Diggin’ Deep on UFC 202: Diaz vs McGregor 2 main card preview

By Dayne Fox @dafoxdude

Let’s be honest. The opening two fights of the main card are more than a little bit underwhelming. Thanks to injuries, we’re looking at two unheralded newcomers making their debut on the paid portion of the card. I suppose I can’t blame the UFC as nobody was going to be paying to watch Sean Strickland or Sultan Aliev going against Tim Means and Hyun Gyu Lim respectively, but it still feels a bit of a shorting.

Fortunately the injury bug avoided both Rick Story and Donald Cerrone as that is one of the most anticipated contests on the card. The winner is likely to be dubbed an official contender at welterweight even if they would still be a fight or two away from getting an actual title shot. I’m actually looking forward to this -€” and other fights -€” more than the main event of Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz. Can we get this feud in the rear-view mirror already and allow the featherweight division to progress!?

The main card starts at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT.

Rick Story (19-8) vs. Donald Cerrone (30-7, 1 NC), Welterweight

Wait, are we supposed to take Cerrone serious as a welterweight? I thought he was taking fights there just to make some money. I guess he was serious….

Story was the hottest up-and-coming name in the division five years ago before his hype train was derailed by Charlie Brenneman. He alternated wins and losses for a few years after that, but seems to have righted his career the last few years with back-to-back wins over Gunnar Nelson and Tarec Saffiedine. Considering he has been in the UFC since 2009, it’s easy to forget that he is still only 31-years old. He very well could be in his prime.

Cerrone is still as brash as ever and has taken a much more aggressive approach now that he is no longer cutting the extra fifteen pounds that it takes to make the lightweight limit. The thought amongst some was now that Eddie Alvarez is champion at 155 -€” a man Cerrone has previously beaten -€” Cerrone might jump back down in hopes of a title shot. Nope. The Cowboy seems content where he is at. Why not after walking through Alex Oliveira and Patrick Cote?

Regardless of the improvements that he has been making, Cerrone is and always will be a kickboxer first and foremost. Favoring an attack centered around his legs, his switch kicks are among the best in the game and he has serious KO power in his round kicks. Remember his finishes of Adriano Martins and Jim Miller? The step-in knee that he added in recent years has also been a much talked about addition to his repertoire. He’s added a few more wrinkles recently. Cerrone has shown a greater inclination to throw punches in the pocket and utilize double-leg takedowns to greater effect. It’s getting harder to find weaknesses in Cerrone’s armor.

One thing that has traditionally been one of Cerrone’s weaknesses is when he is pressured, something Story does very well. A former collegiate wrestler, Story has evolved his game to use his wrestling skills to not just take his opponent down, but to pin them against the cage and beat on his opposition. He’s developed a reputation as one of the best at working over the body using terrific head positioning and underhooks to get his preferred angle to beat on the midsection. He’s an underrated boxer in the pocket as well even if it doesn’t look pretty.

Cerrone could end up landing a few takedowns if he times them correctly, but it’s more likely that we’ll see Cerrone operating off of his back than in top position as Story is significantly stronger and a better technical wrestler. Much like his clinch game, Story is all about suffocating his opponent on the ground. Cerrone has a very active guard that isn’t to be trifled with, so don’t be surprised to see Story let him up if Cerrone threatens with a triangle choke.

Cerrone is the favorite in this one and understandably so. He’s got more name value and more quality wins than Story, even if the majority of them came at lightweight. I’m picking the upset though. Story is one of the most durable fighters in the game. Few are better able to walk through a power shot the way he does to continue pressuring. Cerrone has also had a weakness to body shots Rafael dos Anjos and Anthony Pettis dropping him with those. It may not be a single body shot, but as often as Story works over the mid-section expect to see Cerrone wilt under the pressure of the bigger and stronger Story. Story via TKO of RD3

Hyun Gyu Lim (13-5-1) vs. Mike Perry (7-0), Welterweight

It’s hard to find a lower profile contest on a PPV main card as Lim hasn’t been seen in well over a year while never having much fanfare in the first place while Perry is a late replacement for Sultan Aliev.

