Dominick Cruz and Cody Garbrandt finally settle their scores without the cushion of verbal warfare this December 30, 2016 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

One Sentence Summary

David: Garbrandt tries to resurrect his verbal corpse from Cruz’ trash talking necromancy with fists instead of ill-advised words.

Phil: Garbrandt enters the biggest fight of his life secure in the knowledge that he can’t possibly do any worse in the fight than he did in the trash talking

Stats

Record: Dominick Cruz 22-1 Cody Garbrandt 10-0

Odds: Dominick Cruz -110 Cody Garbrandt +190

History / Introduction to the fighters

David: If there’s any reason why Cruz might not cast a larger shadow over the UFC than he does, it’s because he was gone for three full years. And yet he hasn’t lost a fight in what will be going on nine years. I don’t know about labeling him best pound for pound, and or whatever arbitrary crown Dana likes to use to promote lower profile fighters, but I do know that he belongs in the category of the truly elite. Better yet, as his fighting has developed, so has his fight jive. But we’ll get to that in the x-factor section.

Phil: Multiple major knee surgeries on a fighter more dependent on quick, darting, damaging movements than any in the sport? No-one expected that Cruz could really come back as the same fighter, and he didn’t. He’s even better, with just a smidge more hard offense in and out of the pocket, and his time as a pundit brought out his prickly analytical snark into something more honed and camera-ready.

David: Garbrandt is a neophyte in the world of mixed martial arts. Making his debut in 2012, Cody has been pasting opponents left and right with lefts and rights. I recall picking Almeida over him, despite explicitly acknowledging Almeida’s wonky defense in the Pickett fight and beyond. Yet Garbrandt made it looks easy. Almost too easy. He’s been set up as an underdog thanks to his youth, frat boy demeanor, and complete servitude in face of Cruz’ gab. But he’s got a brainbiter for a right hand, and a left hook that can put you through the warp spasm. Underestimate him at your own peril, Dom.

Phil: Garbrandt is a real mystery. Is he a Kyoji Horiguchi, thrown in too fast with one of the greatest fighters to lace MMA gloves, or is he a preternatural phenom, like a Jon Jones or (to a lesser extent) a TJ Dillashaw, one who’ll rise to the occasion? The only thing we can say about him with some degree of certainty is that he is phenomenally talented; a truly gifted fighter who’ll be here to stay towards the top of the division regardless of outcome. And that he has truly terrible tattoos. Erstwhile BE alum Brent Brookhouse put it best when he said something like: “He’s has a tattoo of a gun tucked into his waistband and it still manages to only be his 13th worst tattoo.”

What’s at stake?

David: Other than the title? If Cody wins, I’m kind of scared of the Fred Durst level of complexity he’ll display on the mic. But more than that, I just can’t help but root for Cruz. It’s not even about Cody. Dominick is an essential presence in MMA. His analysis of Cody’s breakdown during their interview should be included in college Childhood Learning and Development textbooks. A loss wouldn’t make Dom go away, but his words might be a little less piercing, drowned out by the sound of Kongian chest thumps, and Kombucha endorsements coming from Alpha Male HQ.

Phil: Dominic is the focal point of the bantamweight division, in more ways than one. If Cody wins, there’ll be the inevitable “grudge match” with Dillashaw, or the weirdness of a title fight with Lineker, but I significantly doubt it gains much traction with the fans. In his new glacial trash-talking incarnation, Cruz is increasingly popular in the division, and his continued reign represents the best chance for getting it some recognition.

Where do they want it?

David: Cruz, as we’ve come to understand and appreciate, is a creature of violent migration and limber locomotion. He knows how to calibrate angles and pivots for maximum efficiency through pressure or when counterattacking. There is really no other fighter like him. A lot of fighters move, dance, and angle, but nobody is defined from head to toe by it like Cruz. Cruz’ dedication to the craft of continuity is what explains why he has the best upstairs striking defense in the UFC: to the tune of an 85 percent rate of punches avoided against. So much movement means something must be sacrificed. And that’s his power. However, he’s grown over the years in this regard, planting his feet for certain strikes and honing his own movement to support strikes with better posture, and thus, a little more pop. Still, the facet that amplifies his strengths is the best knee tap takedown in the business.

