Diggin’ Deep on UFC on FOX 29: Poirier vs. Gaethje – FOX prelims preview

Though there isn’t a standout contest on the televised prelims of UFC on FOX 29, the quality of the contests overall appears to be solid. Two of the contests are between ranked contestants while a third is a classic gatekeeper looking to turn away an upstart prospect. The fourth…well, if nothing else, it should be an exciting contest between standup fighters.

The televised prelims on FOX begin at 6:00 PM ET/3:00 PM PT on Saturday.

Tim Boetsch (21-11) vs. Antonio Carlos Junior (9-2, 1 NC), Middleweight

Hard to believe it was over 10 years ago when Boetsch flipped David Heath on his head and introduced us to redneck judo. A few improbable comebacks and brutal KO’s on his resume and it’s safe to say that he’s carved out a memorable career within the confines of the Octagon. Experiencing a late-career resurgence with three wins in his last four appearances – all of them KO/TKO finishes – it’s plausible he could end up adding to his highlight reel.

Carlos Junior would rather add to his own highlight reel that is smaller, but that isn’t because he’s the worse fighter. It’s because of his youth and shorter career length. Carlos Junior seems to have figured things out after a rough opening to his UFC career, putting together four wins in a row. However, he has also been facing competition far below what Boetsch is used to fighting. Nonetheless, Carlos Junior has earned this opportunity with his world-class BJJ skills. His striking is still holding him back from being elite, but he’s improved his wrestling enough to the point his striking is becoming less of an issue all the time.

Boetsch provides an interesting challenge for Carlos Junior as Boetsch is a big middleweight who rarely gets taken down. Taking him down also requires a major risk of clinching up with the American, the area in which Boetsch shines the most. Few can pack as much power in short distances as Boetsch, brutalizing opponents with uppercuts. He isn’t quite as effective at a distance, but he’s savvy enough to make up for his lack of speed due to his extensive experience.

Boetsch has been rejuvenated in the last few years, beating former welterweight championJohny Hendricks most recently. Is that enough to turn away an upstart Carlos Junior? If Carlos Junior can secure just one takedown, that could be enough as Boetsch has struggled with his submission defense against skilled grapplers. Just one takedown… Carlos Junior via submission, RD2

Muslim Salikhov (13-2) vs. Ricky Rainey (13-4), Welterweight

Following an injury to Abdul Razak Alhassan, Rainey is a curious choice to replace the transplant from Ghana. It isn’t that Rainey is without talent. On the contrary, he’s a hell of an athlete for his age. However, that’s the issue; Rainey is 34. Nonetheless, Rainey stands a good chance of pulling off the upset as he will have the edge in athleticism in addition to owning some underrated power in his hands. The issue for the Bellator veteran has always been his lack of wrestling and shortcomings in the grappling department. He can survive on the ground, but that’s about it.

A wushu practitioner, Salikhov struggled mightily to implement his unorthodox style successfully in his UFC debut. Requiring a lot of space to throw and land his bevy of spinning attacks, Alex Garcia gave him little room to operate, resulting in very little output from the Russian. If given enough room, Salikhov has been able to land his spinning attacks with a level of consistency that is unheard of. There is much progress to be made in his wrestling and grappling, but he surprised some with his ability to escape from the bottom, indicating his time at ATT has been paying off.

Though neither Salikhov or Rainey offer any name value, they should put on a fun striking contest. Salikhov’s unorthodox style can be difficult to prepare for and Rainey hasn’t had much time to do that. The King of Kung Fu should find a way to make Rainey’s UFC debut a disappointment for the newcomer. Salikhov via KO, RD2

Wilson Reis (22-8) vs. John Moraga (18-6), Flyweight

Two of the more maligned victims of Demetrious Johnson’s dominant streak of title defenses, it’s a bit of a surprise Reis and Moraga haven’t met before this point. It’s curious they meet now as Moraga has experienced what appears to be a late career resurgence while Reis looks like he’s nearing the end of the line.

