Ward: Canelo vs. Golovkin outcome decided on size difference

Boxingnews24.com

By Dan Ambrose: Andre “SOG” Ward says the Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Gennady “GGG” Golovkin fight will be decided on the size difference between the two fighters. Ward’s first instinct when predicting a winner in the fight is to look at the size difference.

Golovkin is far bigger than Canelo, who looks like he still belongs in the junior middleweight division. However, Ward notes that Canelo has good boxing skills, and he’s tricky inside the ring. Ward says the fight will come down to whether Canelo can handle the punching power of Triple G, as he’s a very powerful puncher.

Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) and Canelo (49-1-1, 34 KOs) will be fighting it out in match for middleweight supremacy on September 16 on HBO pay-per-view at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. If Golovkin loses, he might choose to pack it in and retire. If GGG wins, there’s a possibility of a rematch depending on whether Canelo and his promoters at Golden Boy Promotions want to take the risk of fighting Golovkin a second time.

You have to note that Golden Boy and Canelo never fought Erislandy Lara again, and Canelo appeared to lose that fight. How he could walk away with the controversial decision win he was given by the judges is the big question. That might be one reason why Canelo recently said that he has zero interest in fighting Golovkin a second time. He says it’s going to be just one fight between them. That obviously won’t be good for Canelo’s career if he gets knocked out by Golovkin or if he loses a decision. But it’s Canelo that will make the ultimate decision with his career.

“I think it’s a good fight, I think it’s going to boil down to the size difference,” said Ward to ESPN’s First Take about the Canelo-Golovkin fight. ”You know, obviously Golovkin is a lot bigger than Canelo.- Is that going to be too much? Can he take Golovkin’s power? That’s going to be like the biggest question for me. But Canelo, he doesn’t get a lot of credit for his boxing ability,” said Ward.

Ward appears to have it backwards. It’s GGG who doesn’t get much credit for his boxing ability, not Canelo. The guy that is seen as a pure brawler is Golovkin. He’s the one that surprised a lot of the boxing world in his last fight in out-boxing WBA World middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs in beating him by a 12 round unanimous decision on March 18 on HBO pay-per-view.

Golovkin mainly used his jab through most of the rounds, beating Jacobs at his own game, and showing the world that he can do a lot more than just slug it out. Canelo can definitely box, and he’ll be trying to do that when he gets Triple G inside the ring on September 16.

I don’t think Canelo will be able to stick with boxing Gennady for long without reverting to his slugging. In fact, I see Canelo slugging most of the time much to his detriment. Canelo doesn’t have a good enough jab or outside game for him to box Golovkin. The biggest thing that will limit Canelo’s ability to box Golovkin is his short arms. Canelo doesn’t possess long arms, so he has to slug whether he wants to or not.

The other reason why Canelo will choose to punch with Golovkin is because he’s been a puncher his entire life. You couldn’t take a fighter like Artur Gatti and expect him to box for any length of time without him reverting to slugging. For one of Gatti’s fights against Mickey Ward, he did box him, but he was stull punching with him and going to war. Canelo will go back to his normal way of fighting after a round or so against Golovkin, especially if things aren’t working out by him trying to box him.

”He’s a slugger, he has an aggressive style, but he can box, he’s very crafty, he’s got a lot of fights,” said Ward about Canelo. ”And I think he’s going to show that and use that in this fight. I think it’s going to be a great fight and I think it’s going to go the distance and I think it’s going to be very, very close,” said Ward.

Canelo is going to be getting hit a lot with heavy shots from Golovkin, and he’s going to do what comes natural for him in wanting to punch back. If you look at Canelo’s recent fights against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and Liam Smith, he was hit by both of those guys, and he would already respond back by throwing left hooks, his major weapon, to try and pay them back.

Chavez Jr. was forced to take the shots because he was so weakened from having drained down from 215 pounds to make weight at 164.5 for their catch-weight. Liam Smith was giving Canelo a lot of problems with is power shots, but he faded and stopped throwing shots.

Canelo then took over the fight and got a stoppage. I don’t see the Canelo-Golovkin fight ending by a close decision. I don’t think it’s going to go the distance. Golovkin hits too hard and he’s going to be trading shots with Canelo. If Golovkin is able to trade shots, he’s going to hurt Canelo with something and turn him into knockout victim No.34.

“It’s tough to say. Even when I broadcast it’s tough to pick a winner,” said Ward in choosing not to pick the winner for the Canelo vs. Golovkin fight. ”This is boxing. You can get hit with one shot that can not only change the trajectory of a fight, but your career. So I just think that with these match-ups, it’s cool to pick a winner, but it’s also cool to say ‘I don’t know what’s going to happen’ and that’s the beauty of it.”

Ward pretty much gave away who he thinks will win the fight when he initially said that size will be the telling factor in the Canelo vs. GGG fight. To me, that suggests that Ward is leaning in the direction of Golovkin to win. If you’re saying size is the factor that decides Canelo-Golovkin, then there’s no other way to look at it but to say that Golovkin will be the one to win this fight on September 16.

Canelo is going to need to use these tactics just to survive against Golovkin:

– Move constantly

– Hold

– Stay on the outside out of punching range as much as possible

– Smother Golovkin by staying on the inside the entire fight

– Rough Golovkin up by fouling

– Play to the referee to get him to help you win.