Canelo Alvarez a HUGE favorite to beat Rocky Fielding

Boxingnews24.com

By Dan Ambrose: The odds-makers have installed Saul Canelo Alvarez (50-1-2, 34 KOs) as a HUGE favorite by a -1600 line to defeat WBA World super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs), who is at +800, for their fight this Saturday night, according to Bavada’s odds. The way they see it, the 6’1″ Fielding doesn’t stand a chance against the much smaller 5’8″ Canelo, even though the Mexican star has arguably lost his last two fights to Gennady Golovkin.

It helps being popular though, as we’ve see with Canelo dodging repeated defeats with controversial scoring in his fights against GGG, Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout. Those are fights that easily could have resulted with Canelo losing, but instead, he won three out of the four of them. The only fight Canelo didn’t win of those four was his first one against GGG last year, which was scored a 12 round draw. Most boxing fan had Golovkin winning that fight by a 116-112 score.

Fielding is a gigantic fighter when standing next to the 5’8″ Canelo, and he has always done incredibly well against shorter fighters than himself. The only fighter that has beaten Fielding during his eight-year pro career is the 6’3″ Callum Smith in 2015. Fielding was completely destroyed by the taller Smith in a 1st round blowout. That was supposed to have been a competitive match-up, but things fell apart for Fielding after he walked into a big left hook from Smith, who got everything he had in that shot. With Smith’s big levers, he was catching Fielding with massive punches that he had defense for.

“He [Canelo] is the favorite, I’m not stupid. but, I’m bigger, I’m going to push him,” Fielding said to ESPN.com about Canelo. “I still know I can beat him and that is why I took the fight. I have been next to him and I know I can put it on him.”

The only short fighter that have given Fielding problems in the past is the 5’9″ John Ryder. Fielding defeated Ryder by a close 12 round split decision a year ago in April 2017 to win the vacant British super middleweight title. Ryder’s southpaw stance made it tough for Fielding to keep from getting his with his left hands. Against Canelo, Fielding will need to watch out for his left hook that he likes to throw at close range. Apart from that, Canelo doesn’t have much of a fight hand or a jab. Fielding’s right hand and jab are more powerful, but his defense isn’t nearly as good as Canelo’s.

Canelo wants Fielding’s WBA secondary super middleweight title to add to his collection of division world titles. It would be Canelo’s third division world title if he wins. It’s a disappointment to some that Canelo didn’t want to test himself against the upper World Boxing Association super middleweight champion Callum Smith. He’s the one with the main title with the WBA organization, who call it the WBA ‘Super World’ super middleweight title.

It’s embarrassing that a sanctioning body would have more than one champion in the same weight class, but welcome to boxing. There’s no governing body that can control things like this. It’s crazy though. Imagine there being two Super Bowl champions every year. In boxing it’s even worse though, as there are four sanctioning bodies and countless world titles to be won. It takes away the value of being a world champion. In the old days, Canelo would have one champion to go after if he wanted to become a champion. That would likely mean that if Canelo wanted to win the super middleweight belt, he would need to beat the likes of Callum Smith.

The question is, would Canelo have moved up to super middleweight to go after a world title if Callum Smith was his only option? Probably not. Callum Smith is too big, too strong and too dangerous for a short fighter like the 5’8″ Canelo. Even Canelo fought the perfect fight, he would get clipped numerous times by Smith’s big left hooks, and it would likely be a disaster for him like it was for George Groves.

Alvarez, 28, defeated IBF/WBA/WBO middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin by a 12 round majority decision on September 15 of this year at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The boxing world is pretty well split over who they felt won that fight. Canelo testing positive twice for the banned performance enhancing substance clenbuterol last February, and his subsequent six-month suspension took away a lot of the credit that he would have received from fans for his controversial 12 round decision win over GGG in the rematch. The positive tests for clenbuterol, and the way that Canelo’s physique looked different than it had before, made fans suspicious about whether he was clean in the lead up to his two fights against Golovkin. It’s too bad. Canelo could have received a lot of credit from the boxing world for his win over GGG last September if not for his positive test for clenbuterol earlier in the year. For the record, Canelo blames the positive tests on him having eaten tainted beef.

Fielding hasn’t shown the kind of talent that the 5’10 1/2″ Golovkin has going for him. However, Fielding is 2 1/2″ inches taller with a longer reach, and he’s five years younger. Canelo is fighting a guy that isn’t talented or as experienced as Triple G in Fielding, but he’s got the natural size, reach, youth and power on his side. Styles make fights in boxing. As such, it might not matter that Fielding doesn’t possess the same talent that Golovkin had on his side in his two fights with Canelo Alvarez. Fielding is a much bigger guy, who will likely rehydrate into the 180s after he weighs-in on Friday night.

Golovkin weighed in the low 170s for his two fights with Canelo. The boxing public doesn’t know how much Canelo weighs after he rehydrates, as his fight night weight hasn’t been revealed in a long time. Even if Canelo does rehydrate to the 180s lke some fans think, Fielding’s height and long arms will make him a better puncher than Canelo at 168 due to the leverage he gets on his shots. Canelo is only 5’8″, and you can only get so much leverage with a tiny frame like that. Fielding might not be as good as GGG, but his frame, power and youth could make him a nightmare for Canelo on Saturday night.

Two years ago, Fielding survived a scare in defeating Christopher Rebrasse by a 12 round split decision to win the vacant World Boxing Council International Super Middleweight title on April 2, 2016. The 6’1″ Rebrasse, who isn’t know to be a big puncher, knocked Fielding down in the 2nd round. Fielding got up off the deck and came back to win a narrow 12 round split decision. Despite winning, Fielding was seen as lucky, and not someone that deserved the win. Other than Fielding’s close win over John Ryder last year, he’s looked a lot better in destroying most of his opposition he’s faced, including WBA ‘regular’ super middleweight champion Tyron Zeuge. Fielding stopped Zeuge in the 5th round last July to capture the WBA ‘regular’ 168 lb title in Germany.

If Fielding can pull off the upset on Saturday over Canelo, it would be a huge win for him. In the best possible world, a victory for Fielding would write his ticket for a big money rematch against Canelo, but that’s not likely to happen. Canelo’s promoters at Golden Boy Promotions will likely give him a long rest if he gets by Fielding, and the defeat will be explained away as the Mexican star having taken the match without enough proper rest after his close win over Golovkin. It won’t matter if Fielding never faces Canelo again after Saturday. Just as long as Fielding beats Canelo, it will increase his popularity at home in the UK, and it will open the door for him to fight other big names like GGG. There will be money to be made for Fielding, whether Canelo wants a second helping or not.