UFC Fight Night 92: Rodriguez vs Caceres main card preview

By Dayne Fox @dafoxdude

This is where I try to come up with a clever paragraph to try to summarize the fights that I’m previewing. I haven’t been able to find anything honest to say that makes me feel as though I can add anything that will hype up these contests… at least not without being cliché.

There is nothing sexy about these fights. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t entertainment value. Chris Camozzi is a try-hard who usually puts on a good show. Santiago Ponzinibbio is an under the radar action fighter. Joseph Gigliotti is an unheralded prospect. Maryna Moroz doesn’t care much for defense. On the whole I think these fights are more likely to be worth watching. Considering I’m supposed to be making predictions, that’s one that I’m comfortable making.

The main card starts on FS1 at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT.

Thales Leites (25-6) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-10), Middleweight

Was it really a year ago that Leites was fighting the now middleweight champion Michael Bisping in a split-decision main event loss? Now he’s fighting Chris Camozzi. Wow… quite the fall.

It doesn’t seem to matter what Leites does, he’s always going to have a bum rap from his disastrous title challenge against Anderson Silva in 2009. If people are willing to get past that and realize he has a more than respectable 10-5 record in the UFC, the Brazilian might actually get a fair shake. As it is, he failed in his recent attempts to climb the middleweight rankings and is back to serving as a gatekeeper.

Camozzi is like an itch that won’t go away no matter how hard you scratch it. He’s already been cut by the UFC twice only to be brought back thanks to his willingness to fight anyone on short notice. That also explains his two lopsided losses to Jacare Souza. Though it’s even more clear for Camozzi than it is for Leites that he isn’t among the divisional elite, he is riding a three-fight win streak into the contest with Leites.

Camozzi has proven to be exceptionally durable throughout his career, never once being finished by strikes. That durability plays a huge part of his success as he isn’t an athletic specimen and tends to eat a lot of punishment as he doesn’t have the quicks to get out of the way as efficiently as most. Nonetheless, he usually dishes out more than he receives as he throws out a jab followed by punching combinations with regularity. There are few who throw more leg kicks than Camozzi and he has shown an improved clinch game too. Unfortunately, he isn’t much of a KO threat due to his lack of power.

What allows Camozzi to get execute this is his never-ending cardio. Seeing as how Leites has a tendency to fade, expect Camozzi to push an early pace. Leites is a bit more selective with his strikes, throwing short punching combinations complemented by stinging leg kicks. He’s developed some pop in his fists thanks to improved technique since returning to the UFC, making him a legit threat to put his opponent out cold. Often times his punches simply cover his takedown entries which is where he is strongest.

Expect Leites to make a lot of attempts to get the fight to the ground as Camozzi has shown a weakness to experienced submission specialists, which is exactly what Leites is. Skilled at finding the back and a dangerous choke artist from the top, Leites is probably only behind Jacare in terms of pure BJJ abilities in the division. His wrestling still needs improvement, but he has typically been more dogged in chaining his attempts together to get the fight to the ground. Camozzi isn’t bad a defending takedowns, though it would hardly be considered to be one of his strengths. He’ll need it to hold up to hope to win.

Leites certainly deserves to be the favorite as he is the better athlete with higher quality wins on his resume. However, Camozzi has shown improvement over his last few bouts while Leites seemed to have his confidence shattered in his last appearance against Gegard Mousasi. I can see Camozzi coasting to a decision win based on sheer volume, but I expect Leites to either make it a coin flip with his ground work or score a submission before the 15-minute time limit. I’m leaning towards the latter. Leites via submission in RD2

Santiago Ponzinibbio (22-3) vs. Zak Cummings (19-4), Welterweight

Both Ponzinibbio and Cummings are looking for an opportunity to fight a ranked opponent. The winner here stands a good chance of having that wish granted.

Ponzinibbio has been on an absolute tear as of late, finishing his last two opponents when they had never been finished in their careers. Those performances have made him a dark horse of sorts in the division as the 29-year old should be entering his prime at this juncture as he has steadily improved upon his inception into the UFC.

Cummings has been viewed as a wet blanket by many over the course of his career, which is a bit unfair as he has finished his opponent in nearly three-fourths of his victories. Alas, that is what happens when you rely heavily on your wrestling. He’s shown a greater willingness to stand and trade recently, a development that has contributed to him being more watchable in the eyes of fans and the brass.

The reason Cummings has been more apt to trade punches is his recent development in timing his counters much better. He isn’t a very good athlete, so his margin for error is slimmer than others. However, he does have a lot of power in his punches which allows him to put a serious hurt on his opponent once he does get into a rhythm. He stays right up in the opposition’s face, daring them to swing at him. The only reason this works is Cummings is extremely durable as his lack of speed ensures that he’ll eat his share of punishment in return.

That’s music to the ears of Ponzinibbio. A pressure fighter himself, Ponzinibbio is extremely offensive and lays the offense on thick, especially early in the fight. He packs a hell of a wallop too, being the first man to stop Court McGee in April as he poured on the punishment. His punches are technically sound and fluid while his kicks can rip an opponent’s legs to shreds. Considering Ponzinibbio throws everything with maximum power, he tends to gas out before too long. Fighting in the high altitude of Salt Lake City won’t do him any favors.

Even though Cummings hasn’t been using his wrestling like he used to, there is no reason to believe his abilities have eroded. He gets most of his takedowns out of the clinch and is very top heavy once he gets a dominant position with a highly underrated submission game. Ponzinibbio has been prone to hitting the mat against similarly skilled takedown artists, but has also done a solid job of climbing back to his feet in a timely manner.

