UFC 222 – Frankie Edgar vs. Brian Ortega Toe-to-Toe Preview

Stats

Record: Frankie Edgar 22-5-1 Draw Brian Ortega 13-0-1 NC

Odds: Frankie Edgar -175 Brian Ortega +155

History / Introduction to the fighters

David: I’ll never forget Frankie Edgar vs. Tyson Griffin. Edgar’s debut pitted two then-excellent lightweights against one another in a fight of the year candidate that displayed Edgar’s skillsand toughness (enduring a pretty locked in kneebar from Griffin). Griffin’s career was sidelined due to nerve damage, but not Edgar. He’s still a fireplug of crisp boxing outbursts, and movement. He doesn’t fit the profile of a fight behemoth, but his skills represent one. It’s weird to feel like Edgar’s the prospect ready to fight for the title, but he kind of is. He’ll just have to fight yet another uber-talented prospect to get there.

Phil: Frankie Edgar is like a fine wine that gets better with age. That’s not necessarily something you would have expected from his earlier career. Even back in the lightweight division of the late ‘00s, he was an undersized lightweight who absorbed a lot of damage. As bigger fighters like Benson Henderson and Gray Maynard filtered into the division he took more punishment. Going down to featherweight would mean his size disadvantage would be lessened, but that his speed advantage would be gone. Instead, we had a reinvention. A sturdier incarnation, who picked his spots, hit harder and pancaked his opponents from top position. Perhaps he was fortunate to get three consecutive title shots against Henderson and Aldo once upon a time, but it’s hard not to feel bad for him getting sidelined for his shot against Holloway. How much longer do we have before the wine turns to vinegar?

David: Ortega shares some similarities to Edgar; a prospect with a ton of skills who people tend to understate. Unlike Edgar, finishing is not Ortega’s problem, but thus far he’s been a can’t miss action fighter who is finally capable of waking up before round three. That’s good news, because against Edgar, he’s gonna need to be firing on all cylinders from the get-go.

Phil: Brian Ortega is one of the most head-scratching fighters in the UFC. I still don’t think the man has won an actual round without finishing the fight, yet he’s currently at 6 wins (one of which was overturned due to a PED failure). It’s not like his development has been static, either. He’s shown significant development almost every time out, but still ends up with a weird fight where he loses two rounds and finishes in the third. In general he feels like a throwback to a different time: a soft-spoken, respectful finish-first submission threat with a relaxed attitude to performance enhancement.

What’s at stake?

David: All the marbles that don’t include a title shot. What sucks is that the only thing that could derail either one is the Conor factor, and I actively don’t care. McGregor’s a great talent, but he’d sooner work his way up, so even if that became a thing, I’d rather watch a fight I know has divisional staying power like the winner of Edgar/Ortega vs. Holloway.

Phil: The winner is definitely next in line against Holloway, unless all that Max-Conor trash talk actually comes to something. This is likely Edgar’s last chance, seeing as the division looks to be increasingly loaded with young, dynamic talent, but who knows? No-one has distinguished themselves that much, as the layer just below these guys basically consists of Elkins and Stephens at the moment.

Where do they want it?

David: Edgar wants it wherever, whenever. He’s a fight floozy. With his in-and-out boxing, he’s able to dictate distance in a roundabout way. From day one I was impressed by his boxing and his boxing coach; his strikes are not confined by his mechanics, or his approach. He’s able to let his movement take the lead, and his movement—while not perfect—is flexible enough to keep his offense constantly moving forward even if his body is moving backward. His straight right is still his best punch. It’s just too damn fast. On the ground he’s become increasingly violent—letting his wrestling skills substitute for submissions, making the most out of skilled positioning with heavy strikes on top and general urgency to keep opponents rattled, pressured, and out of judges’ points.

Phil: Frankie Edgar no longer has the obligatory “get knocked down in the first, bounce back to his feet” part of his fights, but I have to say that I enjoy his bouts even more nowadays. His boxing is tighter and more efficient than it ever was back at lightweight, although there are a number of setups he’s carried with him, like his little darting guessing game between body shot, soft right, committed right, leg kick, left hook or knee tap. He combines being exceptionally well trained with being very adaptable: he pulls his hand back after he throws, moves his head after shots, and always keeps his head on the right side when he shoots. I think that in many ways he’s often been more of a natural offensive fighter than a defensive one, however: those learned defensive tricks can sometimes get a little rote, as he moves his head into intercepting shots.

Offensively he’s a never-ending flowchart, playing off that step-in. It’s notable that he’s never really had a great jab, and so he can occasionally struggle to have a safe building strike to get inside. Once he is, though, he’s still one of the very best all-around offensive grapplers around. Knee tap, double leg, single leg, and will happily hit the odd outside trip or just bail and boot his opponent. Sometimes he doesn’t commit, but when he does he will reshoot, turn, shift grips and reshoot relentlessly. On top he is crushing, keeping tight to his opponents chest and raining in shots. He’s perfectly happy dismantling butterflies or offensive guards.