Lim may be the biggest welterweight I’ve ever seen… at least those who make weight regularly -€” looking at you Anthony Johnson. Seriously though, he is absolutely huge for welterweight. His sporadic appearances have taken off a lot of the sheen on his prospect star as he is now a 31-year old with five UFC contests under his belt after debuting in early 2013. Hard to see him rising above the mid-tier at this juncture.

Perry has a lot more unknown about him as he is still an incredibly raw prospect. If he can be developed, he could be something special, though that is a big if. Fighting primarily in Florida regional promotions, his biggest win to date is Jon Manley, he of a single UFC contest before being cut. I fear the UFC is calling him up too early despite what his record indicates.

One look at Perry will tell you he’s a specimen. Sporting a muscular frame with quick-twitch explosion, he has finished every single one of his professional bouts with none of them going past the second round. While his punches clearly have a lot of power behind them, he also tends to throw single strikes while seeming to sit back and admire his work after they connect. That type of attitude won’t get him far against high level fighters, even if he is the superior athlete.

Lim isn’t a dynamic athlete like Perry, but he knows how to use his size extremely well. Well, at least in the clinch he knows what he is doing. He overwhelms his opponent with his power from there, leveraging his knees so that they destroy the body of his opposition. He isn’t that fleet of foot though and can struggle to get the fight there. Otherwise he is largely a brawler who throws his fists with reckless abandon, largely neglecting any thought of defense.

The wild card is the ground game. Neither has shown an inclination to take the fight there, though Lim’s takedown defense has proven to be sound against respectable competition. He hasn’t shown much other than the ability to survive if he is taken down. Perry has used his brute strength to get opponents to the floor, though I wouldn’t expect that to work on Lim.

Perry is far too inactive for my liking. He has some fundamentals down to build on a serious power in his hooks, but I can’t see him being able to counter or overcome the onslaught that Lim is no doubt going to be bringing. It should be fun while it lasts, which probably won’t be long.Lim via KO of RD2

Tim Means (25-7-1) vs. Sabah Homasi (11-5), Welterweight

Homasi may not have the name value that fans want in their main card fights. Nor does the more established Means for that matter. But their styles clash perfectly for the type of violent contest the UFC loves to open their PPV main cards with.

Means is fresh off of his suspension for a tainted supplement that took him out of his first headlining spot against the aforementioned Cerrone. Now that is all in the past and Means has had his name restored as much as it can be following any sort of drug test failure. With so much doubt in the atmosphere nowadays, no one seems to maintain a clean reputation anymore. If nothing else, it provides him with motivation to get out there and prove he deserved that top spot that he lost.

Homasi is taking this bout on extremely short notice, having only fought two weeks ago in Titan FC. He was on the TUF season featuring ATT vs. Blackzillians, falling short against natural lightweight and current Bellator fighter Carrington Banks. Homasi looks improved since leaving the house, riding three straight victories into his UFC debut, all of them by KO.

Means has long had a reputation as a dangerous clinch fighter and deservedly so. Few have elbows as vicious in close range as he does which combine with his knees from the plum clinch as an especially deadly combination. What is promising is his improved use of his 75″ reach with jabs, leg kicks, and front kicks flowing at a rapid pace. Means has grown comfortable in the pocket as well, mixing his punches to the head and body to make his high-octane Muay Thai attack that much better.

Like Means, Homasi is almost purely a striker. More of a bully in the clinch as he uses his brute strength to push his opponent against the cage, Homasi likes to unload with powerful hooks that will end the fight if they connect cleanly. He gets himself into trouble when he starts headhunting, losing any semblance of technique and winging punches that are as likely to hit the referee than they are his opponent. When under control, his flicks out a nice jab and leg kicks out in space as he prefers to look for the counter.

Don’t expect this fight to go to the ground. Means proved against George Sullivan that he can wrestle when the mood strikes him and even showed a bit of a submission game. But he’s completely a striker at heart. Homasi only goes to the ground when he has knocked his opponent there as opposed to a takedown. He has some vicious ground and pound if he can get the fight to that territory.

I’ll be shocked if this fight elicits any boos. Both Means and Homasi are entertaining as hell and are continually looking for the finish. Homasi does have more power, but Means offers a much more controlled and consistent approach. He appeared to be hitting his stride before the crap with USADA, though it will be hard to predict how he’ll be coming off of the layoff. I think we’ll see him in peak form. Means via TKO of RD2