Mark Hunt vs. Curtis Blaydes co-headlines UFC 221 this February 11, 2018 (February 10th in North America) at the Perth Arena in Perth, Australia.

One sentence summary:

David: Slobbering knockers in the Outback.

Phil: Some motherf—kers always trying to ice-skate uphill… just, like, not necessarily in Australia…?

Stats:

Record: Mark Hunt 13-11-1 Draw 1 NC | Curtis Blaydes 8-1-1 NC

Odds: Mark Hunt +145 | Curtis Blaydes -155

History / Introduction to Both Fighters

David: It’s hard to remember Mark Hunt—the fighter—over the man at this point. His honesty has denied him an honest wage from dishonest people, and part of that honesty is tied to the sport’s head trauma ghosts. As fans, we don’t like talking about it because it’s a little like feeding the cow that ends up in your dinner plate. For Hunt, there’s still enough of his bloody roots inside the cage to hold our attention. Given where he started—contract hyperspace—all of this feels appropriate, however unfortunate.

Phil: It hasn’t been a great few months for Mark Hunt. After his win over Derrick Lewis, he was primed to come back and fight in Australia against Marcin Tybura. Unfortunately, he then had an interview with the Player’s Voice. He was characteristically… unfiltered:

”You can hear me starting to stutter and slur my words. My memory is not that good anymore. I’ll forget something I did yesterday but I can remember the shit I did years and years ago. That’s just the price I’ve paid – the price of being a fighter.”

Whether the UFC reacted in the way that they did due to legitimate concern for his well-being, or because they feared being sued into oblivion at some point in the future is up for debate (I mean, sort of), but they promptly pulled him from the fight, and subjected him to a battery of tests. C’mon Mark, remember Big Nog! Virtually unable to move, blind in one eye, he went out there and got brutally destroyed… but he kept his ailments a public secret rather than public knowledge. Keep that narrative of immortal warriors out to climb to the top of the heap going, not this sad story of disintegrating old men. Not cool, man!

David: I’m still not really sure what to make of Blaydes other than the abundance of vampires-slaughtered-at-raves images his name conjures up. He’s a solid fighter who has basically won all of his fights against modest competition (plus the Ngannou bout). Still, good performances at heavyweight are the equivalent of cryptocurrency—no matter how temporary, the value is pristine, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be a victim of Skynet eventually. So Blaydes can look good against Hunt, and we’ll still know basically nothing about his prospects other than that he’s a good prospect.

Phil: Curtis Blaydes looks kind of like one of those prospects that comes along every now and again who never ends up being as good as you think they’re going to be. You know the sort. Obviously athletic, hard-working and coachable, they’ll come with a new arsenal of laboriously learned strikes for every fight, like one of those well-meaning kids who came to school with pages upon pages of neatly scribed and completely boring notes on World War II. You find yourself being impressed by the sheer diligence while stifling a sigh. Am I being too harsh? He’s pretty early in his development, looked improved in his last fight, and has a great base to work from. The thing is, so did Phil Davis and Jared Rosholt…?

What’s at stake?

David: Hunt’s Dredd-like long walk into the desert. Either it’ll be dignified Max von Sydow level stuff where he walks into the sunset armed with a lumbering shotgun and a nice sci-fi duster to face robo-cannibals (why does everyone hate the Stallone version? Take away Schneider, and it’s still Stallone and Diane Lane against ABC robots and Armand Assante’s baked ham)—or it’ll be Vince Vaughn’s slow, inarticulate one from the bad True Detective season.

Phil: The other major heavyweight prospects are coming off losses at the moment, and grinding, ugly losses at that. I guess if Blaydes loses to Hunt at least it (maybe) won’t be grinding? On the other hand, if Hunt loses, it primes him to leave his UFC contract on something of a sad note.

Where do they want it?

Phil: We’ve previewed Mark Hunt a ton, and there isn’t much to add. Several varieties of left hook, a rear hand uppercut, and an overhand. After years of ballooning up and down in weight, and taking tons of damage in his fights, it’s hard to argue that he’s not showing it at the age of 43. His durability is down, and his speed is declining. There’s still a lot of craft and a lot of power there. Hunt has always had a pretty underrated gas tank, in that while he gets tired he rarely does so while fighting his kind of fight. There’s still room for concern.

David: As with all, physically tough fighters—the physical toughness is now clocked with an egg timer. He can still take a shot, but he can’t recover so easily, and even when he is able to recover, a lot of his general attack patterns are suddenly stifled. He’s not that great inside the cage anymore, but in a bar—around anyone, MMA fighters or not—he’d be that anime character with secret powers everyone respects, and therefore don’t f–k with. We’ll call it a career for Mark, and then ask him to come back once aliens invade so he can smack one and say “walcome to Urth!”

Phil: Blaydes has an enormous head, and thus despite how critical I might have been above, I do enjoy watching him fight. Head hugeness is an important criteria for entertainment. Beyond this, he is, as mentioned, something of the archetype of the talented wrestler trying to find his way in the UFC. His blast double is something to behold, but he’s also a capable trip and body lock takedown threat. Where he has struggled is linking his striking and grappling phases together. He’s become more capable on the feet, improving his jab and combinations, but there’s rarely much of a phase shift there. Instead, he’s either kickboxing or he’s shooting telegraphed shot after shot. This could get him in trouble against Hunt’s rear hand uppercut… but Hunt has traditionally not been fantastic at actively discouraging TDs.

David: I’m still not sure what we’re talking about here. We talking Modok-huge or Ken Griffey Jr.-from-the-Simpsons huge? Perhaps it’s been too long since I’ve seen Blaydes fight, but I only remember his cranium being stout; not overflowing like a The Thing formation. Blaydes is well-rounded for a heavyweight; which generally means he has power, and can push things. But beneath the superficial types is an actively skilled fighter who can never quite blend the arts, but can certainly execute them. Like many fighters with short records, he finds his bearings the old fashioned way—being a specialist when he wants to, and rejecting his specialist roots when he’s not sure.

Insight from past fights?

David: Hunt has the ability to stop a takedown, and countergrapple when called upon. He’s not the same guy who was submitted in his first four losses (granted, they were all serious competition). But he’s also not the same guy who seemed to learn some tricks against Fedor, and then applied those tricks defensively in the Struve bout (when most of us that Hunt would surely be submitted if the fight went to the ground).

Phil: Gotta be the Miocic fight. Blaydes’ double leg is clearly his favoured shot, and one which plays well to his ability to generate drive, but if there’s one thing which Hunt has struggled with it’s been single leg takedowns, something which Miocic abused to horrific effect. It’s tough to get down on the Samoan’s hips, but lifting his leg up and tipping him over has worked much, much better. He can’t really hit the traditional defense of putting his instep on the outside of the opponent’s thigh and pushing off, because his legs are so short.

X-Factors

Phil: Mark Hunt old, Blaydes jet lag, blah blah.

David: Have you not seen the new mythical MMA creatures tournament?!

Prognostication

David: Last week we didn’t give one legend much of a chance, and this week is no different. Hunt has a puncher’s chance but I think Blaydes’ sheer volume of frontal lobe can withstand the early damage where he can get some takedowns, and some fans. Curtis Blaydes by Decision.

Phil: Hunt is more experienced and just a far more natural fighter than Blaydes, whose entire approach screams “determined but rote.” That being said, I struggle to think of who the best offensive wrestler that Hunt has actually beaten is over the course of his career. Bigfoot Silva, sort of? Big Country? Blaydes may be reduced to just shooting takedowns over and over against Hunt, but at his advanced age I tend to think that might actually be enough. Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision.