TUF 23 Finale: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Claudia Gadelha Toe to Toe Preview – Complete Breakdown

Joanna Champion tries to remain champion against an old nemesis this July 8, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

One sentence summary:

Phil: Technicality, athleticism and legit mutual hatred clash in one of the best fights available in the UFC.

David: Yesterday they fought to the tune of Cat Scratch Fever, today it’s the Deadly Rhythm.

Stats?

Record: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 11-0 Claudia Gadelha 13-1

Odds: Joanna Jedrzejczyk -130 Claudia Gadelha +110

History / Introduction to Both Fighters

Phil: The JJ and Gadelha fight was by many considered to be the one which would crown the future champion, the TUF season be damned. However, when Jedrzejczyk scraped the win, there seemed to be less confidence that she’d beat Esparza. She did, and pretty badly too. Through the Penne and Letourneau fights the strawweight champ has been taken into the hearts of fans pretty quickly, with an appealing combination of broken-English cuteness and ruthless ultra-violence.

David: Joanna blitzed onto the scene and has never stopped. She’s an interesting counterpoint to a division that is still dealing with so many neophytes. Yet here she stands, polished, world weary, and ready to drop bombs on all these calender girls trying to take her title.

Phil: Gadelha was the woman that everyone picked to be the champ. Almost everyone scored the first fight with Jedrzejczyk for the Brazilian, but a surprising amount then when back on their calls on rewatch. Personally I think this is fan likability bias, the kind of which Lawler has been the benefit of on multiple occasions (“I thought he lost it, but then looking back and desperately hunting for a way that he could have won it I am convinced that he did”). Gadelha’s a fine fighter, but she doesn’t generate affectionate nicknames like “Joanna Violence.”

David: On rewatch, and on first viewing, I don’t really see where the controversy comes from. It was a very competitive fight (and one I thought Joanna narrowly edged out), but not the kind of fight that warrants food fighting between mma hipsters and jaded journalists. Claudia showed just what she has to offer, to be sure: which is to say, the kind of game I can easily see taking Joanna’s title away from her.

What’s at stake?

Phil: Well, the belt, but this also offers a chance for Jedrzejczyk to send Gadelha to the back of the queue and to go 2-0 in a series which will doubtless have at least one more match in it. If Gadelha wins, we likely get another JJ rematch in the near future.

David: A high stakes title fight? Damn. What a change of pace. Joanna doesn’t lose much if any stock in losing because their first fight dictates it would always be competitive. The only way she loses stock is if she gets her trilogy right away (MMA could learn a thing or two from the political matchmaking of boxing, but only a thing or two…nothing more). For Gadelha, that’s tough, but she’s too talented to find herself in Joseph Benavidez mode after just a couple of fights in the division.

Where do they want it?

Phil: The champ is a steadily building potboiler of viciousness. She doesn’t hit particularly hard, but she starts off building her game from the lancing jab, gradually building up to multi-strike combinations, layering in kicks to the body. She’s a vicious clinch fighter, normally framing with the forearm to disrupt the opponent’s position and landing slapping elbows, and as Connor has mentioned in his stellar analysis of her TDD, likes to do this as she pivots off takedown defenses. If taken down, she immediately starts working to get back to her feet.

There are a few things to keep an eye on with respect to Jedrzejczyk’s style. Firstly is how willing she is to attack takedowns from her opponent- this is a good thing from the perspective of disincentivization, but also means that she is sometimes engaging when she doesn’t have to. Secondly is the way that as a kickboxer, she may likely struggle if dragged deep into grappling exchanges. For now, her first and second layer TDD have held up, but it obviously bears watching. Lastly is the fact that she’s not the best athlete in the division, or even the second. Or, come to think of it, the third, or the fourth, or the fifth… etc.

David: Everybody always talks about mechanics, power, and speed. But more than those, Joanna has a special kind of boxing trigonometry. She knows when to angle her strikes, when to straighten them, when to rake them, et cetera. Because of the dynamics within that facet of her game, she’s grown into the champion we all love and don’t hate. She doesn’t have too many weaknesses either. I agree about her athleticism, but what she lacks in super duper fast twitch muscle fibers, she makes up for in posture.

Phil: Gadelha is the classic Nova Uniao fighter. Started off as a pure grappler, and has gradually developed into a strong if slightly low-pace kickboxer, with a powerful and accurate jab, hook and cross. These improvements were marked between her fight with Jedrzejczyk and her next with Jessica Aguilar. Her “old” game is still very much present, which is bulling into the Thai clinch and/or hitting takedowns, but it’s now not the only card she can play.

That said, she’s still not 100% comfortable as a striker. She has a tendency to flail if she gets deep into exchanges, and her defense is largely predicated around being the bigger, meaner hitter than her opponents.

David: Gadelha may not be completely comfortable with her striking but she has the ability to make her opponents uncomfortable with her striking. Her boxing is real limited, but only in a nominal sense. Watching that first fight with Joanna was eye opening at the time because Gadelha truly held her own on the feet: I don’t think she won on the feet, but she was competitive enough to confuse people’s memories into thinking she should have won. Her heavy top control game will carry her far because not a lot of fighters in the division are set up to counter that (including Joanna in some respects).

Insight from Past Fights:

Phil: Whoever you scored it for, the last fight was really, really close. Really dirty as well, on both sides, and there’s something oddly pleasing about a mutually vicious foul-fest like that. Headbutts, eye-pokes, punching after the bell, you name it, they did it. I’m interested to see if anyone gets a point taken this time over 5 rounds.

David: I’ve already said my peace on their first fight. It was a good, competitive fight, in which one fighter only narrowly had the best moments while the other was only slightly more consistent. As much as I lament eye pokes, there was a welcome vulgarity to their first bout. Yea it was highly technical, but a highly technical bout between two Mean Girls.

X-Factors?

Phil: Who kicks first? Gadelha is still largely a boxer, but I think her team must have been stressing that she can’t just give up the kicking game to Jedrzejczyk. For her part, the champion has been kicking more and more in her fights, but she has to balance that against the threat of the takedown.

David: The Mean Girl index. Eye pokes, your mom jokes, maybe even an airbag hidden in Joanna’s gloves? You can never be too sure with these two.

Prognostication

Phil: After their first fight, the champion has become much better at defending takedowns, and Gadelha has become a much better striker, so they’ve both closed up their primary weaknesses. More than specific technical improvements, though, I think that as these two both progress, the fact that Gadelha is simply bigger, faster and more powerful will start to impact the way they match up. Razor close fight, but Claudia Gadelha by unanimous decision.

David: Joanna shored up a weakness to eliminate a flaw. Claudia shored up a weakness to introduce an asset. That’s too black and white for a prognostication, but Joanna getting better takedown defense is less critical than Claudia improving her boxing. Claudia was already competitive to begin with. I believe this is the second time we’ve picked against Joanna, so clearly we’re more skeptical of her title reign than others. I just think Gadelha is the real deal. Claudia Gadelha by Decision.