This is pretty much a coin flip in my eyes. Cummings’ wrestling advantage is so pronounced that he could easily grind out the Argentinian if he chose to do so, especially given Ponzinibbio’s tendency to fade late in fights. Then again, Cummings is glacially slow at welterweight and I could see Ponzinibbio’s onslaught forcing him to wilt under the sheer volume or simply allowing him to pull ahead of the scorecards in the first two rounds. I’ll lean towards the latter, but not with confidence. Ponzinibbio via TKO of RD2

Trevor Smith (13-6) vs. Joseph Gigliotti (7-0), Middleweight

Is there a more middleweight middleweight than Trevor Smith? He welcomes inexperienced yet promising prospect Gigliotti to the big show.

Smith’s entire UFC tenure has been a steady win-loss-win-loss pattern with him currently coming off of a win. Does that guarantee a loss? Considering Ross Pearson’s similar pattern was recently broken, I’m going to venture a no, especially considering Smith turned in easily his best performance of his career against Dan Miller last time out. It sounds a bit weird to say it, but I think we’re seeing the best version of Smith as he is firmly in his mid-30’s.

Gigliotti has yet to hear the final bell in his career, finishing every one of his fights thus far. He’s blown through every test placed in front of his thus far and he hasn’t just been facing cans. However, he is a bit undersized for a middleweight at 5’11” with about a 69″ reach. Whether or not he moves down to welterweight will likely be determined by how well he fares in the near future, starting with this contest.

Smith entered the UFC with a reputation as a submission expert as he had a stretch of nine victories with every one of them coming by forcing his opponents to tap. The submissions have disappeared now that he is fighting at the highest level, as have the takedowns as opponents have usually had a sizeable athletic advantage. He has been able to use his wrestling ability to keep himself upright. If he does get the fight to the ground, he’s notorious for his guillotine… though I suppose he isn’t too bad at grabbing that from a standing position either.

Gigliotti is a pretty sound wrestler himself with a powerful shot and sound trips from the clinch. He works quickly to pass guard in an effort to find the submission. He is prone to giving up position due to his aggression, but his knack for cinching in chokes in transition is a skill Smith will need to be wary of.

By far the most concerning aspect of the fight is Smith’s chin. He’s been KO’d in less than a minute in each of his last two losses. He has shown improved striking and distance management to help keep his chin from being touched, his jab being the most prominent improvement that he has made. He also operates a lot out of the clinch where his opponent can’t generate a lot of power. Gigliotti has the power to put Smith to sleep, even from close distances. He isn’t the most technical striker and doesn’t have much depth in his striking beyond his power strikes, though he often makes up for that with his plus athleticism.

Gigliotti reminds me more of the guys Smith has been losing to as opposed to the guys he’s beating. Miller and Tor Troeng don’t have much power in their fists. Gigliotti does. He may not be quite as explosive as Caio Magalhaes, but he’s explosive enough that I think he’ll be able to finish off Smith. However, if Smith can keep Gigliotti from touching his chin, the veteran should walk out the victor. Gigliotti via KO of RD1

Maryna Moroz (7-1) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-1), Women’s Strawweight

Originally expected to face Justine Kish, Moroz instead welcomes newcomer Taylor to the UFC on short notice thanks to an injury suffered by Kish.

Moroz burst onto the scene with an upset over heavily favored Joanne Calderwood in the spring of 2015. She followed that up with a loss to Valerie Letourneau and a win over Cristina Stanciu, indicating that while her win over Calderwood wasn’t exactly a fluke, she isn’t quite a contender either… at least not yet. The Ukrainian turns 25 next month and is less than three years into her professional career. Her best days should only be ahead of her.

Taylor has been fighting for an even shorter amount of time professionally with her debut coming in March of 2014. Nonetheless, she has a number of amateur bouts under her belt as well and even has the experience of going 25 minutes in a fight. The King of the Cage vet also avenged her only career loss to Jamie Colleen in her last appearance this past March.

The first thing you will notice about Taylor is her absolute lack of size. At 5’0″ with a 58″ reach, Taylor would probably be best fighting at atomweight. Even being short, she maintains a low stance as she looks to stalk her opponent. Packing a lot of power in her punch, she’ll burst forward with sudden attacks, either retreating if she senses her opponent attacking in return or swarming if she has hurt them. Combinations and kicks don’t seem to be a big part of her attack.

Moroz will look to exploit her size advantage, standing a good 7″ taller in addition to a 9″ reach advantage. She has a stiff jab to keep Taylor at range and offers simple boxing combinations to the head and body with effective use of feints to get her opponent to react accordingly. She has taken a much more measured approach since her loss to Letourneau, taking a more economical approach. Her head movement needs a lot of work, but that may not matter as much with the undersized Taylor. Regardless, her lack of overall defense is by far her biggest negative.

Taylor is likely to try to wrest Moroz to the ground as Moroz has shown poor takedown defense. Part of that is by choice as Moroz has a very aggressive submission game, including a dangerous guard which she demonstrated when she caught Calderwood in an armbar from there. Despite that, it may be worth trying to grind out a victory for Taylor as her short stature usually allows her to get good leverage underneath her opponents for the takedown. She’s shown some submission ability herself, but is more inclined to pound things out.

If the UFC had an atomweight division, Taylor would be one of the first fighters I’d sign for that weight class. At strawweight I fear that she is too small to have any sustained success against the best in the world. She does have the power to allow her pull out a flash KO. The problem is that Moroz is a skilled enough counter striker that she should catch Taylor almost every time she comes in range for the power shot. Moroz via decision