Cowboy and Brown fight for an action bout crown this December 10, 2016 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

One sentence summary:

Phil: Liver let die.

David:

Stats:

Record: Cerrone 31-7-1 NC Brown 20-15

Odds: Cerrone -265 Brown +225

History / Introduction to both fighters

Phil: How is Donald Cerrone still an elite fighter. I don’t get it. His lifestyle would kill a normal man. He fights all the time. He’s gotten blown out of the water in title eliminators twice, and counting his WEC fights has lost one interim title fight by FOTY decision and two full title fights, both by first round stoppage. Why is he still here? How does he keep going? How does he appear not simply unaffected, but actively much better than he used to? In his WEC days he was both a slow starter and a horrible defensive wrestler. In his UFC lightweight career, he became a much better wrestler but kept the slow starting. Now, after absorbing enough punishment to kill a steer over a long and storied MMA tenure, he’s up a weight class and has apparently fixed his last remaining flaw, with no major ill effects. I don’t get it.

David: You’re describing a very sci-fi like progression of human achievement. Like something about of a bad Richard Franklin/Kelly Kawpowski film. Speaking of science, Cerrone’s presence makes it abundantly clear that some fighters are simply genetically engineered for this sport. Who needs that CRISPR shit when you’ve got Cerrone’s DNA profile? Despite avoiding a bell curve of success, you still have to wonder where this is all headed. Are we actually talking about a welterweight title shot in his near future?

Phil: Matt Brown has had a rough time of it lately. That run of violence he had which propelled him to the title eliminator put him firmly in the position of gatekeeper of the division. So, Lawler, Maia and Hendricks were all booked against him as an action bounceback fight. The obviously fading Ellenberger was tossed to The Immortal as a bit of a softer touch… and promptly kicked Brown in the guts for the TKO. Brown isn’t and never has been a particularly great athlete, but when he’s “on” he’s a unique blue-collar cuisinart of ruin, and I’d like to have seen him get a slightly softer touch at this point.

David: Brown is the serious faced proletariat version of Cerrone. Somehow that hasn’t made him less effective. For the longest time I was skeptical of Brown. I figured the guy who lost to Brian Foster, Chris Lytle, and Amir Sadollah on TUF was just fight streaking, and surely a bout against Robbie Lawler would expose him for the blue collar run of luck he was? Except that was actually a great fight. Even with the step up in competition, he’s looked every bit himself. I suspect his ‘run’ has come to an end, but this fight promises to be the glorious culmination of a life’s work.

What’s at stake?

Phil: Aside from the aforementioned risk of putting Brown on an unstoppable skid, there isn’t a whole lot. Cerrone has been on a bit of a tear, but I suspect that it takes quite a bit for the UFC to bother putting him in there for something on the path to a title fight. That’s aside from Cerrone’s participation in the MMAAA, which despite his somewhat craven “I should have talked to Dana” about-face likely hasn’t endeared him to the brass.

David: If the MMAAA were actually going anywhere, and wasn’t dissolving into some Beverley Hills 90210 drama with the quickness, maybe Dana would take his transgression more seriously. As such, I wouldn’t bank on Cerrone turning heel.

Where do they want it?

Phil: Pretty clear out-fighter vs in-fighter matchup here. We all know Cerrone… or thought we did. He stays at a distance and lashes kicks to the leg and body, and if the opponent tries to step inside he snuffs it with the step knee. His improvements are in his head movement and in his boxing, most specifically his counter left hook, as well as his ability to just get out of the gate faster. He’s still an excellent defensive wrestler and increasingly, a good offensive one as well, with a lovely counter double leg. He’s a wonderful submission grappler. His only problem remains that he can be made to look pedestrian if forced into the fence, and he’s weak to body shots, but it gets harder and harder to put him there.

David: With more experience with different coaches under his belt, Cerrone has allowed his boxing to develop as he’s gone up in weight. Perhaps a function of being able to capitalize on his quicker hands, the most dramatic difference between Cerrone the lightweight and Cerrone the welterweight is in his boxing. It was simply not a component of his game beforehand, and you can probably thank Brandon Gibson for that in addition to welterweight natural selection.

Going up in weight meant Cerrone would be more at risk against bigger wrestlers, so developing a more diverse outside attack was paramount. With more space to move and angle, he now has options he was otherwise averse to grooming (like that counter left hook you mentioned). This is a good test for just how far those improvements can take him, though.

Phil: Brown is good at mauling people against the fence. He is really good at mauling people against the fence. The only problem is getting them there. He once worked as a machinist in his Dad’s shop (hence the tattoo on his arm) and his fighting style appropriately functions as a kind of horrifying lathe. The only problem is that it needs time to spin up, and that he needs to get in close to do so.

Brown is largely a clunky, winging puncher who throws strikes which are close to Russian casting hooks, primarily to force the opponent backwards on straight lines and to get his hands on them. Once he does, he’s a nightmare of slapping elbows, knees, trips, chokes and dumps. Like Cerrone, he’s incredibly tough, but has a pronounced “off” switch in his gut.

David: This might be the first fight preview I’ll ask my dad, who is a machinist, to read. A lathe reference might just warm his Ghurkha chomping heart. As will this fight. Brown’s attack is founded upon the notion that being hit anywhere doesn’t just suck, but actively hurts. He’s all about surface area trauma over the classic pugilism egg hunt. It’s paradoxically what makes him such a proficient finisher. Though not the most accurate striker, the volume and bullying nature of his attack carries the same weight as an incision. Especially in the clinch, where you won’t find a meaner motor scooter.

Insight from past fights

Phil: In terms of in-close pressure fighters, I thought Story was a more physically capable and tougher matchup for Cerrone. He doesn’t pack the finishing potential that Brown does, but he’s historically been a much more reliable boxer and cleaner pressure fighter. Cerrone totally pantsed him. That leaves me… concerned for Brown.

David: The body attack for both men. It seems silly to ignore it. If fighters can have inferior upper body toughness (or “chin”) from one another, it seems logical that they could have inferior lower body toughness from one another. Both guys are capable of delivering gut busting violence with punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. First one to puncture smash the mashed potato sack wins.

X-Factors:

Phil: Was Cerrone too attached to his fake BMF neck tattoo? Will his confidence be hurt by people not being adequately informed that he is, indeed, a Bad Mother Fucker?

I am interested by one small tactical factor- Brown’s guillotine. He snatched one up on Tim Means when the Dirty Bird got careless. If he can get any pressure going on Cerrone, and Cowboy goes for the takedown to back him off, he could conceivably put him in trouble or take him out (as Bendo did against Cowboy in their second fight).

David: Grappling is definitely the x-factor here, I agree. Both guys are tricky on the ground, willing to sacrifice position for the choke or submission. However, both can also be defensively ‘got’. Plus Brown thinks Cerrone is a “douchey kind of guy”.

Prognostication

Phil: This seems like a rough style matchup for Brown. He’s a more vulnerable outside striker than anyone Cerrone has fought for years, and the way he closes just doesn’t seem fast or dangerous enough to get past Cerrone’s defensive layers of the left hook, the step knee and the reactive takedown. Donald Cerrone by TKO, round 1

David: Brown is the first guy to blink on the grappling front IMO given how accurate Cerrone is from the outside. From his back, Cerrone is more dangerous than Brown is in top control, especially if it’s in desperation. I do think that Brown’s pressure could have a Nate Diaz-ian effect, making it difficult for Cerrone, but Brown isn’t half as durable. Donald Cerrone by TKO, round 2.