Breakdown: Callum Smith vs. Nieky Holzken fight preview and prediction

Bloodyelbow.com

This weekend, we wrap up the semifinal round of the WBSS Super Middleweight (168 lbs.) bracket. George Groves is in the finals, and here, we find out his opponent as Callum Smith (23-0; 17 KOs) faces Nieky Holzken (13-0; 10 KOs). Holzken is stepping in as a late replacement for the ill Jurgen Braehmer. Smith is ranked #3 in the division by Ring Magazine while Holzken is understandably unranked. The fight takes place this Saturday, February 24 with a fight time of 2:00 p.m. ET. The fight is in Germany and there will be a live stream with live coverage here at Bloody Elbow.

How do these two stack up?

What have these two done recently?

Smith: W – Erik Skoglund (UD) | W – Luke Blackledge (KO) | W – Norbert Nemesapati (RTD)
Holzken: W – Viktor Polyakov (TKO) | W – Cagri Ermis (KO) | W – Kindele Matingu (Dec)

How did these two get here?

Callum Smith is the youngest of the UK Smith boxing family, and is undefeated in his 5 year pro career. He’s won some lower-tier titles, though not yet a major world belt. Smith has so far had decent competition, but lacks a single major win on his resume. His quarter-final victory came over Erik Skoglund. That was a telling fight, as Smith dominated early, let Skoglund back in the fight, and then had to rally to turn him back. So on the one hand, he showed he could overcome adversity, but on the other hand, he probably shouldn’t have had to show that against Skoglund at all.

Nieky Holzken is only 13 fights into his boxing career. He’s boxed off and on since 2013, but it’s primarily been a sideline to his main job as a kickboxer. There, he was arguably the sport’s #1 fighter two years ago, as he held the Glory Welterweight title and was on an incredible 17-1 run. He dropped that title in December 2016 and is on a surprising 0-3 run in kickboxing since. His last fight was in boxing just a few weeks ago on February 3 where he scored a 2nd round KO win. He’s obviously still developing as a boxer, taking a huge step here – this is his first ever 12 rounder.

What can fans expect?

Look, as a kickboxing fan, I’m incredibly excited to see Holzken here. And I do think he has shown some good skills in his boxing career so far, translating some of his kickboxing skills (like his gorgeous body hooks) nicely. And Smith has yet to really show a level of serious greatness. But this is not going to be an easy fight for Holzken. Smith is just the better, more experienced boxer, plain and simple. I expect Holzken to try to overwhelm Smith early, but Smith should have little trouble using his technical superiority to take the win. Holzken could make it fun though.
Prediction: Callum Smith, TKO late

Who should watch?

The WBSS tournaments have been really good so far, but the Super Middleweight one is in danger of falling apart here, with Braehmer’s injury and a possible George Groves injury. That said, this is Nieky Holzken getting his highest profile boxing fight to date. I’m 100% in.