Accuracy, volume, even power!? Adesanya has Romero out-gunned according to UFC 248 alternative stats

Bloodyelbow.com

UFC 248 goes down Saturday night in Las Vegas and with it the first title defenses for two of the promotion’s newer champions.

With four fights in 2018 and three in 2019, undefeated middleweight champ Israel Adesanya continues his busy schedule by welcoming the “Soldier of God” Yoel Romero into the Octagon. And with only four fights in her entire UFC career, but all dominant performances, the strawweight queen Weili Zhang looks to keep her crown from going to former division great Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Let’s dive into the stats in what looks to be a fun card.

Remember, what you’re about to read are not official UFC statistics. They’re alternative stats generated from official statistics designed to (1) give more weight to the recent present than the distant past and (2) not let one huge or horrible performance dominate the data.

See the notes at the bottom for definitions of certain statistics and check out an earlier piece for an explanation of how this works.

Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero

I’m having a bit of deja vu studying the statsheet for this matchup.

In the statistical preview for Shevchenko vs. Chookagian at UFC 247, it was hard to find a single metric which swung Chookagian’s way. And about a month later, here we are yet again… sort of. Outside of the clinch, it’s hard to find a single, meaningful statistic that edges Romero’s way, and my statsheet is massive.

You think Romero’s the power striker? That’s very true when compared to an average middleweight, but not against the champ. Adesanya drops opponents in 38.5% of his rounds (25.6% for Romero), has a knockdown rate of 0.72 (0.35 for Romero), and a knockdown percentage of 6.5% (3.4% for Romero).

You think Romero’s the volume striker? Ha! Just kidding. We all know that’s not true.

You think Romero and his Olympic silver medal have a wrestling advantage? At distance, he shoots for takedowns an average amount and lands a subpar 22% while Adesanya defends at 88%. But the clinch is a different story.

Romero spends 32 seconds of every five minutes clinched up and he controls against the cage 72% of the time while Adesanya gets controlled 79% of the time. Romero actually becomes a volume power striker in the clinch (39.1 attempts per five minutes in the position, P5M, to 23.0 average) and he attempts 71% more clinch takedowns than average while landing at an improved, yet still subpar, 35%.

However, there are two problems for Romero here. The first is that Adesanya’s clinch takedown defense is a solid 82%. Second is Romero only spends 13 seconds of every five minutes with top control on the ground, and Adesanya is only on his back for six seconds of every five minutes. The sequence of takedowns landed against the champ has gone 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (Kelvin Gastelum was the latest “1”). Perhaps more impressively, the sequence of Adesanya standing back up is exactly the same: 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0. He gets back to his feet every single time, and it doesn’t take him long to get there where he might be taking damage along the way. The only opponent to have ground control on Adesanya for more than a minute was Marvin Vettori in Stylebender’s second UFC appearance.

Adesanya’s ability to get back to his feet has been exceptional so far with 16.2 standups P5M being controlled (2.2 average). Throw in that opponents get up on Romero at a 10.4 clip and we’ve got a recipe for a standup affair. The big question is how much will take place at distance and how much in the clinch?

At distance, the alternative stats are all Adesanya. He’s either knocked down or busted up the face of every single one of his opponents except Anderson Silva. He and Romero are similar with their head jab volume, but Adesanya lands 45% to Romero’s 35%. The champ throws 8.1 more distance power strikes than Romero P5M and lands at 51% to Romero’s 42%. When it comes to defense, Adesanya only absorbs 16% of power shots to his head while Romero eats 28%. The net effect is that Adesanya runs +1.7 and +11.5 in head jab and overall power strike differentials P5M while Romero checks in at an unimpressive -0.3 and -2.4.

Normally those poor distance differentials can be overcome with power (which Romero has) or excellent grappling, but as we’ve already seen Adesanya’s power metrics are even better, he’s never been knocked down, and if Romero is able to take Adesanya down, he’s probably popping back up to his feet before you can chug your beer.

The clinch is where the alternative stats give an edge to Romero. And while he certainly has the ability to end the fight with a single strike (he’s never even attempted a submission), Adesanya’s statistical ability to do so is even greater. And Romero falls to the canvas a decent amount (in 7.9% of his alterantive stats rounds, 9.6% average).

This may not end up a barn-burner, but it should be fun nonetheless. And hey, at least the rest periods will be can’t miss television with the whole “What might Romero try next?” thing going on.