to eat my words).

Another who cannot seem to help himself from making bold predictions is the acclaimed trainer of ‘GGG’, Abel Sanchez. Before the recent fight with Danny ‘Miracle Man’ Jacobs, Sanchez was adamant in interviews that the Brooklyn native would not be able to withstand the barrage of physical abuse waiting for him in the loaded fists of Golovkin. Golovkin beats Jacobs ‘decisively and easily’, Sanchez told ESPN. Again, as with my prediction regarding Haye and Bellew, this was probably, in many ways, a justified statement on paper given Golovkin’s penchant for destroying his opponents up until that point. But just as I was wrong about Haye v Bellew, Sanchez was wrong about Golovkin v Jacobs. Few had the foresight to claim that Jacobs would knowingly miss his IBF weigh in prior to the fight, a move which guaranteed that he could not be able to win their belt regardless of the outcome, but which also meant he was not constrained by the rehydration clauses imposed upon him by the sanctioning body. As such, he came into the ring noticeably bigger than Golovkin, which (and you can argue against this conclusion, I’m big enough and ugly enough to take it) resulted in Golovkin being considerably warier of the danger posed by Jacobs than he otherwise would have. As a result, Golovkin did not beat Jacobs either decisively or easily. He had to grind out a difficult and, to some, controversial decision, which his demeanor did not suggest he was convinced he would be awarded moments to prior to his hand being raised aloft, and immediately after.

Sanchez persists on making these bold statements, which as a fan of Golovkin I am content to admit make me cringe. Against Canelo I believe Golovkin should be the clear favorite. But this is sport at the highest level, and Canelo is a talented fighter in his prime. It is simply impossible to say for sure what will transpire when the two face each other, and so these bold predictions are futile. On the morning of the 17th of September there will be a proportion of fight fans gloating in the light of the accuracy of their forecasting skills, this is not in doubt. But a broken watch is still correct twice a day, and as such, anybody can claim to be the new Boxing Nostradamus once the fight is over without it being necessarily true.

My motivation for writing this piece is not to discourage fight fans from speculating or debating, it is a vital part of the process; healthy debate should never be stifled. My motivation is to urge people away from making definitive predictions months before the event has even taken place. Instead they should open their minds and engage in a way that brings opposing opinions together to form a decent discussion. If you disagree, please do not hesitate to let me know.

Direct any abuse to my twitter, @adamgod86
Or praise, I’m not fussed