Normally my colleagues David Castillo and Phil Mackenzie would be breaking down the co-main event of UFC Fight Night Portland in a way that only they can do. Unfortunately for all of you readers, circumstances dictate that I do so. I can only hope as informative as they are as I know that I can’t offer the same entertainment value.

So what do we have here? Former Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks looks to impress with his sophomore UFC effort in order to secure bigger name fights while the raw bundle of physical skills that is Alex Oliveira looks to upset the apple cart. While Brooks has developed a reputation as a boring fighter, Oliveira is about as good of a candidate as any to drag out some excitement from his fellow athletic freak. At least we certainly hope so….

Here we go!

Will Brooks (18-1) vs. Alex Oliveira (15-4-1, 1 NC), Lightweight (Note: Oliveira missed weight by 5.5 pounds)

Brooks may have won his UFC debut in a victory over Ross Pearson back in July, but he did so in a fashion that had many people believing that the former Bellator champion won’t come close to living up to the high expectations that have been placed on him. It is worth noting though that he didn’t get a full camp to prepare for the crafty Pearson. Being able to properly prepare for an opponent should make a great deal of difference for Brooks’ level of performance. If it does, expect Brooks’ name to be bantered about with the biggest names in the division. He didn’t come to the UFC to bully lesser names. He came to be champion… and he has the talent to do it.

Many see Oliveira’s name opposite of Brooks and automatically think of this contest as a mismatch. In terms of the quality of competition they have faced, there is a lot of truth to that. The biggest name Oliveira has disposed of is a past-his-prime KJ Noons. In terms of physical skills, it’s actually very even. Oliveira has only been competing professionally for five years and is still very raw. The parts of Oliveira’s game that are refined are enough to allow him to upset Brooks. He’s just going to have to fight smart in order to do that.

Everyone knows that Brooks is a great wrestler. It’s a bit of a detriment to him as many of his performances have simply been him smothering his opposition for the duration of the contest, scoring only a single finish in his last eight wins. Brooks really is an all-around fighter with great striking. The issue is that he is not only most comfortable with wrestling, but it is also his best area. So why mess with it if it works? An explosive double-leg set up by a stiff jab or boxing combinations gets the fight to the ground and suffocating top control keeps it there. Brooks isn’t exactly a slick BJJ practitioner, though he is exceptionally difficult to submit and has developed some smooth guard passing. If his opponents slip up for just a moment, he’ll slip in a triangle choke and get the finish.

Oliveira’s major weakness is on the ground, as his grappling and wrestling skill-sets have been the last parts to come around. His massive frame has allowed him to find success in taking down opponents when he chooses to do so, though I wouldn’t expect him to try and do that with Brooks. Even if he does, Brooks has some of the best takedown defense in the sport. In terms of his grappling, Oliveira has shown all sorts of holes. Once Gilbert Burns got him to the ground, he was able to have his way with him. Brooks isn’t Burns in terms of submission skills, though he probably won’t have too hard of a time controlling the Brazilian for long stretches. Where Oliveira has proven to have a natural talent for is in scrambles where his long limbs make it difficult to untangle from his grasp.

Where Oliveira is best is at range acting as a counter puncher. With great quick-twitch speed and athleticism complimented with a 5’11” frame and 76″ reach, he can cover distance in a hurry. While Oliveira is still working out angles and timing in terms of leading the attack, he can through the occasional jab and kicks to all levels in order to keep Brooks off-balance as Oliveira’s power isn’t to be taken lightly. He doesn’t need a clean shot to rock an opponent.

Brooks isn’t helpless on the outside, though he will be giving up 4″ in reach to Oliveira in addition to being used to having a massive advantage in athleticism. Much like Oliveira, a jab and leveled kicks are the basis of his attack from outside, though Brooks’ technique is much cleaner and traditional than the unorthodox Oliveira. That doesn’t necessarily give him an advantage though as Oliveira’s unpredictability is also one of his biggest strengths. Look for Brooks to take the fight to the clinch where he loves ravaging the body with knees from the Thai plum. That will be a challenge for him though as Oliveira is incredibly skilled in the clinch as well. Few have proven stronger than the Brazilian at 155, as he has been able to ragdoll opponents from time to time. Though I doubt he does that with Brooks, it doesn’t mean that he won’t win the exchanges in close quarters.

Personally, I wish this contest was taking place another year or two down the road when Brooks should still be in his prime and Oliveira should be entering his. It’s still a fascinating fight as it is now; I just don’t feel Oliveira is quite ready for this level yet. His fight with Donald Cerrone was only 7 months ago and though he had a few moments in the short time the fight took place, he crumbled once Cerrone was able to expose a weakness. Brooks is calm under pressure and a tactician in the cage. He may not get the finish, but he’ll figure out what he needs to do to win and he’ll do it. Expect Brooks to walk away with a win, even if he ends up starting slow. Brooks via decision