There isn’t a single sexy matchup in the FS1 prelims, but this is where Joe Silva and Sean Shelby really excelled at their jobs for this card. Each contest should be competitive with none of them having an overwhelming favorite. It also offers a nice mix of dark horse contenders and prospects. In fact, I’d say this is the strongest part of the event, ahead of even the main card, which features too many one-sided contests. Maybe I should stop criticizing the main card, but in what universe is Renan Barao vs. Philippe Nover a competitive fight? I really need to move on….

The FS1 prelims start at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.

Gilbert Burns (11-1) vs. Michel Prazeres (20-2), Lightweight

After a severe stumble against Rashid Magomedov, the UFC has scaled back his level of competition for Burns and he is getting a different challenge in tough and durable vet Prazeres.

Because Burns is far from a finished product and has received so much hype, it is easy to forget that he is already 30-years old. Nonetheless, his lack of experience means he is far from his ceiling and the lack of tread on his tires also indicates that he shouldn’t begin slowing down for many years to come. Whether or not he ever reaches the high expectations placed on him is another story, but he looked ultra-sharp in disposing of Lukasz Sajewski in his last outing.

Prazeres doesn’t get anyone excited when they hear he is fighting. It doesn’t mean he isn’t good. It just means that he’s pretty boring. Every one of his six UFC fights have gone the distance and none of them have ever been in the discussion for a performance bonus. Regardless, he’s a tough out and has proven ideal for testing youngsters to see if they are ready to advance past the mid-level of the division.

Prazeres’ standup isn’t really UFC caliber, but he makes it work for his grinding style. At 5’6″ with a 67″ reach, he works at a physical disadvantage and though he tosses a jab out there, its effectiveness is limited. Where he is able to find success is winging powerful hooks as he closes the distance to either shoot for the takedown or clinch up. It isn’t that he offers much offense from the clinch, but he does have a series of trips and throws he can offer to get the fight where he is most comfortable.

Burns offers a deeper striking repertoire, he just hasn’t been able to make it functional yet. He’s technical and mixes kicks in with his combinations very well, but they are rote as opposed to organic in addition to leaving a number of holes in his defense. Nonetheless, he’ll own a 4″ reach advantage over Prazeres and considering Prazeres is more concerned with getting the fight to the ground – an area Burns is more than comfortable with – than countering, Burns should feel comfortable sitting on his strikes and picking apart his shorter counterpart.

Even though Burns wants the fight standing, make no mistake that the fight will hit the ground at some point and will probably be there the majority of the time. Prazeres doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a submission specialist since he hasn’t gotten one in the UFC. Make no mistake that he has a deep bag of tricks with taking the back for a RNC being his specialty. He’s been more of a grinder looking to maintain position at the highest level and he may want to maintain that against Burns. Burns hasn’t shown the best takedown defense either, though that may have something to do with the former World BJJ champion having confidence in his grappling abilities. Burns has been more of a positional grappler himself, though his athletic gifts have made it easier for him to capture submissions in transition than has been the case for Prazeres.

Even though this feels pretty easy to call, I still like the matchup. Burns never should have been fighting Magomedov in the first place and this contest is healthier for his development. Nobody has challenged Burns on the ground and Prazeres may just be the man to that. I don’t think Burns will finish his durable opponent, but he’ll earn a clear cut decision in the eyes of the judges. Burns via decision

Rani Yahya (22-8) vs. Michinori Tanaka (11-1), Bantamweight

While Yahya isn’t anything more than a gatekeeper, he’s a good one and he’ll provide a stern test for Tanaka, one of the better Japanese prospects in a long time.

You’d think after three straight wins, Yahya would want a step up in competition. Apparently not as he is getting a prospect whose last victory was controversial and may have resulted in him being cut had he not pulled it out. At 31, Yahya seems content to test the new blood of the division rather than trying to move up the ladder as his last contest against a potential contender was five years ago against Chad Mendes.

Tanaka could prove to be a contender himself someday, but that day would be quite a few years away. He hasn’t developed at the pace that most expected he would, though he isn’t a bust by any means as his 2-1 UFC record is respectable. Some have suggested that he may be better suited to ply his trade at flyweight. If he is unable to deal with Yahya, expect those talks to heat up again.

Even though he’s expected to have a significant advantage on the feet, Tanaka’s standup is far from fully developed. He falls into bouts of inactivity with powerful leg kicks being his best weapon. Tanaka relies heavily on his quickness to burst in and out of range, winging power hooks with the occasional step-in knee. Yahya’s striking isn’t completely useless, though he isn’t going to end a fight with his fists. Leg kicks are also his most consistent weapon with his fists being used to cover distance as he looks to clinch up for the takedown.

Sticky may be the best word to describe Yahya as he stays attached to his opponent at all costs going for the takedown, advancing his position, or searching for a sub. The world-class BJJ ace isn’t a traditional wrestler and doesn’t possess much explosion, but he does well with the physical gifts he does possess to drag the fight to the ground and keep it there. If they do stand back up, he stays on them to go back to the ground or even take the back. However, Yahya isn’t very athletic or strong and can be outmuscled by a superior wrestler with good submission defense.

Athletic and strong describes Tanaka very well. No, he isn’t the biggest 135er, but he possesses great strength for his size and is amongst the quickest bantamweights on the roster. He can be overconfident at times and get himself into bad positions and it would be foolhardy of him to be overaggressive against Yahya. He does have the wrestling advantage as his shots are super-quick, but I wouldn’t expect him to aggressively pursue takedowns in this contest.

