Diggin’ Deep on UFC 223: Khabib vs. Holloway – Fight Pass prelims preview

There is no doubt UFC 223 is top-to-bottom the most stacked card of 2018 thus far. The Fight Pass prelims offer the most explosive prospect casual fans have never heard of. Seriously, if the UFC brass gave Zabit Magomedsharipov half the push they give Sage Northcutt, they could potentially have a Russian superstar on their hands. The kid is a blast to watch. That isn’t all either. Mike Rodriguez is incredibly raw, but the flashes he has shown indicate he could be something special.

There are more familiar names too like Alex Caceres, Artem Lobov, and Bec Rawlings, all known for consistently putting together fun scraps for the viewing audience. There are plenty of times I can’t blame fans for skipping out on the Fight Pass prelims. This isn’t one of those times.

The Fight Pass prelims begin at 6:15 PM ET/3:15 PM PT on Saturday.

Alex Caceres (13-11, 1 NC) vs. Artem Lobov (14-14-1, 1 NC), Featherweight

Though a fighter’s record tends to mean very little in the grand scheme of things in the sport of MMA, it seemed highly appropriate to pair Caceres and Lobov together given their less-than-impressive showing in the win-loss column. However, their similar records doesn’t make them similar in styles. In fact, it’s hard to point to two fighters more different than Caceres and Lobov.

The biggest difference between the two is Caceres’ tendency to beat himself. The longtime roster mainstay possesses the talent to compete with the best in the division, but also tends to suffer from severe brain cramps, leading him to either get hurt or finished. On the flip side, Lobov suffers from a lack of physical talent, possessing extremely short arms and limited athleticism. Nonetheless, Conor McGregor’s teammate makes the most of what he has, showing excellent timing on his counters coupled with mounds of toughness. While few fear Lobov’s wrestling or grappling, his submission defense has been above par, surviving an extensive amount of time with Ryan Hall on the ground.

Caceres will certainly be willing to test the Lobov’s ground game as Caceres is about as crafty as they come. However, Caceres rarely gets to display his grappling skills as his wrestling is both underutilized and underwhelming. Nonetheless, when Bruce Leroy looks for the takedown, he tends to utilize good timing. Caceres has instead opted to stand and trade, staying on the outside with a wide variety of kicks with an emphasis on his reach. Though few look at Caceres as a power striker, he has surprised opponents from time to time with a powerful punch.

It all depends on what version of Caceres shows up. Will we get the disciplined striker looking to prove himself or will it be the cocky kid who believes he’s won the fight even before setting foot in the cage? For all his shortcomings, Lobov is an accurate puncher and should be able to work his way into Caceres’ range and piece him up. Don’t be surprised if Lobov is able to secure a finish either. Lobov via decision

Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-3) vs. Bec Rawlings (7-7), Women’s Flyweight

Both Evans-Smith and Rawlings are badly in need of a jump start for their career. Evans-Smith has lost her last two with Rawlings doing even worse by dropping her last three. Even though Rawlings lack of success is more notable with the longer losing streak, she also appears to be the fighter who is improving between the two ladies. Working with Alliance MMA out of San Diego, Rawlings has developed a more technical striking form while pushing a faster pace. The latter is good, the former hasn’t been so much as Rawlings tends to gas herself out in the process. If she can find a way to maintain her pace without tiring, she could become a dark horse in the newly formed division.

Evans-Smith has the tools to become a standout, but she has never been able to put all the pieces together. Though her confidence in her striking has progressed to the point she is willing to engage in a standup battle, she is still too reluctant to pull the trigger to maximize her potential as a kickboxer. Nonetheless, she still has her wrestling she can fall back on, honed by her years in college in the sport. Evans-Smith wasn’t exactly undersized at bantamweight either. If she can cut down to 125 without depleting herself, she could become a major bully in a division full of former strawweights… like Rawlings.

Though I believe Evans-Smith has the higher ceiling at flyweight than Rawlings, I have zero trust in her anymore. Evans-Smith’s tendency is to give away fights with inactivity or fighting an unintelligent contest while Rawlings has had fights wrested away from her either by more technical fighters or head kicks out of nowhere. I would pick Evans-Smith to grind away a decision on the smaller Rawlings, but her lack of activity leaves me doubting she can do that against a fireplug like Rawlings. Rawlings via decision

Devin Clark (8-2) vs. Mike Rodriguez (9-2), Light Heavyweight

Clark was making some headway when he moved back to 205, picking up a pair of wins in the process. Given Jan Blachowicz is fresh off a win over Jimi Manuwa, Clark’s loss to the Pole doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did when it occurred this past fall. Though he is undersized at light heavyweight, Clark makes up for that deficiency with his natural athleticism and surprising power. He hasn’t made much progress in terms of technique in his standup, though he has looked improved due to improved confidence in recent contests.

Clark’s lack of size is likely to come into play more than ever against Rodriguez. At 6’4” with an 83” reach, Rodriguez’s frame draws comparisons to another fighter with the nickname Bones:Jon Jones. Like the former light heavyweight kingpin, Rodriguez is confident enough in his abilities that he’ll throw out a high-risk maneuver, though he isn’t quite as creative as Jones. Training with Joe Lauzon, you know Rodriguez has some slick submissions as well. The only thing holding him back is he has yet to pick up the basics to help him win decisions. Given toughness is often what separates a journeyman from being elite, he’ll need to figure that out.

Though Rodriguez looks like he could be a special talent, the UFC isn’t giving him an easy contest in his official debut after an impressive performance in the Contender’s Series. However, Clark still hasn’t figured out many of the little nuances either. Rodriguez has shown consistent progress, albeit against lesser competition than Clark. Regardless, Rodriguez is more explosive with better killer instinct. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t find a finish. Rodriguez via submission of RD2

Zabit Magomedsharipov (14-1) vs. Kyle Bochniak (8-2), Featherweight

Two fights into his UFC career and Magomedsharipov already has plenty of analysts declaring him as the next big thing in the featherweight division. The creativity he has shown has been unmatched in recent years, even utilizing the cage to his advantage. Granted, Magomedsharipov hasn’t faced the best competition – both Mike Santiago and Sheymon Moraes were making their UFC debuts – but what he has done has been unique enough that everyone who has seen him agrees he’s special.

Bochniak is coming off his best performance of his career against Brandon Davis. He refused to meet the brawler in the pocket, instead picking his spots to attack before jumping just out of range. Given the range of Magomedsharipov, that strategy won’t be as easy to pull off against the Russian. What has received less attention from that contest was his attempts to wrestle Davis to the ground. Sure, his success was limited in getting Davis to the ground, but at least he remained active. Given his long periods of inactivity in his previous UFC contests, that’s an acceptable alternative.

Though Bochniak looked much improved against Davis, he still has a lot to prove. Otherwise, the UFC wouldn’t be feeding him to Magomedsharipov. Never say never in MMA, but I feel extremely comfortable picking Magomedsharipov to style on the Amercian with relative ease. Bochniak knew what Davis was going to do. Magomedsharipov’s creativity makes it difficult for anyone know what he’s going to do. I don’t see Bochniak solving that puzzle.Magomedsharipov via submission of RD2