UFC Fight Night 92: Rodriguez vs Caceres Fight Pass prelims preview

The UFC continues to be schizophrenic in its handling of Fight Pass as it goes from featuring one of the least cared about fights at UFC 201 to featuring the most star-laden fight on the whole card for UFC Fight Night 92. I will admit that this is one of the worst cards in terms of name value in recent memory, but wouldn’t that give them more reason to feature their name value on FS1?

Even if Cub Swanson and Tatsuya Kawajiri never fight for UFC gold, both have carved out notable careers with each of them ranking near the top of the standings of their weight classes at various points. Both have also shown that they still have something left in their tanks. Here’s hoping that they do.

The Fight Pass prelims start at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT.

Cub Swanson (22-7) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-9-2), Featherweight

By far the most established fighters on the card, Swanson and Kawajiri don’t appear to be making a run to the top anytime soon. That doesn’t mean they can’t put on an entertaining show….

Swanson’s name was in title contention as recently as 2014 following a six-fight win streak before having his momentum halted with back-to-back losses to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. While the losses removed him from contention, he has since rebounded with a comfortable decision win over Hacran Dias this past April to let the world know that he can still be a viable gatekeeper to the elite of the division.

Kawajiri has been fighting professionally since 2000 with the majority of his career taking place at lightweight. The Japanese legend dropped to featherweight five years ago with his only losses in his new division coming to Clay Guida and Dennis Bermudez. Coming off of the loss to Bermudez, no one expects Kawajiri to make a title run at the age of 38. He has put forth quality efforts in the waning years of his career and there is no indication that he is about to drop off at this point.

Considering he has been around since 2000, it is no surprise that Kawajiri’s strategy is very much a throwback to yesteryear. Known as “Crusher”, his primary objective is to get his opponent on their back and unleash a torrent of vicious ground and pound to finish the fight. Nearly impossible to shake once he achieves mount, he’s happy using a submission as his opponent squirms beneath him looking to escape if he can’t land accurate punches. Arm-triangle chokes or taking the back for a RNC are his preferred method of submission.

As opponents typically know that this is coming, Kawajiri has tried to add more diversity to his striking without much success. He attempted to circle using a lot of spinning techniques against Bermudez only to have Bermudez find success picking him apart on the outside. He’s at his best using his straightforward power punches that primarily serve to cover distance as he looks for single and double-leg takedowns.

Swanson should have a massive advantage as he offers a dynamic striking arsenal. Offering a little bit of everything, jabs and kicks are the major staple of his arsenal and he’s just as comfortable leading the dance as he is countering. He’s at his best mixing kicks in the middle of his punching combinations, something opponents have difficulty preparing for. Despite his reputation as a striker, Swanson is a very accomplished grappler himself. He isn’t going to take the fight to ground himself outside of the occasional reactionary takedown, but he can survive with the best of them and offer a threat off of his back if he isn’t taken seriously.

Most see this as an easy win for Swanson. While I favor Swanson, I think it’s foolish to count out Kawajiri. Swanson’s takedown defense has been sound against most of the division, but Kawajiri isn’t most of the division. Few can match Kawajiri’s strength and I see him getting Swanson down early in the fight. However, Kawajiri’s gas tank hasn’t served him very well as of late. Swanson will pick up the pace in the second round and should take the over with sheer volume from there. Kawajiri can eat a lot of punishment, so look for him to be there until the end. Swanson via decision

Chase Sherman (9-1) vs. Justin Ledet (6-0), Heavyweight

While the UFC has been signing every heavyweight that seems to show any sort of potential, they have a couple of rarities in Sherman and Ledet in the sense that they have yet to hit their 30’s.

There are quite a few similarities in the narrative of each. Neither have ever gone the distance with only one fight between them even leaving the first round. Neither have a true victory over a quality opponent as Sherman’s win over UFC vet Jack May was due to May’s knee giving out a minute into the fight. As I’ve already mentioned, both are babies in the land of dinosaurs as Sherman is a mere 26-years old with Ledet clocking in at 27. Neither are blue chip prospects either, but they have shown flashes to indicate that it is possible for them to a viable UFC career.

Ledet’s path to the Octagon is where the tale veers off. Fighting at light heavyweight in the beginning of his career, he ended up taking almost four years off from the sport as he pursued a boxing career where he went 5-0. Upon his return to the sport earlier this year he came back much heavier, clocking in at 246. He was much slimmer at 232 in his last effort which will spark talks about him dropping back to light heavyweight. It may be possible, but at 6’4″ with an 80″ reach its easy to see where dropping to 205 could produce negative returns.

The problem is that he is very much a mystery as footage on his first fight since his return is hard to find and the second bout ended quickly following an eye injury to his opponent. He shows good movement from his time in boxing and has more submission victories than anything else indicating he has a sound grappling game as well. It can take time to transition from one sport to the other, so it will be interesting to see if he has any sort of difficulty adjusting.

Sherman is the same height with a similar reach at 79″ with a much wider frame, coming in at 243 with minimal flab on his frame. He shows good athleticism and is incredibly raw, having only turned pro in 2014. While he throws heavy leather with every single one of his wins coming by way of KO/TKO, his striking is still very clunky with his chin there to be tested. His wrestling is still raw as too, executing trips to go to the ground as opposed to single or double-legs. He doesn’t show much control on the ground, but has enough power in his ground strikes that he can end a fight from there if he can get the angles he is looking for.

Don’t even consider betting on this fight unless you have some valuable insider information as this is very much a crapshoot. Sherman looks to be the better overall prospect while Ledet looks more polished at this point. He’s also smaller than Sherman which could make a big difference if grappling or clinch fighting comes into play. Don’t put stock into my pick as you can it boils down to so much unknowns. Sherman via TKO of RD1