Phil: Cruz is all about misdirection- about forcing commitments from the opponent so that he can understand what they’re going to do. Dart, pivot, back-step, stance switch, and a lot of feints all serve to gather him data. Thus, he won’t commit to an attack until he’s absolutely convinced by the opponent’s reactions that their response will fail. This is an approach which admittedly has its flaws- it requires that Cruz “contains” the opponent’s game in his mind; that he has a kind of holistic image of how they work. Because he takes so many stylistic risks (ducking, losing the connection from his hips through to his shoulders to disguise which way he’s going, running backwards with his hands down) and because his power is relatively low (the aforementioned lack of connection), it requires that his data-gathering process is almost flawless. Luckily, he’s a genius, and also coincidentally a huge, tireless and incredibly tough 135er.

David: Garbrandt operates unlike most power punchers, in that he’s not constrained by a perfect plan tomorrow philosophy. Instead his good plan today flow allows him to land power strikes naturally, finding opportunities from the simple mechanics of pressure to the more complex strategy of landing going in reverse. He can counterpunch effectively, and uses short but swift economic movements to find angles for strikes. There’s an effective proximity he’s capable of that few fighters can match.

Cruz isn’t half as stationary as Mizugaki, but the fact that Cody can put together multiple strikes with power Dom isn’t used to makes this more of a nailbiter than even Cruz’ most ardent fans might admit.

Garbrandt is pretty adept at chambering small kicks work from a distance while using those same kicks to setup pressure.

Phil: The thing which makes it very difficult to foresee how much success Garbrandt has is how pared down his game is. A few leg kicks to shepherd the opponent into a straight line engagement, and then a surging left hook-straight right combination (or vice versa from the other stance). Garbrandt occasionally throws some more wacky strikes, but his meat and potatoes is exceptionally… meaty and starchy in comparison to what Cruz brings to the table? He does have some clear flaws which spell trouble for him, though- he tends to follow opponents instead of cutting them off, waiting for them to enter into his space and relying on his blistering handspeed and power to do the heavy lifting. If he can’t cut Cruz off effectively, then he’s going to have to either counter the champion on the way in (very hard), or blitz him as Cruz angles off (a bit easier, but he’ll have to worry about Cruz’s own counter right hand which he throws on the retreat, or the counter knee tap. I think the takedown is what gets play, personally- Garbrandt’s takedown defense has never been broken, but it’s never really been tested either. If he’s forced to blitz, then Cruz likely puts him on his back.

Insight from past fights

David: Nothing that really highlights the specific interaction between these two. Cody didn’t get a chance to challenge himself against Mizugaki, who was just a dreadful matchup. But he’s grown from fight to fight in small ways. Cruz is at the absolute pinnacle. On paper, his win over Faber doesn’t stand out but I think two things argue otherwise 1) Faber is really good and has actually improved with age and 2) his strength of misdirection was firing on all salsa dancing cylinders.

Phil: There are three strikes which have historically given any kind of trouble to Cruz. Low, sweeping hooks (occasionally Bowles), striking off clinch breaks (Faber) and low kicks (Dillashaw). None of these are currently particularly major parts of Garbrandt’s repertoire – can he add them?

X-Factors

David: This. 100 percent this. This isn’t garden variety trash talk. This is Copernicus setting the record straight on your archaic attempts at puncturing his psychology. The fact that he even squeezes in “come on, turd” makes it better because I’m a sucker for half baked insults.

Phil: I think that was, with the possible exception of McGregor-Stephens, the most one-sided verbal interaction I’ve seen in the sport. Just absolutely brutal. I rarely take much notice of trash talk as an X-factor, but Cruz has genuinely gotten under the younger fighter’s skin.

Prognostication

David: Cruz just has a ridiculous amount of options. And he’s unflappable. Cody has facemelting power, but he doesn’t have the kind of IQ to capitalize on the distance Cruz will be manipulating at every turn. This matchup is a combination of bad timing (Cody isn’t quite there yet in terms of fight identity) and tough matchmaking (too much deliberation required for Garbrandt to successfully pressure). Plus dat knee-tap. Dominick Cruz by Decision.

Phil: As I keep saying, it’s very hard to predict how Garbrandt looks. If Cruz misjudges one of his bumping entries and ducks into a hook? If Garbrandt catches him running backwards and Cruz underestimates just how blazing fast he is? Sure, Cody can hurt him. But Cruz is indefatigable, and it’s very hard to imagine that Garbrandt has added the necessary depth to his game in order to go 5 rounds with the most frustrating opponent in MMA. Dominick Cruz by unanimous decision.