Hunter analyzes Canelo vs. Chavez Jr.

Boxingnews24.com

By Dan Ambrose: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs) and his promoters at Golden Boy are seen a smart in choosing the ring rusty Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (50-2-1, 32 KOs) for his next fight on May 6, and getting him to agree to fight at a catch-weight of 164 ½ pounds. Trainer Virgil Hunter thinks Canelo and Golden Boy could be making a big mistake in picking out the 31-year-old Chavez Jr

Chavez Jr. is taking the fight seriously, and is already in excellent condition in the photos that he’s seen of him. Chavez Jr. says he’s already down to 178, and he expects to lose 3 more pounds to get to 175 for the fight on May 6 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight will be televised on HBO pay-per-view.

Hunter says that the Chavez Jr. that beat Andy Lee by a 7th round knockout in their fight on June 16, 2012, would be a real problem for Canelo. Hunter suspects that Chavez Jr. might still be a middleweight when you have him training hard and not eating and drinking the wrong things.

“I think if Chavez Jr. makes the weight right and is disciplined and does what he’s capable of doing, I think it’s a very interesting fight,” said Virgil Hunter to Fighthype.com about the Chavez Jr. vs. Canelo fight. “I would not be surprised if Canelo wins the fight. I think there’s more to him than people realize. I think they’re looking at his last couple of years when he was fighting and kind of letting himself go and having his issues. Just the weight he’s at right now and the photos with Beristain, who is going to make a difference. Beristain is going to make a difference because his legend speaks for itself. I think they [Canelo and Golden Boy Promotions] could have bit off a little too much if Chavez is right. I think they bit off a little too much if he’s right,” said Hunter.

It’s not good news for Canelo if Chavez Jr. is able to get back to the fighter he was when he stopped Andy Lee. That version of Chavez Jr. was able and willing to take the best shots from Lee. Chavez Jr. battered Lee against the ropes with body and head shots. That could easily be Canelo if he lets himself get backed up to the ropes in the same manner. We don’t even know how well trained Chavez Jr. was for the Lee fight. If he only partially trained for the fight, then you can suspect that he’ll be much better when he gets inside the ring with Canelo on May 6.

Hunter says that Chavez Jr’s father Julio Cesar Chavez is saying that Chavez Jr. can’t afford to let Canelo beat him. It’s really important for Chavez not to have his son get beaten by Canelo. If Chavez Jr. has some important reason to fight for, he’s going to be much more motivated when he gets inside the ring with Canelo. In Hunter’s mind, if Canelo cannot hurt Chavez Jr. in this fight, then that’s where he’s going to have a lot of problems, because he’s going to get hit a lot. Chavez Jr. will land a lot of shots in the fight, and Canelo hasn’t had to taste the kind of power that Chavez Jr. has in his arsenal. Canelo’s fights have been against guys that either couldn’t punch or didn’t last long enough for them to land their shots. James Kirkland had a lot of power, but he fought such a poor fight in losing quickly to Canelo by a 3rd round knockout in their fight in 2015.

“It’s definitely bad blood. I just read an article where his father said, ‘You can’t lose to him. He cannot lose to him.’ He’s not an old man trying to come down,” said Hunter. “It’s not like when Pacquiao was bringing everybody down. When you look at Junior, he made 168 for his last fight. It’s not like he’s coming from 175. That gives him a great head start in that situation. I would not be surprised to see Junior win that fight,” said Hunter.

Chavez Jr. used to be very good at cutting weight to get down to 160. He was able to do it expertly to make the middleweight limit. Chavez Jr. was always really strong after he would make weight and rehydrate to come into the ring with a weight advantage. If Chavez Jr. can do that against Canelo, he’s going to be pretty big. Canelo might weight as much as Chavez Jr., but he’s going to be getting hit hard by him. Canelo’s last opponent Liam Smith was able to hit him a lot, but he didn’t have Chavez Jr’s kind of power. The 6’0” Chavez Jr. is more of a body puncher than Liam Smith was, and he’s able to get a lot of leverage on his power shots to the body.

Canelo is going to have to take those body shots if he wants to win the fight, because he’s not mobile enough for him to keep from getting hit. Chavez Jr. has a better jab than Canelo, and a 3-inch reach advantage. That’s pretty significant. When you have a long reach like the one that Chavez Jr. has going for him, it means he could dominate when he’s on the outside if he chooses to fight from the distance. We saw how Floyd Mayweather Jr. was able to use his own reach advantage to jab Canelo from the outside in their fight in 2013. Chavez Jr. could take a page out of Mayweather’s playbook to jab Canelo to pieces from the outside.

“Skill-wise, he should have his moments,” said Hunter about Canelo. “If he can’t hurt Chavez, that’s where the problems are going to start. If he can hurt Chavez, unless something where he gets caught, you have to give him his shot out victorious. But if he can’t hurt him, we could have a really interesting fight. I think if he’s in good shape, I think he can be very competitive,” said Hunter about Chavez Jr. “I think about the styles; you think the Chavez that beat Andy Lee wouldn’t Canelo problems? He would. He would. But maybe the weight drain would get to him,” said Hunter.

The Chavez Jr. that beat Andy Lee in 2012, would be very difficult for Canelo to deal with. Chavez Jr. was walking through Lee’s big power shots, and nailing him with body punches over and over again. Lee was able to take the punishment for 6 rounds, but he finally crumbled in the 7th under a storm of big punches from Chavez Jr. Canelo wins or loses based on whether he can hurt Chavez Jr. or not. If Canelo can hurt Chavez Jr., the he has a very good chance of winning. But if Canelo can’t hurt Chavez Jr., then he’s going to need to take a lot of big shots in the fight.

“Of course, you have Canelo coming up in weight, so he doesn’t have to starve himself. So he’ll have a little more energy. If he was able to eat well and make the weight, you won’t see dark circles around his eyes,” said Hunter. “He might still be a middleweight when you eliminate the drinking,” said Hunter about Chavez Jr. “He was eating real Mexican food. He was getting the best. You got to cut that out. He might still be a middleweight. Who knows? It could backfire [on Golden Boy and Canelo,” said Hunter.

Well, it’s good news that Chavez Jr. is already down to 178 lbs. Chavez Jr. has a little over a month to go to get down to 175, so that he can begin dehydrating the remaining 10 ½ pounds to make the 164 ½ pound catch-weight for the fight on May 6. I think it should be easy for Chavez Jr. to take the last 10 lbs. off.