An Early Look at Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux: Who has the slight edge?

Boxingnews24.com

By John Tsoi: On December 9, boxing fans will witness a clash between two of the most skillful boxers on the planet when Vasyl Lomachenko and Guillermo Rigondeaux go head-to-head in Madison Square Garden. With both being not one, but two-time Olympic gold medalists, hardcore boxing enthusiasts have been salivating over this matchup for years. Past negotiation issues are resolved and the weight is set at super featherweight, meaning that Lomachenko and Rigondeaux can finally settle the score inside the squared circle on who is the greater of the two.

Although the fight is two months away, it is never too early to look at how seasoned the skills of each fighter are, how their styles contribute to the matchup tactically, and last but not least, who has the slight edge leading into the fight.

To begin with, both boxers are magnificent in their own fighting style. Lomachenko has an effective offensive system that involves accurate punch combinations and swift footwork, something that took him years of hard work to perfect since his amateur career. He even revealed that he had dance lessons as a teen just to hone his boxing footwork – one of the best weapons in his arsenal. As one delve into why his footwork makes him so successful, the word “purposeful” has to be mentioned. In boxing, students are often taught to move, such as moving their heads to avoid having a static target for their opponents. While this is true, the best fighters embrace the ideology of moving with purpose, instead of moving for the sake of doing it. Lomachenko moves a lot, but every movement serves a particular purpose. For example, he likes to take a small sidestep and lean to his left or right to exploit defensive openings, which is very effective given his speed. Another one of his favorite is to punch while turning his opponent around, creating a beneficial angle for him to land clean punches before his rival has time to adjust the positioning. To further understand this concept, one can watch his fight against Nicholas Walters. He tried to move around Walters while throwing punches instead of staying in front of Walter’s guard. Moreover, Lomachenko is extremely wise in his punch selection, stringing up combinations that open up even the most defensive fighters. In terms of power, Lomachenko is never a one-punch knockout artist, but one that breaks his opponents down, which is psychologically advantageous for him. When a boxer with brutal power fails to hurt his opponent, it casts a shroud of doubt over his or her ability to win. However, in Lomachenko’s case, even if his opponent can take his punches, he maintains the mental edge knowing that every punch landed will eventually pay off in the long run.

As for Rigondeaux, he is easily one of the most underrated boxers in the world right now. Quite a number of people have branded his style as “boring”, but they are probably the ones who missed out on the subtleties of the Cuban’s boxing skills. As an accurate counter puncher and a deft defensive wizard, there is no opponent that has solved his puzzle yet. His style can be described as that of a “minimalist”, that is, he never wastes any punches or movements. The number of punches that he throws in a fight might not be high compared to the others, but he is always able to land at a high percentage. Defensively, he takes a step back or to the side just enough to evade a punch and remain in position to counter. His lead hand is worth mentioning when talking about his defensive system. He is never a fighter who adopts a high guard; instead, he uses his lead right hand to act as a defensive line, which also confuses his opponents on how to surpass it while he is already thinking a few steps ahead on how to counter. His head movement and footwork might not be as flashy as that of Lomachenko, but they contribute to his elusiveness inside the ring, making him a tough opponent to land punches on.

Now, let’s look at the two main keys to victory for each fighter. For Rigondeaux, the first key would be how well he adapts to super featherweight, a weight class that he has never fought in. It is proven that fighting a top opponent immediately after entering a new weight class can be really taxing. An example would be how Roman Gonzalez moved up to 115 lbs, fought a tough opponent in Carlos Cuadras, and obviously had problems in terms of physicality and punching power, which is exploited in his recent knockout defeat. Rigondeaux is now moving up two weight classes, a significant 8-pound difference from super bantamweight, to face a bigger foe in the Ukrainian. The question is, if he bulks up significantly, will his speed and stamina be adversely affected? If he decides to stay relatively unchanged in terms of body size, will his punching power that broke the jaws of James Dickens and Hisashi Amagasa be reduced in a higher weight class? Perhaps, if he can maintain his punching power at 130 lbs, his chances to win will be much higher since he is bound to land some accurate shots on Lomachenko, and his power behind those punches will make Lomachenko feel hesitant in terms of coming in to land combinations.

The second key for Rigondeaux would be to maintain the distance against Lomachenko. The Cuban is never known for his inside fighting, but for his ability to establish a favorable range and counterpunch his opponents. The last thing he would want to do is to get close to Lomachenko, where he will have no advantage in terms of physical strength. He would need to be defensively responsible all of the time against the Ukrainian’s distance-cutting tactics. For example, if Lomachenko sidesteps to Rigondeaux’s pawing jab, the Cuban should be prepared to shoot his lethal left uppercut or the right hook and move away to establish distance again. Against Lomachenko’s plethora of offensive techniques, Rigondeaux needs to deploy the counterpunch-and-move strategy, which if done well, would give him a victory and propel him to newer heights.

As for Lomachenko, the first key would be trying to catch Rigondeaux with a big punch by stepping around and forcing him to turn. A simple example would be an opponent stepping around to your right. You are forced to adjust and turn right to face your opponent, otherwise he can hit you easily while you cannot. However, the key is not only to turn, but to turn away from your opponent, that is, also stepping backwards while turning, which creates a distance to avoid the opponent from catching you. Rigondeaux showed this defensive technique exceptionally well against Nonito Donaire, except for the one time he was knocked down in the tenth round because he stayed too close while being turned. The same thing happened when Amagasa knocked Rigondeaux down for the first time in the seventh round, where he turned but failed to step back. Therefore, although Rigondeaux’s defense is outstanding, Lomachenko might try to catch him the way he was caught before.

The second key would be to trap Rigondeaux to the ropes when opportunities arise. As elusive as Rigondeaux can be, Lomachenko’s quick footwork could generate occasions where Rigondeaux will have little space to move away, and that is when the Ukrainian can unleash the combinations and hope to hurt his foe. One advantage of high volume punchers like Lomachenko is that if they are able to pull off their combination punching, even if some land on the gloves or are parried, they are still favoured in the scorecards because they are out-punching the opponent. Therefore, it would be of paramount importance for Lomachenko to cut off the escape routes of Rigondeaux and reduce the distance to make Rigondeaux uncomfortable.

Personally, I believe Lomachenko would have a very slight edge in this fight because of three simple reasons. One, a great big man always beats a great little man, in which the size difference should be evident in the face-offs and weigh-in. Two, Lomachenko is easily the “A-side” in this fight, and with his promoter Top Rank’s Bob Arum, the decision should favor Lomachenko in a close battle. Three, as mentioned above, both guys will land on each other given their accuracy, and the higher volume puncher could have an edge. However, I do think that both fighters, especially Rigondeaux, might showcase something we have not seen them do yet, something that will surprise us and probably make a case for fight of the year.

Amidst the occurrences of fighters ducking and avoiding each other in the past few years, Lomachenko vs. Rigondeaux represents two boxers fighting not only for money and fame, but for the pride of their own countries, and most importantly, to adhere with the spirit that boxers are fighters that accept the biggest of challenges. Rigondeaux willingly jumped two weight classes without a tune-up fight to face the best in the super featherweight division, while Lomachenko is also willing to face a high-risk opponent in Rigondeaux that most in his position would avoid, much similar to when Canelo decided to face Erislandy Lara to prove that he is among the best. Rigondeaux labeled this fight through his social media as “Not Afraid”. Indeed, neither fighter is afraid. And we need more boxers with this kind of heart and character.