Mayweather picks Canelo by knockout over Chavez Jr.

By Jeff Aranow: Floyd Mayweather Jr says Saul “Canelo” Alvarez’s advantage in big fight experience will lead to him knocking out Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in the later rounds this Saturday night in their bout at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mayweather suggests that because Canelo has been in the ring with himself, Miguel Cotto and Erislandy Lara, it means that he’ll beat Chavez Jr.

What Mayweather doesn’t say is that Canelo lost to himself, and appeared to lose to Lara, and almost lost to Cotto. So it doesn’t matter that Canelo has had more experience, because he struggled against better opposition and was exposed.

“I’ll aim for Canelo in the late round, probably a knockout in the late rounds,” said Mayweather to Stephen Smith. “Canelo has more experience in big fights, but Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., he comes from a fighting family. He has a lot of fights under his belt, but not as much experience as Canelo. Canelo has a lot of experience, as far as being in big fights with myself, with [Erislandy] Lara, with also Miguel Cotto. Miguel Cotto has a lot of experience fighting Shane Mosley. So we’ll see how it plays out, but I’m leaning towards Canelo in a late round knockout,” said Mayweather in predicting Canelo to stop Chavez Jr.

Canelo doesn’t have experience against bigger fighters like Chavez Jr. That’s something that Mayweather didn’t discuss. Canelo is facing the biggest puncher of his career on Saturday night when he gets inside the ring with the 6’1” Chavez Jr, and that could be a real problem for him. One other area that Mayweather doesn’t talk about is the added weight that Canelo will be carrying around for this fight. He’s never fought a 12 round fight with the kind of weight that he’ll be fighting at this Saturday.

Canelo has stamina problems even when he was lighter. Now that he’s put on weight for this fight in their catchweight of 164.5lbs, it’s going to be harder for him to carry that weight around in the later rounds.

“I think it’s huge for the Hispanics,” said Mayweather when asked how significant the Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. fight is for boxing. “For the Hispanics, it’s very, very huge, but it’s good for boxing, period. It’s good for boxing. I know the ultimate goal is they want to see Canelo and Triple G. It takes time to build a fight of that magnitude. But this is a very interesting match-up, because I believe tomorrow, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is the bigger man, as for the size and weight, but Canelo has a lot more experience,” said Mayweather.

Canelo vs. Chavez Jr. is a big fight for the Mexican boxing fans, and for a lot of hardcore fans. Canelo hasn’t become a crossover star in boxing, so he’s still pretty much only popular with his fans and some of the hardcore fans. Canelo could become a crossover star in the future if he learns how to finally speak English, and if he starts fighting better opposition than what he’s been doing. Canelo isn’t going to win over a lot of casual boxing fans in the U.S taking soft fights against Liam Smith, Amir Khan, Alfredo Angulo, and James Kirkland.

Canelo needs to fight guys like Gennady Golovkin, Daniel Jacobs, Jermall Charlo, Demetrius Andrade, Jermell Charlo and Julian Williams. Those guys are a complete opposite from the fighters that Canelo has been fighting. Yeah, Canelo fought Mayweather, but he was old and small. It’s a different story in Canelo fighting guys that can potentially knock him out and that are as big or bigger than him.

“This guy started off at 135 if I’m not mistaken,” said Mayweather about Chavez Jr. when he started his boxing career as a teenager. “Chavez Jr. used to fight on my undercards, so he came from a small weight. He’s no different from Canelo, who worked his way up, and constantly put on weight like myself. I started out at 130 and moved up. I don’t know if it’s going to help him or not. We’ll just see tomorrow how things go,” said Mayweather.

Chavez Jr. did start out his career at 135, but that doesn’t mean that doesn’t mean anything. I’m not sure where Mayweather was going in talking about Chavez Jr. starting out at 135. Is Mayweather trying to say that because Chavez Jr. started out his career at 135, it means that he shouldn’t have problems with the 164.5 lb. catchweight that he had to make on Friday? Whatever weight that Chavez Jr. fought at when he was at a teenager ad just starting out his boxing career is immaterial to where he’s fighting at now. He’s bigger now and that’s all that matters.

If Mayweather was asked to boil down to his old weight of 130 lbs. for his fight against Conor McGregor, he’d have problems and likely be so weight drained that he’d be in danger of losing the fight.

“I think Canelo is going to win,” said featherweight world champion Leo Santa Cruz to Fighthub.com. “But if Chavez comes prepared, then I think he has a chance. Chavez Jr. has got go after him and try and make it a war. Chavez, I think he needs to move and show technique,” said Santa Cruz.

Chavez Jr’s best chance of winning the fight is go after Canelo and try and wear him down with pressure and a high work rate. Canelo was fading at times in his last fight against Liam Smith after being attacked hard in the first 5 rounds. Canelo was very tired by the 6th. It was Canelo’s good luck that Smith gassed out himself and couldn’t keep up the high pressure.

Chavez Jr. can’t box good enough from the outside to control the fight with Canelo to use his long reach. Chavez Jr’s jab is too slow due to his poor hand speed. He’s not capable of snapping a fast enough jab to beat Canelo from the outside. That might be one of the reasons why Chavez Jr. has fought most of his career at medium to close range in his fights. He doesn’t have the hand speed to be fighting on the outside against anyone.

If you look at the fights where Chavez Jr. has tried to fight on the outside, he’s always been worked over by fighters with better speed than him, which is pretty much everyone he’s faced. Chavez Jr’s only chance of beating Canelo is to get inside on him and try and beat him in a war. It will obviously favor Canelo early on due to his superior hand speed and excellent punching power, but Chavez Jr. could still wear him down and outlast him due to his superior chin and stamina.

Canelo hasn’t been forced into a war like that during his career, and he’s not been hit with the kind of shots that Chavez Jr. is capable of hitting him with tomorrow night. It’s going to be really hard for Canelo to take a lot of hard body shots from the 180+ lb. Chavez Jr. on Saturday night because he’s not had to battle anyone capable of hitting him with the withering fire that Chavez Jr will be on Saturday night. It’ll be a whole new experience for Canelo, and I don’t think he’ll be ready for it.