Keith Thurman Will Beat Errol Spence, No Doubt

Boxingnews24.com

By J. Ortega: Past Saturday, Errol Spence Jr. ended the virtue out of Kell Brook with a good performance that broke Brook’s eye socket in front of his hometown, making him take a knee and quit. Before Brook quit, the match-up was even in terms of competitiveness. I believe Brook drained to 147lb, after he came down from 160lbs, took a toll on his physique fatigued in the later rounds. Unlike his fight with Shawn Porter, Brook’s endurance went systematically down in the later rounds, so Spence took full advantage of his performance and slowly mowed down Brook.

Spence is a dangerous fighter, he is relentless in the ring and keeps his pace constant among the rounds. He inflicts punishment over and over again till the opponent finally can’t take it anymore. He also places his shots accurately and times his jabs and body punches very well. His reach allows Spence to watchtower his opponents, creating a range gap his opponents are not able to exploit. But in his fight with Brook, Spence also showed me a flaw that needs to be immediately corrected — a flaw that will end his reign sooner or later in bad fashion –a flaw that Keith Thurman will exploit.

Spence uses his high guard to defend, and shields his head to neutralize the shots of his opponents. He also pads away jabs gone his direction, to try to deflect their course from landing on his head. Against Brook, Spence got caught many times, with long range and short jabs. He also got caught by a few uppercuts when he was pushed against the ropes and in the middle of the ring – as Brook would not allow him to take the lead in the center of the ring to initiate his game plan. Spence started by playing counter-style boxing at first, but wasn’t too successful, so he tried to go head to head and find his range by creating short spaces shoving Brook to the ropes so he could release his signature shots. Within Spence’s transition of styles, Brook was able to catch Spence flush way to many times for my comfort. Every time Brook bullied Spence, it became an ugly un-composed fight where shots were being successfully traded in the process, but as the rounds progressed Spence got the best out of exchanges.

Against Keith Thurman, Spence will not go toe to toe. Thurman has not showed boxing fans half of his arsenal. Before his fight with Jesus Soto Karass – who has the same exact arm reach as Spence – Thurman went toe to toe with all his opponents and shredded them to pieces. Against his other opponents Thurman pretty much decided to showcase his skills, instead of showing only one facet of his boxing repertoire. Thurman knocked out Diego Chaves in his prime, and gave him his first loss. He retired Julio Diaz with a devastating punch to the body. Thurman was the first man to ever make Luis Collazo – the most underrated boxer puncher in boxing – quit in the seventh-eight round. He easily outmaneuvered Danny Garcia in the first four rounds, and did exactly the same with Robert Guerrero and Leonard Bundu – the last two opponents were knocked down in the first rounds. Shawn Porter was the only boxer who gave Thurman a war, and unlike Brook, Thurman didn’t clinch and went toe to toe. No one has ever played Porter’s pressure game –a relentless and tireless pressure fighter — and won, except for Thurman. Brook played a counter game, not a pressure fight.

Thurman has played it safe against his last six opponents to showcase his skills. But his opponents agree in one thing, the man has devastating power. Porter said in an interview after his fight with Thurman, “I’ve never felt power like that before.” Guerrero said, “Thurman has lots of power.” Chaves said, “He has devastating one time power.” And just recently Bundu gave an interview to an online publication and stated “Thurman has more snap power than Spence and better boxing skills,” and believes “Thurman will defeat Spence.”

The way Spence fights will force Thurman to become the boxer who was shredding opponents before the Soto Karass fight. Spence does not have better footwork than Thurman or defense, and he does not have the one time snap power to change the rhythm of the fight like Deontay Wilder, instead Spence builds up punches till he breaks downs his opponents using constant aggression. Thurman is a stone axe and Spence is a chainsaw. If Thurman lands less than half of the shots Brook landed on Spence, Spence will get KO’d in the first five rounds. Brook also doesn’t set traps with his uppercuts like Thurman, who has the highest ratio of uppercuts landed facing opponents. Thurman was consistently hit in the body by Porter and Garcia, who were not able to put him down. In fact, the most successful fighter to inflict punishment on the body against Thurman, was not Collazo but Chaves who landed great power shots – Chaves the most technical fighter Thurman fought without a doubt, and he went down with one shot.

Spence’s biggest problem has always being his defense. In the Olympics he didn’t lose based on his technique or speed, he lost because his opponents kept landing shots in his head, and couldn’t block the counters. If Spence only corrected his defense he could become an all-time great. He is relentless and can capitalize in your flaws, but with his current style it’s almost impossible for his head to not get countered and suffer in return a devastating KO. Despite his victory, his fight against Brook, exposed his Olympic days. If Spence does not correct his flaw and his head remains exposed, and Thurman goes toe to toe with Spence, he won’t last five rounds. Thurman is the smaller fighter, but his body punches are devastating and Spence being the taller boxer – do to the physics of height – will have his body widely exposed every time he throws a jab.

They are those who say Thurman is not composed enough and throws his punches wide. Actually, it looks like he throws wide because he misses the target, so the arm natural extends wide. Thurman’s style is awkward, but if those ‘wide shots’ make contact, it will damage any opponent. And that is another problem to the equation, Spence will have a hard time timing Thurman’s awkward explosive counters like the rest of the opponents who’ve have face him — it will be no different. It takes a defensive boxer like Floyd Mayweather Jr., to systematically pick apart Thurman’s flaws, but Spence doesn’t have that technical pedigree. Mayweather himself would find difficulty with Thurman’s style, because his power and placement come in fast pace explosive combinations with mean intentions.

A lot of people right now are static after Spence made Brook quit, but Brook has never been at the level of Thurman. Despite the title eliminator issue, Brook ducked Jessie Vargas and Chaves. The most technical fighter is Terrence Crawford, who unlike Spence, can switch his style and fight any fight. Crawford is the only boxer who will give Thurman real trouble, but Spence won’t stay undefeated for long if he does not work on his defense – any fighter who has fought using minimum defensive strategy at the championship level ended KO’d badly against a pure technical puncher. Also, Thurman’s coaching staff is one of the best in the game – certainly more technical than Spence’s coaching staff – the Ben Getty/Dan Birmingham School of boxing always comes with a great fight strategy, and they will surely pick up on Spence’s defensive flaws. Thurman did not flinched when Garcia tried to scare him during the face-off, he is just as confident as Spence, and he is hungry to unify all the belts for legacy. Thurman is the number one welterweight, and he will defeat Spence, if he pulls the dog fight – no doubts.

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