Artur Beterbiev vs. Enrico Koelling preview and analysis

By Allan Fox: Artur Beterbiev (11-0, 11 KOs) and Enrico Koelling (23-1, 6 KOs) will be fighting next month on July 29 in an IBF light heavyweight title eliminator in Quebec, Canada. This has been a long haul for Beterbiev to get a title shot, because he and Sullivan Barrera were supposed to fight in the IBF title eliminator.

Barrera decided he didn’t want to take the fight for the money that was being offered. This left Beterbiev without a fight and a lot of time wasted in waiting for the negotiations and purse bid to go through. It’s great news the International Boxing Federation was able to get someone to agree to fight Beterbiev in Koelling, but it’s still take a while. Beterbiev last fought on December 23 in beating Isidro Ranoni Prieto by a 1st round knockout. Beterbiev has been out of the ring for 6 months.

Beterbiev has only had 2 fights in the last 2 years. He was out of action with a shoulder problem through the second half of 2015 and first half of 2016. Having to wait to fight Koelling is obviously a headache for Beterbiev, but it could be well worth the wait if he becomes the IBF mandatory to the winner of the Ward-Kovalev 2 fight.

This fight is coming at the right time for Beterbiev, as it gives him a great chance to give the boxing public a good comparison between him and Andre Ward, Sergey Kovalev and Adonis Stevenson. Beterbiev wants to fight one of those guys, but it’s not easy. Those fighters aren’t going to face someone dangerous like Beterbiev unless they absolutely have to. Even if they have to, it’s quite possible that they still won’t face him.

Kovalev would take the fight with Beterbiev if he’s able to recapture the IBF, WBA, WBO light heavyweight titles in his June 17th fight against Andre Ward. I don’t have a lot of faith that Ward will take the fight with Beterbiev. I think he’ll vacate his IBF title if Beterbiev becomes his mandatory challenger by beating Koelling.

Beterbiev, 32, will have a big power advantage over the younger 27-year-old Koelling. The tough fighters are going to be miles apart when they meet up on July 29.

The Beterbiev-Kovalev fight comes down to these key areas:

– Experience: Beterbiev has less pro experience than Koelling, but he had the more accomplished amateur career. Beterbiev fought for Russian in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics. Beterbiev was arguably robbed in his loss to Oleksandr Usyk in the quarterfinal of the 2012 Olympics in losing by a 17-13 score. Beterbiev was thinking of competing in the 2016 Olympics, but he chose not to. Koelling fought in the 2012 Olympics for Germany.

– Power: Beterbiev is the much better puncher of the two. With 1 punch power, Beterbiev has the ability to score a knockout at any time. Koelling is more of a high volume puncher, who boxes his way to decision wins. Koelling rarely knocks out his opponents.

– Speed: Koelling has a slight edge in the speed department. It’s not enough of an edge for Koelling to dominate. Koelling will still need to have a good chin for him to beat Beterbiev.

– Chin: It’s hard to say which of the two fighters has the better chin, because neither has been hurt or stopped at the pro level. This area is still uncertain.

– Defense: Beterbiev seems to be pretty solid defensively. However, he does get hit when he’s coming forward. Beterbiev was knocked down by Jeff Page in their fight in 2014. Beterbiev also took some shots in his fight with Isidro Ranoni Prieto last December. However, Beterbiev immediately knocked Prieto out in the 1st round, so he was never in danger in that fight.

– Ring IQ: Beterbiev seems to be the better fighter in terms of ring IQ compared to Koelling.

Koelling has his work cut out for him in fighting Beterbiev. This is not the right type of opponent for Koelling to do well against. Someone like Juergen Braemer would have been ideal for Koelling back when he was a world champion at 175. Nathan Cleverly would also have been a great opponent as well for Koelling.

Beterbiev is a very good puncher on the inside. He’s able to come up with a lot of power on his shots without needing more than a foot or two. In Beterbiev’s last fight against Prieto, the Argentinian fighter tried to get in close to Beterbiev to smother him. Beterbiev then responded by hitting him with a big left to the head that sent Prieto flying back to the ropes where the fight was halted. The bout was that fast. Beterbiev also knocked out Tavoris Cloud in the 2nd round after dropping him twice from huge shots on the inside.

Beterbiev can’t be on the inside. That’s why you can argue that Beterbiev would be a much more difficult opponent for Andre Ward than Kovalev, because he’s so dangerous and so powerful on the inside. Ward’s trainer Virgil Hunter would need to come up with a good alternative plan that doesn’t include fighting on the inside if he wanted to have any chance at all of beating Beterbiev. I don’t think he could beat him. Beterbiev is so good. I think Ward would swerve the Beterbiev fight. I also doubt that Ward would ever fight Adonis Stevenson. There are guys that Ward wants to fight, like Kovalev, and then there are fighters that he might not ever fight. I would include Beterbiev and Stevenson in that category.

Koelling has already lost to Mirco Ricci by a 12 round unanimous decision in 2015. The scores were 116-112, 116-112 and 117-112. Ricci (17-3, 5 KOs) is hardly a world beater. He seems like a decent fighter. Ricci gave Dominic Boesel problems in losing by a 10 round majority decision in their fight in 2013. It’s not good for Koelling that he couldn’t beat a fighter at Ricci’s level.

If Koelling can’t beat a guy like Ricci, then he’s going to have a lot of problems against Beterbiev on July 29. It would be in Koelling’s best interest to focus on his boxing the entire time he’s in the ring with Beterbiev. It would be disastrous for Koelling if he lets Beterbiev get in close enough range for him to land one of his big power shots, because he’ll get finished off quickly if he lets him get too close.

Prediction

With the way that Beterbiev is fighting right now, it’s hard to imagine that Koelling will go more than 2 or 3 rounds against him in this fight. I don’t think Koelling will be able to stand up to Beterbiev’s punching power. Koelling has skills and intelligence. He needs to use those assets if he wants to pull off the upset against Beterbiev.