Diggin’ Deep on UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 – Main card preview

I’ve been accused of being a UFC hater for how often I’ve criticized them in the past. Fair enough, as I do believe they’ve screwed up more than they’ve gotten right in the recent past given their resources. However, I’ll admit they tried to make UFC 227 worthwhile, but were unable to due to circumstances beyond their control. For instance, a contest between Alexander Gustafsson and Volkan Oezdemir would have been awesome. Derek Brunson and Antonio Carlos Junior wouldn’t have been at that level, but it wouldn’t have been bad either. There were even talks of Zabit Magomedsharipov and Yair Rodriguez throwing down too. None of those is happening on this card. In fact, outside of the two title fights, the only other fight worthy of being on a PPV main card is a featherweight clash between Cub Swanson and Renato Moicano. At least we have that….

The main card begins at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT on Saturday.

Cub Swanson (25-9) vs. Renato Moicano (12-1-1), Featherweight

Wait… haven’t we been here before with Swanson? Just a few years back, Swanson cruised into title talk with a long winning streak before having it snapped with back-to-back losses. Here we are once again….

The last time this situation rolled around, there were talks Swanson was washed up last time as he looked significantly slower against Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. That hasn’t been the case this time around, but he is three years older than he was the last time he reached this junction, giving cause for concern that his days as a contender are over. Swanson batted away those talks by becoming a smarter fighter, picking and choosing when to engage in a brawl. He’s still active in between his flurries of violence; he’s simply more measured, even looking for takedowns with more frequency than he used to.

Moicano has made a hell of a name for himself, picking up wins over Jeremy Stephens – the same one who just went tooth-and-nail with Jose Aldo – and Calvin Kattar while putting a scare into Brian Ortega. Moicano throws a lot of volume, but it’s a lot of distance strikes such as jabs and low kicks that fill up most of that quotient. That hardly means he’s a defensive expert, though it does show a good use of distance. However, it’s in the scrambling and grappling that Moicano built his reputation on the regional scene.

This is a hard contest to predict. Even if Swanson’s days as a contender aren’t over, he’s not guaranteed to emerge victorious. Moicano is that damn good. I’ve wavered back-and-forth on this one. Sometimes I think Moicano’s submission game will catch Swanson. Other times I think Swanson will piece up the Brazilian before finishing him off with a ruthless combination. I really have no clue how this one ends. In the end, I decided to go with the youngster because… well, because. Moicano via submission of RD3

Polyana Viana (10-1) vs. JJ Aldrich (6-2), Women’s Strawweight

Aldrich is riding a two-fight win streak, a bit of a surprise to many who expected her to washout on the big stage quickly. No one questioned whether she possessed tenacity, though it’s safe to say they underestimated just how tenacious the Colorado native is. Aldrich continues to walk forward throwing kick-punch combinations, hoping to wear down the opposition with her pressure. Her lack of power does make it difficult for her to prevent her opponents from stepping forward to return fire, but Aldrich isn’t going to back down either.

Viana’s still incredibly raw on the feet, winging heavy hooks without moving her feet with her body. Then again, it’s been a while since we’ve seen her stand and trade for quite a while as there was a long break between her last regional contest and her UFC debut this past winter. What we do know is she has a slick grappling game with a knack for finding her opponent’s back. Her willingness to stay on her back in the guard is worrisome, though there are serious doubts Aldrich will be the one to expose that as a liability.

This is a very simple fight to break down. If Viana can find a way to trip Aldrich to the ground, she’s likely to find a submission. If she can’t, Aldrich will outpoint her on the feet. Aldrich’s ground game is highly questionable, meaning all it could take is a single takedown from the Brazilian for the fight to come to an end. That doesn’t make for good odds for Aldrich. Viana via submission of RD2

Thiago Santos (17-6) vs. Kevin Holland (13-3), Middleweight

Put together just weeks before the event due to other fights falling off the card, Santos and Holland is a curious contest. Santos has established himself as one of the most lethal strikers in the division, able to turn the lights out on anyone with a single round kick upside the head thrown at lightning speed. He’s been unable to break into the upper echelon, though it’s hard to believe any contest he’s in with an opponent outside the top ten wouldn’t be a pick ‘em contest if Santos wasn’t the favorite. However, he’s also shown he can caught off guard as he proved in his shocking loss to Eric Spicely a few years ago.

Enter Holland. Holland entered the second season of the Contender Series as a favorite to pick up a contract given his 6’3” frame and 81” reach. However, he put forth an underwhelming performance against an undersized welterweight in Will Santiago and didn’t pick up a contract. Holland hasn’t figured out how to fully utilize his length and reach to his advantage, though there has been progress in that department. Regardless, his primary form of offense comes from his arsenal of kicks with the occasional spinning attack.

If Holland’s wrestling was more than just a cursory note in his arsenal, I’d like his chances of pulling off the upset as Santos’ glaring weakness is his grappling. However, Holland’s wrestling isn’t anything Santos hasn’t already proven he can handle, having thwarted more skilled wrestlers in the recent past. Even though Holland has a 5-inch reach advantage, it seems unlikely he’ll be able to win the striking battle against Santos. Of Santos’ 14 UFC contests, only two have gone the distance. It seems unlikely this one does. Santos via KO of RD1