Given Reis’ status as a longtime veteran, it may come as a surprise to many that Moraga is actually older than the Brazilian by about a year. Many believed Moraga was on his way out when he suffered consecutive losses to the likes of Joseph Benavidez, Matheus Nicolau, andSergio Pettis. In other words, he was losing to quality competition. He has put together a pair of impressive wins since, looking revitalized in the process. Perhaps most important was his display of power in his one-punch KO of Magomed Bibulatov. Moraga has developed a more consistent offensive approach, needing to rely less on his opportunistic nature. It isn’t just his standup either; he’s found greater success in his takedowns too, though that may be more attributed to facing lower competition.

Reis has been a shell of himself in his recent contests. Then again, his last two appearances have come against Johnson and Henry Cejudo, the top two flyweights in the world. Thus, his losing streak could be compared to that of Moraga’s streak he snapped last year. However, one key difference has been the despondent look in the face of Reis in the midst of those one-sided beatings. A fighter’s confidence can only be damaged so much before it begins to affect their performance permanently. Is Reis to that point?

If not, he’s made small strides in his striking to become a respectable kickboxer. However, it’s his wrestling and grappling that everyone knows him for. He may very well be the best pure BJJ practitioner in the division. Casual fans may not be aware of that as he focuses on maintaining position rather than sniffing for subs, but his opponents are well aware of the danger he poses. He has also developed into an underrated wrestler over his career, able to get the majority of his opponents to the mat when he wishes.

I know I say it a lot, but this is a difficult contest to predict. The obvious X-factor is where Reis is at mentally. If it affects him in the slightest, I struggle to see him overcoming Moraga’s newfound offensive consistency. Even if Reis is on point, I can still see Moraga finding an opening for a finish. It’s hardly an ironclad pick, but I’m going with the American in this one. Moraga via decision

Krzysztof Jotko (19-3) vs. Brad Tavares (16-4), Middleweight

Heading into 2017, there was a belief among many in the MMA media that Jotko was a dark horse contender in the middleweight division. He displayed surprising power in dispatching ofTamdan McCrory before completely dominating respectable middleweight veteran Thales Leites. Despite two losses in a row, there are still signs Jotko could break through, even if it’s a bit later than expected. The first of those losses came to David Branch in a contest that easily could have gone in favor of Jotko. The second loss was a fight he was in absolute control of until Uriah Hall did what Uriah Hall does and exploded with a vicious right hand to drop the Polish fighter.

The biggest reason for optimism is Jotko’s continued improvement. A blanketing grinder upon his UFC entry, he transformed himself into a pressuring kickboxer. There isn’t anything flashy about his combinations with a jab and crosses being his staples, but it is effective. Though he doesn’t resort to the clinch or wrestling nearly as often as he used to, he showed he can still take that approach when he needs to, spending significant time grinding away on Hall before the finishing sequence. Jotko’s durability has long been lauded too, though there is room to question it given the loss to Hall.

Tavares has been on the UFC roster for eight years and fifteen fights now. He’s no longer the prospect that the UFC handled with care for so long. It’s now or never for him to bloom into a contender. Even if it doesn’t happen, Tavares is hardly a bust. He’s become a veteran gatekeeper who can separate the contenders from the pretenders…mostly. His most recent losses came to Yoel Romero, the aforementioned Tim Boetsch, and Robert Whittaker. Romero and Whittaker are the top middleweights in the world today while Boetsch has flashed the power to stop a water buffalo, as we’ve already discussed. Nothing to be ashamed of in those losses.

What has held Tavares back is his lack of finishing ability. He can pour the volume on in bunches and is a competent positional grappler, but possesses only a single finish among his eleven UFC victories. What gets the Hawaiian through is his superior conditioning and technically sound short combinations supplemented by a high volume of low kicks. Though Tavares hasn’t applied his wrestling game as much as he did in the past – against a lower level of competition – his takedown defense remains solid.

A difficult contest to pick, a sound argument could be made in favor of either fighter. Neither are particularly noted for their defense and neither has is noted for their power. I’m going with Jotko as he appears to be a bit stronger while showing a bit more ability to dictate where the fight goes. Did I mention he shows a bit more power too? Worth throwing out there is the possibility of this contest being a stinker…just saying. Jotko via decision