Marcin Tybura and Andrei Arlovski this June 17, 2017 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore.

Single sentence summary

Phil: Andrei Arlovski relies on his trusty right hand to save him from re-enacting that it in Animal Farm where Boxer gets carted off to the glue factory

David: Arlovski’s last stand to see if punching from a coffin can work.

Stats

Record: Andrei Arlovski 25-14-1 NC Marcin Tybura 15-2

Odds: Andrei Arlovski +200 Marcin Tybura -220

History / Introduction to the fighters

Phil: I don’t think anyone ever really thought Arlovski could make it to a title shot in his latest run in the UFC, even when he went on that brief streak. Still less people thought that a title shot would be anything more than a brutal shellacking. Weirdly enough, I think we’ve reverted to the mean for expectations for Andrei at this point. Most people thought his UFC run would be a sad succession of brutal KOs and… well… that’s what we’re getting right now.

David: Arlovski somehow rose up from becoming livestock in Strikeforce. It was a quality about face that saw him beat some really legit fighters and now we’re back where we started, wondering how religious his rapture face will look.

Phil: Pity the poor “heavyweight prospect.” For all that we mock the heavyweight division, it really is a vast step up from the vast, vast majority of what it’s possible to get on the regional circuit. Thus, even talented fighters can struggle when they dip their toes into the UFC and find themselves fighting men who are far tougher and more well-prepared than anyone they’ve fought. That happened to Tybura when he fought Tim “Proto-Rothwell” Johnson. Since then, though, he’s racked up two pretty impressive KOs.

David: Tybura is a modest prospect – got into mixed martial arts late, but came in with a solid pedigree. Now’s fighting in the UFC, having lost to heavyweight droogs, and having beaten heavyweight droogs.

What’s at stake?

David: Just some rent money and enough Reebok coupons to buy a few Cracker Jack toys.

Phil: Ehhh. We’re basically at the stage in Arlovski’s career where he could beat lower level heavies, but he costs too much. So they’re going to do their best to chop his popularity into parts for young prospects. I guess the winner could feasibly get Mark Hunt.

Where do they want it?

Phil: Andrei Arlovski has a right hand. He’s still relatively athletic. He’s a willing clinch fighter but a dreadfully inert one. His defense and chin are both lacking.

We’ve previewed a lot of Arlovski (he gets on a lot of co-main event spots!) and there really isn’t anything more to say about him. He used to be more interesting than this, but now he is perhaps the most boring fighter in MMA to preview, beyond even Roy Nelson.

David: I’d imagine Arlovski’s flow chart reads something like: jab feint, inside leg kick, pause, right hand, pause, right hand, BIG RIGHT HAND – which may not even be his own. He’s a paper thin fighter who possesses enough athleticism to get away with no habits to speak of. Actually, that’s not true. ‘Enough’ is insulting. This is a grown man who rocked and hurt another grown man by landing a punch while literally flat on his back – against Marcio Cruz. Pe Da Pano – all nicknames would be converted to Portuguese by the way – was never anything special but that was still kind of incredible.

Phil: Marcin Tybura does not look like a particularly athletic, nimble heavyweight, but he’s been making his bones in recent fights off a light-footed outside kickboxing game. His ability to send out quick, snapping kicks at the beginning or the end of combinations is particularly impressive. It’s also laudable because he was largely a clinch, trip and backtake fighter on the regional scene, and it was clear in the Johnson fight that that particular style was going to hit a hard power barrier in the UFC. That he’s managed to put something as coherent as his current approach together in a relatively short amount of time speaks well of his possibilities. Cardio and footwork potshotter is a style which has some success in lower divisions (Tecia Torres or Edgar), I can’t see why it wouldn’t work well against the more lumbering chaps up at heavyweight.

David: I’ve always kind of appreciated what Tybura tries to do. Heavyweights tend to experience philosophy overlap – like a combine test at the draft, fighters approach efficiency with a zero sum tally. The strongest wins. Just bleed. And all that. Tybura brings a hint of class to the cage with lightweight tactics. His kicks form the base of his attack, creating a ripple effect against an opponent’s rhythm, disrupting it from midrange. Despite his approach, you have to wonder if he’s not simply bringing a knife to a gun fight.

Insight from past fights

Phil: If no knockouts are forthcoming, Arlovski shares a tendency with his fellow right-handed KO machine Woodley that he is capable of putting on dismally boring performances. His fights against Frank Mir and Brendan Schaub were frankly hideous. If Tybura decides that he wants to fight Arlovski in the clinch, he’s not an active striker there either (relying on trips and his solid base), so we could get three rounds of sweaty jockeying for position.

David: Yea but remember his fight with Travis Browne? Arlovski vs. Browne might be my favorite fight of the last five years. It’s got everything: a backhand punch knockdown, fish dances, Arlovski’s oh shit face, and Joe Rogan shouting loud enough to crack his larynx in half. That has nothing to do with insight into this fight but it’s worth noting. Unlike this fight.

X-Factors

Phil: Meh. Arlovski has moved out of Jackson’s for this fight and is training in Florida. By this stage I feel like Arlovski is as well-trained and professional as he’s likely to get. I don’t think it’ll make much of a difference.

David: Was Arlovski focused or did he spend part of his training camp starring in another Universal Soldier movie I don’t know about? The last time he did that he nearly got killed in Strikeforce. Just saying.

Prognostication

Phil: I don’t really trust Arlovski to finish people, and Tybura at least demonstrated that he is extremely tough in the Johnson fight. I can’t really see an ageing, incredibly predictable Arlovski putting the younger fighter away. His tendency to back straight up with his hands down probably means he gets head kicked at some point. Marcin Tybura by TKO, round 2.

David: Arlovski actively getting slower is a big part of why he’s had so little success. He’s had some incredibly tough competition, granted, but he simply doesn’t do enough to make me feel comfortable picking him over a man who will stick and move. Marcin Tybura by Decision.