Broner vs Granados: No Such Thing as a Tune-Up

BoxingNews24.com

By Joseph Hirsch: It was inevitable that Adrien Broner would initially draw comparison to Floyd Mayweather. From his use of the “Philly Shell” defense style to his flamboyant trash-talking, the two had quite a bit in common.

But Floyd was a much more defensive-minded fighter than Broner, a consummate counter-puncher who didn’t engage in a war unless he absolutely had to. Broner has great defense, but he is also at heart a more aggressive fighter than Floyd Mayweather. Broner also has a couple of official losses on his record, unlike Mayweather.

Floyd is retired now, which means Broner is no longer laboring in Money Mayweather’s shadow. The main question remaining then is where does Broner go from here?

Adrien Broner’s next opponent is Adrian Granados, who pulled off a big upset against Amir “Young Master” Imam in 2015. Imam was a rising undefeated star, with a style fluid enough for a martial artist; like Keith Thurman, there was a touch of Bruce Lee in Imam.

Adrian Granados was supposed to be a tune-up/stay busy affair for Imam, until the big fight with Viktor Postol. Most ringside observers expected the tough-but-limited Granados to give Imam trouble, but to succumb to the mastery of the fighter wise beyond his years. It didn’t happen that way. Granados pressed the action, fought well on the inside, stayed busy and neutralized Imam’s very good jab. He eventually overwhelmed Imam and stopped the Young Master’s momentum.

Granados is hoping to pull another upset against Adrien Broner on February 18th at the Cintas Center, in Cincinnati Ohio. Adrien Broner wants to prove he still has it, that in addition to his newfound maturity (on display in a recent Showtime appearance), Broner wants to show that he still deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the best boxers campaigning at super-lightweight. What happens in his fight with Granados will be a good bellwether for what comes next in Broner’s career.

Nothing is certain in boxing, but Broner is likely to plow through Granados, to beat El Tigre by stoppage. Granados’s win over Imam was no fluke, but the result of a smart game plan that was well-executed. But the blueprint he used to beat Amir Imam is a recipe for a KO loss against Adrian Broner, because Broner in many ways is Amir Imam’s opposite.

Amir Imam was and remains a deft outside fighter who works off the jab, whereas Adrien Broner is a power puncher. He is enough of a ring scientist to deflect blows, but he loves to mix it up on the inside. Broner doesn’t have the luxury to work outside, due to his short reach. If Granados tries to bang the body and stay in the pocket against Broner, Broner will oblige, mix his attack upstairs and down, and he will put Granados on the canvas (where he has already been several times).

It’s true that Marcos Maidana used a strategy against Broner like the one Granados used to take apart Amir Imam, but it is also true that Granados lacks the experience, power, and pedigree of Marcos Maidana. Add to that the fact that Broner has had a little bit more than three years to correct the mistakes that got him in trouble with Maidana, as well as the fact that he knows he needs this win, and it becomes even easier to understand why Granados can’t win by mixing it up inside, trying to pressure or bully his way to another massive upset.

Granados has already said he doesn’t expect a decision to go his way in Broner’s backyard, and that he will seek the knockout. This strategy is a mistake, a bit of a kamikaze run on El Tigre’s part, if for no other reason than that sticking and moving is probably his best bet against Broner. Adrien Broner has great success against fighters who pull straight back after exchanges, or who come straight in. He does not fight well on his bicycle, and does not punch well when out of position. He has power and he is accurate with combinations, but he likes for his feet to be set before he unloads. If Granados keeps turning him, and avoids the ropes and the corners, he may frustrate Broner (and maybe even the crowd), but it’s best chance to survive and win a decision. If he stays still, he’s dead.

Volume should also be a key part of Granados’s arsenal. Recall the advice of legendary trainer and former boxer George Benton as quoted by Raúl Márquez: “Hit him anywhere, on the hip, on the arm, on the shoulder, just hit him!” Broner’s shell defense makes his chin a hard target to catch. He covers up well to the body as well. But regardless of that Granados can’t afford to play what Pauli Malignaggi once called a game of “My Turn, Your Turn.” If he waits, he’s dead. Keeping Broner fighting at a pace he doesn’t want to fight at is as important as moving and giving angles.

Neither man was especially active in 2016, though Granados’s lone wine over Ariel Vasquez does not inspire much confidence. Three of Granados’s four previous losses came at the hands of men whose combined record was a sterling 49 wins and zero losses. His last opponent had a record of 12 wins and 15 losses when the two men traded leather, and the fight went the distance.

If Broner gets Granados out of there by KO (and I think he will), or he gets the nod from the judges (also possible), that win brings with it the question of whom Broner should choose as his next opponent. There’s Ricky Burns, the best Scottish fighter since Ken Buchanan was scrapping with Roberto Duran in a pair of tartan plaid trunks. This potential fight has been percolating since 2013, with Broner accusing Burns of ducking. For that fight to happen, Burns must get through a match with Julius Indongo, and then there’s still talk that Freddy Roach has been eyeing Burns as a potential candidate for Senator Pacquiao’s next fight. Broner may be “about billions,” but he can’t offer the kind of money Pacman can.

Another potential matchup for Broner would be against Viktor Postol. This fight would help Broner leapfrog in the rankings, and put him within spitting distance of Terrance “Bud” Crawford, but that might not be where he wants to be. Crawford is as powerful as Broner, and while he is not technically as cute stylistically, he has gotten the job done against a crop of world-class fighters without taking a step backwards. There is even talk that if Crawford-Pacquiao doesn’t happen, Crawford may step up to 147 and challenge Errol Spence, a move Broner has cautioned Crawford against.

That means that unless Broner wants to challenge someone like shopworn and war-weary Ruslan Provodnikov, which would prove nothing, he could fight Mikey Garcia. It might not be the big money fight, or the one that would put him at the top of the food chain, but it would be a true test against an undefeated power puncher who took a couple of years off and came back fighting like he’d only been away at training camp for eight weeks.

Broner-Garcia is the most exciting of the options just placed on the table, and it should be the fight that fans press for if Mikey Garcia and Adrien Broner both beat their next opponents. But it bears repeating: Neither Broner nor his fans (among which I number myself) should look past the Granados fight. It’s an old truism in boxing that you “never look past your next opponent,” but that goes double when he has sparred with you and he helped get Juan Manuel Marquez ready for his winning fight with Pacquiao. There’s no such thing as a tune-up.

Just ask Amir Imam.