David: Ortega has committed himself to heavy offense—a mindset that was explicit in theRenato Moicano fight when he appeared content to get banged, and bang right back (bro!) in a hadron collider of pugilism. Even though his punch mechanics aren’t elite, he has a strong sense of timing; in some ways aided by the fact that he’s so comfortable on the ground, his toughness on the feet allows him to treat each exchange like an adventure rather than a life-or-death cage struggle. That makes him defensively suspect, but that doesn’t matter when you have Ortega’s elite durability. The Swanson fight was a case study in what guillotine-efficient fighters should do more of; hunt on the feet, as opposed to using it as a strictly defensive weapon against takedowns.

Phil: Ortega is a wonderful offense-first fighter, and I’ve enjoyed his development immensely despite the fact that his fights always seem to follow a similar narrative. Essentially I feel like it’s more that his development curve matches his improving competition rather than him just having a game which seems to work while never really getting much better (like, say, Pedro Munhoz).

He’s a tall fighter who actually has a strong, educated jab which he uses to build his offensand never abandons. His defensive habits are a little concerning, as he tends to overuse stepping back and hiding behind his jabbing shoulder, or defaulting to the high guard and just running backwards, but he’s not a defensive fighter anyway. He’s more than happy to just lean on his excellent chin and trade volume. Like Edgar, he’s one of the few fighters who really commits to body work, and once he has his range and starts throwing combinations, his offensive boxing is really rather fun to watch. It feels like that jab is not only his primary attritional tool, but something which he want to use to force head movement from his opponent, because so much of the rest of his game is built around attacking the head. Flying knees, step knees, and of course that snap-down game. Despite his nickname being T-City, it’s the guillotine and head control which has really made Ortega the threat that he is. He converted a seatbelt into an arm-in guillotine on Swanson (that Swanson survived) but you could see the look in Swanson’s eyes afterwards. A “what the fuck was that?!” look. He didn’t survive the next one.

Insight from Past Fights

David: I think the Moicano fight is notable for the fact that Ortega isn’t as urgent as he needs to be when it comes to getting the fight on the ground. Ortega wasn’t even winning every exchange, and there were instances where it felt like Moicano could net the overall advantage if he didn’t hit that last minute takedown (not a dumb decision; Ortega punished him to the body and set that up). Even though I think Ortega has the ability to submit Edgar, a round being pressured from Edgar’s top control isn’t garden variety wrestle-spooning. Edgar is excellent defensively, and shuffles around quick enough to keep from being prone.

Phil: Gotta be Edgar-Oliveira. A tall, rangy, hyper-aggressive submission machine with an active jab and tons of offense? Oliveira is far less durable than Ortega, but there are definitely some notables to take away. First is that Edgar was able to control Oliveira better than almost anyone has in “normal” guard grappling situations. He was able to toss Oliveira’s hips back down the minute he tried to shift for a triangle or armbar, or bail if Oliveira looked like he was close to a sweep or better position. There was one small moment where Edgar was being pressured, and hit a picture-perfect counter double leg into what should have been side control… but Oliveira shifted his hips at the last minute and converted it into a guillotine. It was the end of the round, so nothing happened, but it’s notable that Edgar still has that deep down reflex which says “takedown: safety zone”

X-Factors

David: Nothing significant. While Holloway is a different fighter than Ortega, they share a few striking affectations that Edgar is used to; namely, being the shorter fighter and adjusting his boxing accordingly.

Phil: Meh. Edgar having to reconfigure himself to fight a dangerous (and utterly different) contender rather than Holloway? There isn’t much.

Prognostication

David: I would consider Ortega’s chances if he were quicker moving forward, but the movement gap is significant enough to envision Edgar diligently dictating the pace on the feet, and forcing Ortega into unfamiliar angles. Unlike Moicano, Edgar won’t be fishing for takedowns after being punished with bodywork. Ortega’s powerful enough to catch his opponent though. Edgar’s not ‘chinnie’ but he’s certainly not young enough to perform comeback magic like he did against Gray. Nonetheless: Frankie Edgar by Decision.

Phil: Edgar’s tendency to dip his head may get him into trouble against Ortega’s stepping knees or snap down. However, I think Ortega’s defensive lapses are likely to cost him more. One of Edgar’s main improvements is throwing multiple strike combinations as soon as he evades something- I think he specifically learned it as a counter to Aldo’s jab (which unfortunately for him, Aldo immediately and largely removed from his arsenal in their second fight). If he punishes Ortega for jabbing and forces him backwards, Ortega is just not a good defensive fighter. I’ll be shocked if Edgar can finish him, and I think it’ll be a tough, somewhat ragged fight, but Edgar’s body work, pace, better defense and cast-iron top game should be the difference-maker in a fight which is by a long, long way the best one on this card. Frankie Edgar by unanimous decision.