UFC on FOX 29: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Toe-to-Toe Preview – A complete breakdown

Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje headlines UFC on FOX 29 this April 14, 2018 at the Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.

One sentence summary

David: Hold on to your butts…

Phil: To step back is to die, as Poirier and Gaethje scrap for Eddie Alvarez’s vacant violenceweight belt.

Stats

Record: Dustin Poirier 22-5-1 NC | Justin Gaethje 18-1

Odds: Dustin Poirier -120 | Justin Gaethje +110

History / Introduction to both fighters

David:Poirier’s body language and fight demeanor suggested he would be an action fighter and nothing more. His resume even attests to this; along with some great wins are some pretty harsh losses. And yet there’s a swagger in the way he cracks skulls and torques limbs suggesting that being on the cusp of being elite was a sign of being elite. Is he? I’ve always been on the fence; the losses to the Korean Zombie and Johnson felt telling. Gaethje’s another zombie he’ll need to surpass if he wants to one day contend.

Phil: Dustin Poirier has had his setbacks in the UFC. That loss to the Korean Zombie where he broke down in tears afterwards. The loss to McGregor. Getting knocked out by Michael Johnson, who represented a rival Florida gym. They all had to sting, and yet here he is, once again putting together a streak of performances with a consistency which could be described as “workmanlike” if it wasn’t quite so incredibly violent. The Louisianan has been chasing that Eddie Alvarez rematch, but you get the impression that he’ll just take on whoever he needs to. He gets a bit better every time, while never losing that violent swagger. I like watching him a lot.

David: I feel like we never give Gaethje credit. He reminds me a lot of Thomas Almeida; a lot of valid hype, but at what point is the complete lack of defense counterbalancing their sublimely violent offense? I get it. It’s no longer virtuous to be “well-rounded”. You want to tilt the balance completely. But when your defense is to eat punches first, and throw later, tilting the balance doesn’t even factor into the outcome because the bout is as mathematically certain as Schrodinger’s Affliction tat.

Phil: When Justin Gaethje first came to the UFC some (including me) were skeptical about his chances at the upper level, and in some ways that’s still an open question. He won his debut, but some of the shine on beating Michael Johnson has faded a little since then. One thing that is absolutely without question is how ridiculously entertaining he is. Both his fights in the UFC made it onto the UFC’s “best fights ever”, and even considering how dripping with recency bias that list was (Diaz-Conor 2 best fight ever? I love that fight and will even go to bat for it over Condit-Lawler, but best ever? Get outta here) that is a hell of an achievement.

What’s at stake?

David: Because both are young, potential contenders, a lot of what’s at stake is how a loss affects their climb back into contention.

Phil: It feels like there’s a bit more of a buzz around the UFC at the moment, thanks in part to Conor’s moronic antics and Khabib’s rise to prominence, but also just because good, relevant fights are getting booked. It feels like a good time to make a name, and while it seems unlikely that even fighters like Gaethje and Poirier could hope to crack into the Khabib-Conor-Tony triumvirate on entertainment value alone, they could certainly position themself as a more than acceptable replacement when (if?) one of them gets injured or goes to jail or whatever.

Where do they want it?

David: Poirier used to be good at offense the CB Dolloway way—as in, all offense, in a variety of ways, and lacking in defense in a variety of ways. But unlike Dolloway, Poirier was much more dangerous, and has since grown in that department. His straight left is still one of the more dangerous punches in the division, and all of that percussion is supported by swift kicks to the legs, midsection, and up high, yet retains some chainlink violence when he’s smelling blood. His arsenal of chokes is nothing to scoff at either. His defense is still an issue (I’d argue), but he’s since tightened his defense by tightening his movement on the feet. Now he’s no longer in a predictable position to be countered, or caught during an exchange. For now, that has made all the difference.

Phil: Both fighters work best (in fact pretty much only work at all) moving forwards and inflicting pressure. That in and of itself makes this a fascinating matchup, because it feels like the fighter who blinks first will be the one who gets into issues. Poirier is the technical side of the matchup. His defense used to be just covering up with a double forearm guard, but he’s developed some better head movement as he steps into the pocket behind a cannon of a left hand. Once inside there, he rips short combinations to the head and body, and attacks both the single collar and clinch takedowns, as well as snapping down into his trademark D’Arce. Like a lot of southpaws, he also has a powerful body kick to complement the left straight. As well as his general defense, his craftiness has increased in recent years. He throws the jab and works kicks into his combinations, and generally does a better job of just not flinging full-power offense at the opponent until they fall over.

David: For as much the royal we talk about Gaethje’s go for broke style, a lot of his work is highly technical. For example, the way he chambers his strikes in short bursts in proximity is a legit sight to behold. That short six right hook from his southpaw stance is money, and he loves to run up the middle to close distance which is a good way of making sure his target doesn’t have easy counters (nor can they evade as easily). Because Gaethje is not a stereotypical headhunter, he’s much more efficient at landing offense instead of simply threatening with offense. It’s like fighting someone in a space shuttle built for ewoks; you can move, but you’ll always have someone next to you. Gaethje’s folk style wrestling helps keep away obvious solutions, not the least of which is that Gaethje himself is a better wrestler than most of his opponents. What separates Gaethje from a stereotype is that his offense is a means to an end on top of being an end in itself—by focusing on down the pipe pressure, and proximity power shots, it sets up the clinch organically, where his offense is even more effective; the tighter the fight becomes, the more offense Gaethje can deliver; in addition to short uppercuts, he interlinks his punches with knees, headlocks, elbows, and everything listed in the bloody sacrifice encyclopedia.

Phil: Speaking of flinging full-power offense at the opponent, we have Justin Gaethje. While Gaethje is often thought of as just a full-power attacking machine, I think it’s also illustrative to think of him as a kind of counter fighter. Namely, he responds to physical triggers. He’s one of the few high forearm guard specialists in MMA who actually uses it effectively (one of the few who doesn’t is, for example, Dustin Poirier, who just tries to protect himself as he escapes). A hit on Gaethje’s guard tells him that the opponent is out of position, so he can roll back around with his left hook, right overhand, or a leg kick. Double forearm guard with a roll into a leg kick counter is something which you see often in Thai fights, but in MMA it’s almost exclusively something which you could see in silhouette and identify as “Gaethje”. His predilections in the clinch are much like Poirier’s, although as in most comparisons, more straightforward: he likes the single collar and hockey punches, like Poirier, and transitions to the plumb clinch (where again, he’s one of the few clinch leg kickers in the sport), but he lacks any of Poirier’s snapdown or front headlock subtleties. He’s historically been excellent at defending takedowns (D1 national wrestler and all) and is happy to granby roll through takedowns, or just throw himself into a rolling thunder or whatever.

That guard still has issues, though. He can be tricked into throwing it up and rolling with feints, and at this point he is essentially blind. He has a knack for landing short hooks from the weaves, but as Alvarez proved, it’s possible to mess with his triggers with softer shots, attacking under the body, repositioning as he weaves, and using angled attacks to zip back out.

Insight from Past Fights

David: It’s funny because their bouts with Alvarez tell completely different stories. Poirier lost to Alvarez’ strategy (by not having one, basically), while Gaethje lost to Alvarez’ tactics (more kicks early might have made the difference). In both cases, Alvarez wasn’t clearly better than either of them IMO. I’d pick Poirier in a rematch with the Korean Zombie, but I think you can still pinpoint elements of that fight where Dustin struggles with his mirror; fighters who can threaten in dynamic ways like him. If Poirier finds himself in a situation where he has to retreat, and doesn’t know where the threat is coming from, it could get ugly.

Phil: On rewatch, I have to say that I remembered Gaethje doing better against Alvarez and Poirier doing worse. Gaethje hurt Alvarez’s leg late, but was otherwise on the receiving end of far more punishment, and was visibly tottering with exhaustion by the time he seriously damaged Eddie. Conversely, Poirier was beating up Alvarez relatively easily until he got sucked into a brawl. There are those that think that the fight was “over” once Eddie was coming back, and… I just don’t buy that kind of stuff. Poirier did not really look particularly hurt. Maybe he really was looking for a way out. Or maybe he just would have had a worrisome moment and come back and put it on Alvarez.

X-Factors

David: This is a fight between very dynamic fighters. I expect the dynamics to be predictable and unpredictable at once, which is another way of saying “it is what it is” I guess, but I can’t think of anything significant affecting the fight given how much variety is in their arsenal that won’t speak, punch, kick, and hurt for themselves.

Phil: As per Shaun Al-Shatti’s excellent piece on Gaethje, it sounds like he’s been working on his cardio and wrestling a lot more for this fight, and was neglecting it slightly for the Alvarez bout. It’ll also be interesting to see if he means just in a “defending takedowns” sense, or if he’s willing to mix it up offensively.

Prognostication

David: I’ve been highly critical of Gaethje as an Almeida clone (much different stylistically, but you get the point), but the pieces are in place for him to take this one. I also believe Gaethje’s much more likely to survive a Poirier onslaught whereas if Poirier is in trouble, Gaethje will take the damn thing over with reckless abandon. Dustin can obviously win, and he’s practically just as dangerous as Gaethje (perhaps even moreso if we’re talking strict power, pound for pound), but I think this will be a fight of attrition, and Poirier has a clearer breaking point than Gaethje.Justin Gaethje by TKO, round 3.

Phil: This has a lot of interesting questions to answer. Can Poirier just replicate Alvarez’s strategy? What happens if Gaethje carves his legs up like Jim Miller did? Can Dustin wrestle against Gaethje, and does his gameplan fall apart if he can’t win the fight everywhere. The thing that really stood out to me is the difference in footspeed, and if Poirier can avoid just doing the Michael Johnson thing of circling out and getting booted, I think he can win exchanges and hurt Gaethje quite badly. Whether he can ride that to victory is another issue, but I’m going to say that he can. Although I picked Gaethje in the staff picks, it’s time for my Cheater Hedge of 2018.Dustin Poirier by TKO, round 2.