Canelo will struggle with Golovkin’s pressure

By Jeff Aranow: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennady “GGG” Golovkin have history together with the two of them having sparred in the past in 2011 when Canelo was 20 and still learning. There were a number of flaws that Canelo showed during the sparing session that was noted by journalists. One of the flaws that were observed in Canelo’s game was his tendency not back off when he was hurt by Golovkin.

Instead of backing off when shaken up by GGG during the sparring session, Canelo reportedly went forward and started swinging. We’ve seen this same hot-heated tendency in Canelo’s game in the pro ranks. He doesn’t back off when he gets nailed by big shots. It obviously has helped Canelo that he’s been matched carefully by his promoters by fighting guys that he’s been better than in almost every case during his career.

Canelo will be challenging IBF/IBO/WBA/WBC middleweight champion Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) on September 16 on HBO PPV at a venue still to be determined.

The sparring session between Canelo and Golovkin was seen by Doug Fisher, and he noted that Canelo was already in trouble in the 2nd round of the sparring session that he saw. Canelo hurt in the final seconds of the 2nd round. One can only imagine if Golovkin had hurt Canelo earlier in the round. But the fact that Golovkin was able to hurt Canelo so quickly with one of his power shots doesn’t bode well for the red-headed Mexican star for their upcoming fight on September 16.

Here’s what Dough Fisher of RingTV.com said about his thoughts on the Golovkin vs. Canelo sparring session that he witnessed:

“If he’s hurt or feels that he’s being overwhelmed during a fight, I have a feeling he might just go for broke instead of trying to survive,” said Fisher about his thoughts on Canelo after watching him spar GGG. “Alvarez followed Golovkin during the final minute [of round 2] and walked into a left hook that appeared to rock him with 10 seconds remaining. Alvarez didn’t return to his corner after the bell. but instead tried to shake out and stretch his right leg, which immediately stiffened on impact of Golovkin’s left hook,” said Fisher.

This is not good that Canelo doesn’t fight smart when he’s nailed. If Canelo fights with anger against Golovkin on September 16, this could be a very quick fight. Golovkin isn’t going to lose his head if he gets clipped, because he’s trained well and doesn’t fight as much with emotion.
Canelo must keep it together mentally against Golovkin if he doesn’t want to get blasted out. I don’t believe Canelo has improved since 2011. He’s bigger, slower, and he still fights in brief spurts like he did back then. Canelo’s power is the same and he still gets red in the face when he’s hit.

Canelo immediately goes on the attack to try and pay his opponents back when he gets nailed by a big shot. Aside from Canelo’s fight against Floyd Mayweather, it hasn’t hurt Canelo that he’s always gone after his opponents to pay them back when he’s been hit. The level of Canelo’s opponents has been poor enough to where he’s always been the A-side in terms of talent. Canelo hasn’t been matched against guys that had an even chance to beat him. Some say Miguel Cotto had an even chance against Canelo. I don’t think so. Canelo was considered the favorite in the Cotto fight as well.

Canelo’s only chance of beating Golovkin is if he’s able to use his boxing skills to hit and move the way that Kell Brook and Danny Jacobs both used in their fights with him. Brook didn’t do as good as job as Jacobs did, but he also wasn’t a natural middleweight and he wasn’t weighing in the 180s on the night of the fight. If Canelo can move around the ring for 12 rounds, he’ll stand a better chance of beating Golovkin.

I’m not saying Canelo will win, but I think he’ll have a better chance of getting the victory. The one problem that Canelo has is he doesn’t move very well. He’s kind of heavy on his feet and only good at moving in straight lines despite his promoter Oscar De La Hoya saying he’s a great mover. Golovkin is quite good at cutting off the ring on his opponents, especially when they’re short and heavy like Canelo.

David Lemieux couldn’t get away from Golovkin at all in their fight in 2015. The thing is, Canelo seems to be such a hot-head inside the ring, he might not even try to get away from Golovkin. Canelo’s pride might be his downfall if he chooses not to fight like Brook and Jacobs by moving to preserve himself. This fight could end really early like Golovkin’s mismatches with Marco Antonio Rubio and Dominic Wade. Those fighters didn’t use movement, and they were quickly knocked out.

The worst thing that Canelo can do against Golovkin is to try and make it a war against him. Canelo’s power at middleweight isn’t nearly good enough for him to knockout Golovkin. As we saw in Canelo’s fight against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, he doesn’t hit hard enough to knockout even punching bags. Canelo’s looks less than that of Jacobs, Curtis Stevens, David Lemieux, Golovkin and Jermall Charlo.

Canelo isn’t going to be able to count on knocking out the good fighters in the middleweight division. Unless Golden Boy Promotions goes back to matching Canelo against beatable opposition like they’ve mostly been doing since he turned pro, he could start losing unless they make major changes to his boxing style. That means Canelo will need to transition from being a slugger like he’d been to that of a boxer, and he’ll need to make that change starting on September 16 against Golovkin.

Some in the boxing world believe Golovkin to have lost enough from his game for Canelo to beat him at this point in his career. Golovkin hasn’t lost his power or his jab, and those are going to be a big problem for Canelo in this fight. Canelo is going to be getting hit harder than he’s ever been hit before by a guy that is about the same size as him. That’s not going to be good news for Canelo, because he’s been the bigger fighter in so many of his fights during his career.

Chavez Jr. was bigger than Canelo, but he was just a body inside the ring in that fight. That was a farce, and some think a rip off to the boxing public. Chavez Jr. has been an over the hill fighter for many years. Golovkin isn’t over the hill. He’s going to be attacking Golovkin from the very start on September 16, and I think this fight could end very early with Canelo getting hurt like he was in his sparring session with GGG and then taken out.