This is a fantastic test for Tanaka and hardly one he is guaranteed to pass. Yahya showed he can still turn away young prospects in his last contest against Matthew Lopez, but I’m favoring the youngster here for a very important reason: Yahya’s stamina. He has never been able to sustain the pace he sets in the first round and against someone as physically gifted as Tanaka, I think he’ll gas sooner than usual. Tanaka via TKO of RD3

Jussier Formiga (18-4) vs. Dustin Ortiz (15-5), Flyweight

Considering Demetrious Johnson has cleaned out the top of the division, it’s plausible either one of these two could earn a title shot if they can string together a couple of wins… starting now.

Formiga has been the highest ranked flyweight to not have faced Mighty Mouse for quite some time. However, he has also lost at every opportunity to secure the win that will grant him the title opportunity that he has been looking for. To be fair, his losses have only come to the best in the division as John Dodson, Joseph Benavidez, and Henry Cejudo are no slouches who immediately got their title shots after disposing of Formiga. Sooner or later, it has to be Formiga’s turn… right?

Ortiz is hoping the tradition of beating Formiga results in a title shot, but odds are that he’ll have a bit more work to do if he can pull off the upset. It’s easy to forget the American is still only 27-years old and can still improve since it feels as though he’s been around forever. A loss here will be two in a row which could put him on thin ice with the injection of talent the division is receiving with this season’s cast of TUF. It could be a must-win situation for Ortiz.

Despite coming out of Roufusport, Ortiz is actually more of a wrestler-grappler than he is a striker. He may want to try and keep things standing against Formiga who is one of the most vaunted pure grapplers in the sport, not just the division. Few are better at getting the back and Formiga doesn’t need a full takedown to find it. He doesn’t take many risks which is why submissions haven’t been very common for him in the UFC, but he is suffocating with his pressure and will often find a way to get the RNC if given enough time. While he has struggled with the elite wrestlers of the division in Benavidez and Cejudo, Formiga is savvy with his takedowns, utilizing trips and timing his shots with his relentless chain wrestling.

Ortiz’s greatest strength might be in scrambles as he too is quick and a solid wrestler to boot. But does he really want to take the fight into Formiga’s world? Considering Ortiz has some solid kick-punch combinations, turning to his striking wouldn’t be a bad option. He often operates out of the clinch as he usually looks for takedowns from there, though he often lands some good offense from there with his dirty boxing and knees to the body.

Formiga has gotten a bum reputation as a pillow-fisted striker and while that may have been true at one point, he has made great strides to at least be respectable on the feet. He showed his progress in his most recent win by knocking Wilson Reis to the ground. He is still incredibly basic, circling with his right hand cocked and ready for the counter with the occasional one-two, though it is more than the leg kicks that used to be his only effective strike.

Ortiz has been one of the most durable and versatile fighters in the division with the ability to survive wherever the fight goes. However, his lack of a specialized area works against him here as Formiga can do more than just survive on the feet. Formiga can be a threat there and is more than likely to dominate the ground game. Formiga will either be the first to finish Ortiz – no doubt with a sub if it happens – or he’ll dominate him on the ground for a decision. Formiga via submission of RD2

Erick Silva (18-7, 1 NC) vs. Luan Chagas (14-1-1), Welterweight

Silva has been around for far too long to be considered a prospect anymore. In fact, he’s probably fighting for a roster spot against the 23-year old Chagas.

It’s probably going a bit too far to say that Silva completely wasted his potential as he did score some nice wins over his UFC career. But it can’t be denied that he never came close to reaching the expectations many had for him. Rumors have been floating about that his decline has coincided with the UFC’s implementation of USADA testing. Should he fall flat here, he’ll only be fanning the flames that fuels the fire of his critics.

As the Brazilian scene is kind of a crapshoot in terms of prospect quality, Chagas wasn’t overly lauded upon his short-notice UFC debut against Sergio Moraes. He came out very strong to take the first round before fading, making a good impression against the BJJ expert. Silva represents a different kind of challenge and it will be interesting to see how the youngster responds.

While there is no doubt that Silva has looked different since USADA came into play, he also had a change in camps before his last contest against Nordine Taleb. What’s weird is Kings MMA usually makes their fighters more aggressive. However, it should be noted he has already returned to Brazil to train closer to home. Perhaps that would be impossible to make Silva more aggressive as he has earned every one of his UFC victories in the first round, but you’d think some degree of his trademark aggression would have still existed. Alas, it was absent. He’s never been a combination striker, preferring to blitz with powerful overhands while mixing in hard kicks while he waits for his attack.

Chagas is actually very reminiscent of Silva when Silva was first making his way up the UFC ladder. He doesn’t have the same power, but he does throw a barrage of punches as he moves forward. What he does have in his advantage is a wide variety of kicks that he throws with accuracy and power to all levels. His hands are still fairly sloppy and he leaves himself out there for return fire. Still, he showed a more disciplined approach than anyone expected against Moraes, which is promising.

What might give one or the other an edge is if they can show an improved gas tank as both have a history of fading hard after the first round. Chagas did take his fight with Moraes on short notice, but he was also training for a fight anyways. What provides hope is he was able to survive on the ground with Moraes and even got the better of some scrambles. Silva is extremely aggressive in looking for subs, locking in chokes in transition and squeezing with all he has. If unable to finish them off, he has traditionally sapped his energy in the process and made himself an easy target at that point.

I liked what I saw out of the youngster against Moraes and feel as though he could be on the roster for a long time. If Silva can show he still has the explosion that made him so dangerous, I still favor him despite the promise of Chagas. However, it hasn’t been seen in Silva’s last two appearances and as often as he has been violently finished, I have to question his durability as well. Chagas pulls off the upset on a fading Silva. Chagas via KO of RD2